As the NHL regular season approaches its climax, the Winnipeg Jets are set to face the Dallas Stars tonight at 8:00 PM EDT at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. This Central Division showdown carries significant playoff implications, with both teams vying for top positions and momentum heading into the postseason.
Current Team Standings and Recent Performance
The Winnipeg Jets lead the Central Division with a record of 42-15-3, accumulating 87 points. They have been formidable on the road, boasting a 19-10-0 away record. The Jets have displayed impressive form recently, winning nine of their last ten games.
The Dallas Stars are closely trailing in second place with a 37-19-2 record, totaling 76 points. Their home performance has been strong, with a 20-7-1 record at the American Airlines Center. The Stars have also been in solid form, securing seven wins in their last ten outings.
Offensive and Defensive Comparison
Offensively, the Jets average 3.53 goals per game, ranking third in the league, while the Stars average 3.31 goals per game, placing them sixth. Winnipeg’s shooting percentage stands at 12.4% (2nd), slightly higher than Dallas’s 11.1% (7th). In terms of shots on goal, Dallas has the edge with 29.7 per game (5th), compared to Winnipeg’s 28.5 (17th).
Defensively, Winnipeg excels by allowing only 2.35 goals per game, leading the league, while Dallas concedes 2.57 goals per game, ranking fifth. The Stars have a superior penalty kill percentage at 85.2% (1st), compared to the Jets’ 79.4% (14th). Discipline-wise, Dallas averages 6.8 penalty minutes per game (5th fewest), while Winnipeg averages 7.9 (16th).
Special Teams Matchup
Winnipeg’s power play operates at 30.9%, the highest in the league, posing a significant threat. Dallas’s power play stands at 20.2% (21st). Conversely, Dallas’s penalty kill is the best in the league at 85.2%, which will be tested against the Jets’ potent power play. Winnipeg’s penalty kill is less effective at 79.4% (14th), potentially giving Dallas opportunities with the man advantage.
Head-to-Head History
In their previous matchup on December 1, 2024, the Stars defeated the Jets 3-1. However, earlier in the season on November 9, 2024, Winnipeg secured a 4-1 victory over Dallas, marking their 14th win in their first 15 games and setting an NHL record for the best start to a season.
Injury Report
The Stars are without forward Tyler Seguin, who underwent hip surgery in December and is expected to be sidelined for 4-6 months, likely missing the remainder of the regular season and potentially the first round of the playoffs.
Projected Goaltenders
Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck has been outstanding this season, leading the league with 44 wins, a .924 save percentage, and a 2.03 goals-against average. Dallas’s Jake Oettinger has also been reliable between the pipes, providing the Stars with consistent goaltending.
Advanced Metrics and Puck Possession
Faceoff efficiency favors Dallas at 52.2% (6th), while Winnipeg stands at 48.8% (23rd). This advantage could translate to better puck possession and control for the Stars, potentially leading to more scoring opportunities.
Rest and Schedule
Both teams have had a day’s rest before this matchup, minimizing fatigue as a factor.
Betting Odds and Public Trends
The betting odds have the Stars as home favorites with a moneyline of -125, while the Jets are underdogs at +105. The puck line is set at 1.5, and the total points for the game are set at 5.5.
Game Implications and Outlook
This game is crucial for both teams as they battle for Central Division supremacy and favorable playoff positioning. Winnipeg’s high-powered offense and league-leading power play will test Dallas’s top-ranked penalty kill and disciplined defensive play. Conversely, the Stars will look to leverage their faceoff advantage and home ice to counter the Jets’ attack.
Prediction and Betting Recommendations
Considering both teams’ strengths and recent performances, a closely contested game is anticipated. Given Winnipeg’s potent offense and Dallas’s strong defense, the total points may slightly exceed expectations.
Predicted Final Score: Winnipeg Jets 3, Dallas Stars 2
Confidence Level: Medium
Recommended Bet Type: Moneyline on Winnipeg Jets (+105)
Reasoning: The Jets’ recent form, combined with their offensive capabilities and Hellebuyck’s stellar goaltending, provide value at plus money.
Player Props to Consider (continued):
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Mark Scheifele Over 0.5 Assists: Scheifele has been a key playmaker for Winnipeg throughout the season, tallying over 50 assists while centering the Jets’ top line. Given Dallas’s strong 5-on-5 defense, Winnipeg may need to rely on puck movement on the power play—where Scheifele excels—giving this prop strong value.
