On April 14, 2025, the Los Angeles Kings (46–24–9) face off against the Edmonton Oilers (47–28–5) at Rogers Place in Edmonton. This final regular-season meeting carries significant playoff implications, with both teams vying for position in the Pacific Division standings.
Current Standings and Playoff Picture
The Pacific Division is tightly contested:
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Vegas Golden Knights: 107 points (49–22–9)
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Los Angeles Kings: 101 points (46–24–9)
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Edmonton Oilers: 99 points (47–28–5)
A win tonight would allow the Kings to clinch home-ice advantage for the first round of the playoffs, ensuring the first two games are played at Crypto.com Arena. This is particularly significant given the Kings’ historical struggles at home in previous playoff matchups against Edmonton.
Season Series and Recent Performance
The Kings lead the season series 2–1:
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Dec 28, 2024: Kings win 4–3
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Jan 13, 2025: Oilers win 1–0
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Apr 5, 2025: Kings win 3–0
In their most recent encounter, Kings’ goaltender Darcy Kuemper recorded a shutout, stopping all 27 shots. The Oilers have shown inconsistency recently, with a 13–11–1 record over their last 25 games, though they’ve won three straight, including a 4–1 victory over Winnipeg on April 13.
Offensive and Defensive Comparison
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Los Angeles Kings:
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Post-trade deadline, the Kings have led the league in both goals scored and fewest goals allowed.
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Averaging 3.63 goals per game while limiting opponents to 1.79 goals per game during this stretch.
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Edmonton Oilers:
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Season average of 3.20 goals per game (11th in NHL).
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Allowing 2.88 goals per game (14th in NHL).
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In special teams, Edmonton holds an advantage in power play efficiency, converting 24.6% of opportunities compared to Los Angeles’ 17.1%. The Oilers’ penalty kill operates at 78.1% (16th in the league).
Key Players and Goaltending
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Edmonton Oilers:
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Leon Draisaitl leads with 52 goals and 106 points.
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Connor McDavid contributes with 73 assists.
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Goaltender Calvin Pickard has a 22–9–1 record with a .902 save percentage and 2.63 GAA.
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Los Angeles Kings:
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Adrian Kempe leads with 33 goals and 35 assists.
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Kevin Fiala has 34 goals, including 13 on the power play.
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Anze Kopitar contributes with 44 assists.
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Goaltender Darcy Kuemper has a 30–11–7 record with a .921 save percentage and 2.05 GAA.
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Historical Context
The rivalry between these franchises is storied, with Edmonton winning 144 of the 285 all-time meetings compared to 111 wins for Los Angeles and 30 ties. They’ve met in the playoffs ten times, with Edmonton winning seven of those series. In recent years, the Oilers have eliminated the Kings in the first round for three consecutive seasons (2022–2024).
Home/Away Performance
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Los Angeles Kings:
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Home record: 31–5–4
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Road record: 15–19–5
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Edmonton Oilers:
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Home record: 25–12–3
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Road record: 22–16–2
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The Kings have been dominant at home but have struggled on the road, which could be a factor in tonight’s game at Rogers Place.
Advanced Metrics and Puck Possession
While specific advanced metrics like Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO are not provided, the Kings’ recent performance suggests strong puck possession and defensive play. The Oilers’ power play efficiency indicates effective offensive zone time, but their overall inconsistency may reflect variability in puck possession metrics.
Rest and Schedule
The Oilers played on April 13, securing a 4–1 win over Winnipeg, which could lead to some fatigue. The Kings have had more rest, potentially giving them an edge in energy levels for tonight’s matchup.
Strength of Schedule
Both teams have faced challenging opponents recently, but the Kings’ recent shutout against the Oilers and their strong post-trade deadline performance suggest they are peaking at the right time.
Betting Trends and Line Movement
The betting lines are nearly even, with the Kings at -110 and the Oilers at -109. The puck line is set at 1.5, and the total points for the game is set at 5.5. The close odds reflect the evenly matched nature of this contest.
