Thursday night’s matchup between the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics brings fans an exciting end to their series. The Rangers, currently at the top of the AL West, want to finish strong, while the Athletics are hungry for their first series win at their temporary home in West Sacramento. With big names on the mound and recent offensive sparks from both teams, this game is shaping up to be a potential high-scoring battle.
Pitching Matchup: Experience Meets Youth
Texas sends veteran ace Jacob deGrom to the mound. The two-time Cy Young Award winner is slowly working his way back from Tommy John surgery. So far in 2024, deGrom has a 0-1 record and a solid 3.32 ERA, striking out 15 batters across 19 innings. In his latest outing, he looked sharp against the Dodgers, allowing just one run over seven innings while pumping 97 mph fastballs and mixing in his signature slider.
However, deGrom has had trouble against Oakland in the past, with a 5.40 ERA in two career starts. This could be something to watch. Will his dominance return, or will his struggles against the A’s continue?
On the other side, the Athletics will start rookie J.T. Ginn, who has quietly impressed this season with a 3.60 ERA. Ginn specializes in ground balls—getting 48% of his outs on the ground—which helps keep the ball in the park. That’s important, especially against a power-hitting team like Texas. Last time he faced the Rangers, he gave up only two runs over 5.1 innings. The question is whether he can hold back a lineup that already has 28 home runs in the season.
Offensive Breakdown: Firepower vs. Momentum
The Texas Rangers’ offense has been on a tear. They are averaging over 5 runs a game and have homered in 10 straight games. Marcus Semien and Wyatt Langford have combined for 11 home runs, anchoring a deep and dangerous batting order. They’ve already roughed up Oakland’s pitchers earlier in the series, scoring 8 runs in the opener.
But there’s a concern—Texas’ bullpen is stretched thin. After a rough outing by Kumar Rocker on Wednesday, where he lasted only 1.2 innings and gave up 5 earned runs, the relievers have had to pick up extra work. That fatigue could show up in the later innings.
Meanwhile, the Athletics are showing signs of life at the plate. They jumped out with a 5-run first inning on Wednesday and have been batting .280 over their last five games. Catcher Shea Langeliers is leading the way with a .310 average, and Lawrence Butler has chipped in with 4 home runs. Add in some excitement from rookie Nick Kurtz—who drove in a run in his MLB debut—and you have a lineup starting to find its rhythm. Oakland’s bullpen has also been a pleasant surprise, ranking 10th in the majors with a 3.75 ERA, which could come in handy if this game stays close.
Game Environment and Intangibles
This game will be played at Sutter Health Park, a fairly neutral stadium when it comes to scoring. The weather forecast shows clear skies and a comfortable 65°F—ideal for both hitters and pitchers. Travel-wise, the Rangers have been solid on the road with a 7-3 record, but they might feel the effects of recent travel and bullpen fatigue. Oakland, meanwhile, is rested and hoping to use that to their advantage.
What the Models Say: Expect Offense
Several trusted baseball prediction models are all pointing in the same direction—expect this game to hit the over 8.5 runs.
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Dimers Pro predicts a 5-3 win for Texas, citing that both lineups can take advantage of shaky pitching.
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FanGraphs sees a 6-4 game in favor of Texas, pointing out the Rangers’ power and Oakland’s improving contact hitting.
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Baseball Reference projects a 7-5 Rangers win, influenced by deGrom’s past struggles against the A’s.
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Action Network recommends betting the over based on recent scoring trends and bullpen concerns.
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ESPN Analytics also expects a 6-4 scoreline, saying high strikeout games lead to more hitter-friendly counts and rallies.
When five different models agree on a high-scoring outcome, it’s worth paying attention.
Key Players to Watch
Marcus Semien has a strong track record against J.T. Ginn, going 5-for-12 with two home runs. He’s one of those players who can change the game with one swing. For the Athletics, Shea Langeliers has been red-hot and is a crucial piece in the middle of the lineup. Watch for how he handles deGrom’s fastball and slider combination.
On the mound, deGrom’s fastball will be the key. If he locates it well, he can dominate. But if the Athletics time it up early, he could be in trouble. Ginn, meanwhile, must keep the ball on the ground. Fly balls against the Rangers usually don’t stay in the park.
Game Flow Prediction
Expect a tight game early, with both starters settling in during the first few innings. In the middle innings, Texas may get on the board with a home run from Semien and an RBI double from Langford. Oakland should answer back, likely through Langeliers or Butler driving in runs. As the game wears on, Texas’ bullpen fatigue could allow Oakland to tie it up. But in the end, Texas’ power likely gives them the edge with a late-inning homer sealing the win.
Final Score Prediction: Rangers 6, Athletics 4
Why the Over 8.5 Runs is a Smart Bet
Here’s why you should feel confident about betting the over:
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Texas brings power: 28 home runs in just 22 games means they don’t need many chances to put runs on the board.
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Oakland has momentum: Their recent .280 team batting average shows they’re seeing the ball well.
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Pitching questions: deGrom’s history vs. Oakland is shaky, and Ginn is still learning how to handle MLB-level hitters.
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Bullpen fatigue: Texas’ relievers are worn out from a short start Wednesday, and even Oakland’s strong pen is vulnerable to the long ball.
Summary
The Rangers have the star power and offensive strength to win this game, especially if deGrom can keep the A’s in check for six or more innings. But the Athletics won’t go down without a fight. They’re swinging the bat well, and with home momentum and a few hot hitters, they could make things interesting. Overall, expect a competitive game with lots of scoring—making the over 8.5 total runs the smart and exciting pick.
PICK: over 8.5 total runs
