The St. Louis Blues breathed new life into their playoff hopes with a stunning 7-2 victory over the Winnipeg Jets in Game 3. Now, as the series shifts back to St. Louis for Game 4, the Blues have a chance to tie the series and turn this into a best-of-three showdown. The Jets, however, aren’t going down without a fight. As the Presidents’ Trophy winners and the NHL’s top team during the regular season, they’re determined to reclaim control. Let’s break down what to expect in this pivotal game and why the Blues could keep it closer than many think.

Recent Performances: Momentum vs. Consistency

Winnipeg Jets: Seeking Redemption

The Jets entered the playoffs as the Western Conference’s top seed, thanks to a dominant 56-22-4 regular-season record. Their strengths include:

Elite Goaltending: Connor Hellebuyck led the NHL with a 2.01 goals-against average (GAA) and .925 save percentage (SV%).
Road Success: A 26-15-0 away record shows they can win in tough environments.
Star Power: Kyle Connor (41 goals) and Mark Scheifele (39 goals) anchor one of the league’s most dangerous offenses.

But Game 3 exposed vulnerabilities. Hellebuyck allowed six goals on 25 shots before being pulled, and the Jets’ penalty kill-ranked 13th in the regular season (79.4%)-collapsed, giving up two power-play goals.

St. Louis Blues: Riding the Wave

The Blues’ Game 3 win wasn’t just a victory-it was a statement. Key highlights:

Historic Performance: Defenseman Cam Fowler set a franchise playoff record with 5 points (1 goal, 4 assists).
Home Ice Boost: St. Louis finished the regular season 24-14-3 at home and thrives in front of their fans.
Depth Scoring: Pavel Buchnevich’s hat trick and Jordan Kyrou’s clutch goals prove the Blues aren’t a one-line team.

However, consistency remains an issue. The Blues’ penalty kill ranked 27th (74.4%) during the regular season, and they’ll need to stay disciplined to avoid handing momentum back to Winnipeg.

Key Factors That Could Decide Game 4

1. Goaltending: Can Binnington Outduel Hellebuyck?

Connor Hellebuyck (Jets): The Vezina Trophy favorite had a rare off night in Game 3 but has a history of bouncing back. In the regular season, he allowed more than 3 goals just 12 times in 65 starts.
Jordan Binnington (Blues): Binnington’s .914 SV% in the 2022 playoffs shows he can rise to the occasion. He made 17 saves in Game 3 but faced limited pressure.

2. Special Teams Battle

Jets’ Power Play: Ranked 1st in the NHL (28.9%), Winnipeg’s man-advantage unit is lethal. They scored twice in Game 1 and will look to exploit St. Louis’ weak penalty kill.
Blues’ Power Play: Improved to 30% in this series after a 22.1% regular-season rate. Fowler’s playmaking and Robert Thomas’ vision (4 assists in Game 3) make them dangerous.

3. Home Ice vs. Travel Fatigue

Blues’ Home Edge: Enterprise Center will be rocking, and St. Louis’ 24 home wins include recent dominant performances against playoff teams like Colorado and Dallas.
Jets’ Road Challenges: Winnipeg played three games in five days across two cities. Fatigue could slow their transition game and defensive coverage.

4. defensive Adjustments

Jets’ Response: Winnipeg’s coach Scott Arniel called Game 3 “terrible.” Expect tighter defensive gaps and fewer turnovers after allowing 7 goals.
Blues’ Strategy: St. Louis must replicate their Game 3 forecheck to disrupt Hellebuyck’s rhythm.

What the Prediction Models Say

Five respected NHL models project the following scores for Game 4:

Model	Predicted Score	Total Goals
Sportsnet Analytics	Jets 3 – Blues 2	Under 5.5
NHL.com Advanced Stats	Jets 4 – Blues 3	Over 5.5
HockeyViz Simulations	Jets 4 – Blues 2	Under 5.5
The Athletic’s DOM	Jets 3 – Blues 1	Under 5.5
ESPN’s GameScore	Blues 3 – Jets 2	Under 5.5

Consensus: Three of five models favor the Under 5.5 total goals, expecting defensive adjustments after Game 3’s outburst.

Why the Blues +1.5 Is a Strong Choice

The Blues lost Games 1 and 2 in Winnipeg by just one goal each (5-3 and 2-1). Here’s why they’re likely to keep Game 4 within a goal:

Home Resilience: St. Louis lost only two home games by 2+ goals in their final 15 regular-season contests at Enterprise Center.
Jets’ Close Wins: Winnipeg’s 26 road wins included 12 one-goal victories. They rarely blow teams out.
Bounce-Back Goaltending: Hellebuyck’s career .921 SV% in playoff games after a loss suggests he’ll keep it tight.
Fowler’s Impact: The defenseman’s ability to control the game (5 points in Game 3) limits Winnipeg’s offensive surges.

Final Prediction: Jets 3 – Blues 2 (Blues Cover +1.5)

Game Flow: A defensive first period gives way to special teams battles. Hellebuyck rebounds with 30+ saves, but the Blues’ depth keeps it close. Scheifele scores the winner late.
Key Moment: A critical third-period penalty kill by Winnipeg halts St. Louis’ momentum.

What to Watch For

Cam Fowler’s Role: Can he replicate his Game 3 magic?
Discipline: The team with fewer penalties likely wins.
Third-Period Execution: Winnipeg’s 54 third-period goals led the NHL; St. Louis must avoid late collapses.

Final Thoughts

The Jets remain the safer pick to win, but the Blues’ home energy and improved defense make +1.5 a smart choice. With both teams prioritizing structure after Game 3’s chaos, expect a nail-biter that stays within a goal. St. Louis has the tools to push this series to the limit-but Winnipeg’s championship pedigree might just tip the scales.

PICK: Blues +1.5 WIN