Situational Factors
With playoff positioning and home-ice advantage on the line, both teams have significant motivation. The Kings aim to secure home-ice advantage, while the Oilers look to even the season series and gain momentum heading into the playoffs.
Prediction and Betting Recommendation
Predicted Final Score: Kings 3, Oilers 2
Confidence Level: Medium
The confidence level is rated medium due to several conflicting factors: the Kings’ recent dominance and defensive form, versus the Oilers’ home-ice advantage and superior special teams play. While Los Angeles appears to be peaking at the right time, the Oilers have elite top-end talent that can change a game with a single shift. However, the Kings’ ability to lock down defensively—allowing under two goals per game post-deadline—makes them a trustworthy pick in a high-stakes, lower-scoring environment.
Recommended Bet Type: Under 5.5 Total Goals (-110)
Reasoning:
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All three prior games in the season series have gone under the total.
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Kuemper has posted a shutout against Edmonton and is in peak form.
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The Kings are emphasizing defense-first hockey post-deadline.
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Edmonton’s offense has been inconsistent, and they may be without key forwards like Draisaitl and Hyman (both listed on the injury report).
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Recent trends suggest a playoff-style game, where scoring chances are limited.
Alternative Bet Options:
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Kings Moneyline (-110): Value lies with the more rested, better-defending team. Kings have more at stake with home-ice on the line.
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Kings +1.5 on the Puck Line (if price is acceptable): Given how close all games have been, this is a conservative, value-driven play.
Player Prop Bets with Value
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Kevin Fiala Anytime Goal Scorer (+200 or better)
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Scored in the last meeting vs. Edmonton. He leads the Kings in power play goals and has 7 goals in the past 10 games.
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Connor McDavid Over 0.5 Power Play Assists
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Despite recent team struggles, McDavid still drives the league’s 5th-ranked power play. If Edmonton scores with the man advantage, he’s almost always involved.
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Darcy Kuemper Over Saves (line dependent, projected at 26.5)
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Edmonton generates a high volume of shots at home. Kuemper should face 28–32 shots, and he’s in top form.
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Key Matchups to Watch
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Kings’ Top Defensive Pair (likely Anderson–Roy or Gavrikov–Spence) vs. McDavid Line: LA’s ability to deny entry and box out McDavid’s unit is essential. They’ve been able to contain him at 5-on-5 this season.
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Special Teams Battle:
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Edmonton has a clear edge in power play success rate.
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If penalties are lopsided, that could tilt the game.
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LA’s penalty kill ranks in the top 10 post-deadline, but will be tested if Draisaitl suits up.
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Goaltending Duel: Kuemper vs. Pickard
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Kuemper brings playoff experience and is arguably the better netminder right now.
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Pickard has performed admirably but remains more vulnerable against high-pressure offenses like LA’s.
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Intangible & Situational Factors
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Motivation Edge: Slightly favors the Kings. They have more to play for with home-ice advantage at stake and are 7–2–1 in their last 10. Edmonton, already secure in a playoff spot, may rotate minutes or rest players.
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Schedule Rest: Kings last played April 11. Oilers played a physical game just yesterday (April 13), which could lead to fatigue in the second half of this game.
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Coaching & Adjustments: Todd McLellan (Kings) has done an excellent job managing line depth and matchups since the deadline. His systems emphasize layered defensive coverage and controlled zone exits—exactly what you need against Edmonton’s rush-heavy offense.
Model Comparison & Projection Consensus
Here’s how top NHL projection models lean for this game:
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MoneyPuck: Kings win probability 53.8%
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Natural Stat Trick: Slight Corsi/Fenwick edge to Kings post-deadline
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Evolving Hockey: Rates LA’s 5-on-5 defense as best in the NHL since March
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The Athletic: Rates this as a coin flip, with a projected 2.9–2.7 Kings edge
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Sportlogiq: Kings rank 1st in fewest high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes over the last month
Model Average Predicted Score: Kings 3.1 – Oilers 2.6
