The red-hot New York Mets (9-5, 1st in NL East) travel to Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento to face the struggling Athletics (6-9, 5th in AL West) today. With the Mets installed as -139 road favorites and the Athletics as +118 home underdogs, this pitching matchup between Kodai Senga and Luis Severino deserves close scrutiny. The total sits at 9 runs with a standard 1.5 run line. Let’s dive into the key factors that will decide this contest.
Starting Pitcher Analysis
Kodai Senga (NYM)
Senga has been impressive to begin the 2025 campaign, posting a 1-1 record with a stellar 1.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across his first two starts1. His ability to miss bats remains elite with 12 strikeouts in 10 innings pitched. Breaking down his recent outings:
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April 7 vs. Miami: WIN (5.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K)
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April 1 @ Miami: LOSS (5.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K)
What stands out is Senga’s consistency in working five solid innings in both appearances while displaying excellent command with only 3 walks across 10 innings. His career numbers (2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 223 K in 181.2 IP) demonstrate that his early 2025 success is no fluke.
While we don’t have Senga’s advanced metrics for 2025, his career performance suggests he typically outperforms traditional ERA when viewed through the lens of fielding-independent metrics like FIP and xFIP, which focus purely on outcomes directly under pitcher control (strikeouts, walks, home runs)3.
Luis Severino (ATH)
Severino has struggled to find his footing with Oakland this season, posting an 0-2 record through his first three starts. While detailed pitching statistics are limited, his offensive contributions (5 doubles, ranking 2nd in AL) suggest he’s been taking matters into his own hands at the plate. The former Yankees standout will need to rediscover his dominant form against a potent Mets lineup.
Team Offensive Comparison
The Mets’ offense has been powered by first baseman Pete Alonso, who’s off to a scorching start with a .347 batting average, .450 OBP, and team-leading 18 RBIs. Brandon Nimmo provides additional power with a team-leading 4 home runs.
Oakland counters with impressive rookie shortstop Jacob Wilson (.368 average, 21 hits) and slugging first baseman Tyler Soderstrom, who leads the Athletics with 6 home runs, 11 RBIs, and a .397 OBP. Soderstrom’s power numbers are particularly noteworthy as he ranks among AL leaders in several categories.
Bullpen Performance
This matchup features a striking bullpen disparity that heavily favors the Mets:
New York boasts the third-best bullpen ERA in baseball at a remarkable 2.03, while allowing just 2 home runs in their 53 innings of work. Their 0.98 WHIP is elite, indicating few baserunners and consistent relief pitching.
Oakland’s bullpen has been considerably less effective, posting a 4.53 ERA (10th in AL) with a troubling 1.53 WHIP. While they’ve accumulated 68 strikeouts (showing swing-and-miss potential), their 28 walks and 6 home runs allowed highlight command issues that could prove problematic in high-leverage situations.
Injury Considerations
Both teams are dealing with significant injury lists. The Mets are missing key contributors like Jeff McNeil, Francisco Alvarez, and multiple pitchers including Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. Oakland is without second baseman Zack Gelof and several pitchers, most notably Ken Waldichuk.
While these absences impact both clubs, the Mets’ superior depth has allowed them to weather their injuries more effectively, as evidenced by their first-place standing.
Weather and Ballpark Factors
Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento typically plays as a neutral venue without extreme tendencies toward hitters or pitchers. Mid-April in Northern California generally provides mild conditions without significant weather impacts.
Prediction and Betting Analysis
Based on the available data, the Mets hold distinct advantages in starting pitching (with Senga’s superior early-season form), bullpen performance (2.03 ERA vs. 4.53 ERA), and overall team quality (9-5 vs. 6-9). Despite playing on the road, these factors justify their favorite status.
Predicted Score: New York Mets 5, Athletics 3
Confidence Level: Medium (limited by incomplete data on Severino and advanced metrics)
Recommended Bet: The Mets moneyline (-139) offers the clearest value. While laying -139 isn’t ideal, the significant bullpen advantage makes this price reasonable. The Mets’ superior pitching should keep the game under the 9-run total, making UNDER 9 a secondary recommendation.
Key Matchup: The decisive confrontation will be how Oakland’s power hitters (particularly Soderstrom) fare against Senga’s elite arsenal. If Senga can limit damage from the Athletics’ few dangerous bats, the Mets should secure the victory.
Value Prop Bet: Consider Pete Alonso to record an RBI (-110 if available). His .347 average and 18 RBIs show he’s locked in at the plate, and Oakland’s pitching has been vulnerable.
The combination of Senga’s effectiveness, New York’s lockdown bullpen, and their potent lineup led by Alonso should be enough to overcome the Athletics, even with the challenges of playing away from home. While Oakland’s young hitters have shown promise, the pitching gap between these teams is significant enough to favor the Mets decisively.
