Today’s matchup at American Family Field features the visiting Oakland Athletics facing the Milwaukee Brewers in what promises to be an intriguing pitching duel. With the Brewers sitting at 11-9 and second in the NL Central, they come in as -130 favorites against the underdog Athletics at +109. Let’s break down this matchup comprehensively to identify betting value and predict the outcome.
Starting Pitcher Analysis
Luis Severino (Athletics): The 31-year-old right-hander has struggled to find his footing in 2025, posting an 0-3 record with a 4.01 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across 24.2 innings. Severino has recorded 21 strikeouts against 10 walks this season, showing decent but not elite command. After signing a three-year deal with Oakland, Severino has experienced contextual downgrades that have impacted his performance. Last season with the Mets, he incorporated a sinker as a primary pitch and switched from a slider to a sweeper, which initially lowered his strikeout rate to 21.2% before he improved to 24.8% in his final 13 starts.
Chad Patrick (Brewers): The 26-year-old has impressed in his limited major league action this season, compiling a 1-0 record with a stellar 2.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. What’s particularly noteworthy is Patrick’s dramatic home/away split – he’s been nearly untouchable at American Family Field with a 0.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 10 innings compared to an 18.00 ERA on the road. Patrick features an unorthodox pitch mix, relying heavily on his 88-mph cutter and upper-80s changeup while sometimes throwing his fastball less than 30% of the time. His excellent command has translated well from his impressive 2024 Triple-A campaign where he posted a 2.90 ERA with 145 strikeouts in 136.1 innings.
Injury Impact
Athletics: The A’s are navigating several significant injuries that have weakened their roster. Second baseman Zack Gelof remains out with a hook of the hamate fracture in his right hand, though he’s expected back in May. The pitching staff is missing Ken Waldichuk (left elbow sprain, expected June return) and Brady Basso (left shoulder strain, expected late May). These absences have contributed to Oakland’s early-season struggles.
Brewers: Milwaukee has its own injury challenges, though they may be getting reinforcements soon. RHP Tobias Myers completed a rehab assignment on April 18, throwing five scoreless innings for Triple-A Nashville, and could be activated soon. Brandon Woodruff is progressing in his return from shoulder surgery, having thrown 68 pitches over four innings in his second rehab start. Connor Thomas remains sidelined with left elbow arthritis without a clear return timeline. Despite these pitching injuries, the Brewers’ depth has allowed them to remain competitive.
Offensive Comparison
The Brewers’ lineup has been producing consistently in 2025, led by outfielder S. Frelick (.319/.413/.464, .877 OPS) and second baseman B. Turang (.313/.349/.438, .787 OPS). Young outfielder J. Chourio provides power with 5 home runs and an .818 OPS. The Athletics’ offense has been respectable but unspectacular, averaging 4.55 runs per game with a team batting average of .254 and .744 OPS. Their -7 run differential suggests they’ve underperformed relative to their offensive output.
Bullpen Analysis
Milwaukee’s bullpen has been a strength, anchored by relievers J. Koenig (0.75 WHIP, 1.93 ERA) and A. Uribe (1.03 WHIP, 0.93 ERA). G. Anderson has been dependable with a 3.18 ERA across 11.1 innings, though the unit does have some vulnerabilities, particularly J. Payamps who’s struggled with a troubling 19.06 ERA. Oakland’s relief corps has been middle-of-the-pack with a collective 4.30 ERA and 1.455 WHIP.
Ballpark Factors and Conditions
American Family Field traditionally plays as a hitter-friendly venue, particularly for power hitters. However, this advantage may be neutralized by Chad Patrick’s remarkable home performance this season. The retractable roof ensures weather won’t be a factor regardless of conditions in Milwaukee today.
Prediction and Betting Recommendation
The pitching matchup favors the Brewers significantly, especially with Patrick’s dominant home splits and Severino’s early-season struggles. Milwaukee also holds advantages in lineup consistency and bullpen performance. While Oakland has shown the ability to score runs, they’ll face a difficult challenge against Patrick at American Family Field.
Predicted Final Score: Brewers 5, Athletics 2
Confidence Level: Medium-High
Recommended Bet: Brewers -130 moneyline offers solid value given Patrick’s home dominance and Milwaukee’s superior bullpen. The under (8.5 runs) also merits consideration, as Patrick should limit Oakland’s offense, and the total has historically stayed under in pitcher-friendly matchups at American Family Field.
Key Matchup to Watch: Chad Patrick vs. Oakland’s right-handed power hitters. Patrick’s cutter-changeup combination has been particularly effective against right-handed batters, and his ability to neutralize the heart of Oakland’s order will likely determine the game’s outcome.
The Brewers’ home-field advantage, combined with Patrick’s remarkable home performance and a well-rested bullpen, should prove decisive in what projects as a relatively low-scoring affair dominated by Milwaukee’s pitching.