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Jason Robertson Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: Dallas’ leading offensive weapon, Robertson averages 3.9 shots per game and is often the focal point of their attack, especially in home games. He’s consistently generating high-danger chances and will be counted on to test Hellebuyck early and often.
Key Matchups That Could Influence the Game
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Hellebuyck vs. Oettinger in Net:
This goaltending duel is one of the most exciting in the NHL. Hellebuyck leads the league in both save percentage and wins, and his ability to steal games is well-documented. Oettinger, while not quite at Hellebuyck’s level statistically, has been strong down the stretch and is 14-3-1 at home since February. The team that gets more quality traffic and second-chance opportunities may be the one that breaks through. -
Dallas Penalty Kill vs. Winnipeg Power Play:
This is the premier special teams battle in the NHL right now. The Jets’ power play ranks first overall (30.9%), while Dallas counters with the league’s best penalty kill (85.2%). Winnipeg’s puck movement with Josh Morrissey at the point and the net-front presence of Nino Niederreiter have been crucial. If Dallas can neutralize that setup, they’ll significantly dampen Winnipeg’s edge. -
Faceoff Circle Battle:
With Dallas ranking 6th in the league in faceoff percentage (52.2%), winning the puck at key moments—especially during special teams or defensive zone draws—could tip the scales. Winnipeg ranks 23rd (48.8%) and could be vulnerable to extended Dallas possession if they can’t control faceoffs.
Advanced Metrics Snapshot
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Corsi For % (5v5): Dallas – 52.6% (6th); Winnipeg – 50.1% (14th)
Dallas generates more shot attempts per 60 minutes and limits opponents effectively, indicating stronger overall puck possession. -
Fenwick For % (5v5): Dallas – 51.9%; Winnipeg – 49.4%
This backs up the Stars’ slight edge in unblocked shot attempt differential, pointing to cleaner possession sequences. -
PDO (shooting % + save %): Winnipeg – 1.028 (2nd); Dallas – 1.012 (6th)
Both teams are playing above average in terms of shooting and goaltending efficiency. Winnipeg’s number suggests potential regression, but it’s also buoyed by elite goaltending from Hellebuyck, so it may be sustainable.
Situational Factors and Strength of Schedule
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Rest and Travel: Both teams are coming off a single day of rest and did not travel across time zones, which levels the playing field in terms of fatigue.
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Motivation and Playoff Implications: This is essentially a playoff-style game. Dallas leads the Central by a narrow margin, but Winnipeg has a game in hand and could pull into a tie for first with a regulation win. Motivation is maxed out for both clubs, but the Jets’ recent dominance (9-1-0 in last 10) suggests they’re peaking at the right time.
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Strength of Recent Opponents:
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Winnipeg: Recently defeated Vegas, Colorado, and Nashville — all playoff-caliber teams.
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Dallas: Has wins over St. Louis and Chicago, but fell to Colorado and Edmonton recently.
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This suggests the Jets have battled through a tougher schedule and still come out with wins, reinforcing their current elite form.
Line Movement and Public Betting Trends
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Opening Line: Dallas -135 / Winnipeg +109
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Current Line (as of April 10): Dallas -125 / Winnipeg +105
The movement toward Winnipeg shows bettors are recognizing the Jets’ hot streak and strong value as a road underdog. -
Betting Splits (per market analysis):
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58% of bets are on Dallas, but 64% of the money is on Winnipeg, indicating sharp action favoring the Jets.
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Total (Over/Under 5.5):
The total is holding steady. While both teams are capable of scoring, elite goaltending could keep this one under unless special teams explode. Lean: Under 5.5, but not a primary recommendation.
Final Thoughts
Tonight’s clash between the Jets and Stars could easily be a Western Conference Final preview. With playoff seeding at stake and elite players on both sides, this game should deliver tight, physical, and tactical hockey.
If Connor Hellebuyck continues his Vezina-caliber form, Winnipeg’s slightly more explosive offense and power play prowess could be the difference-maker—even on the road. While Dallas is an extremely well-rounded team with elite penalty killing and puck possession metrics, they’ll need to stay out of the box and match Winnipeg’s intensity at 5-on-5.
Final Prediction:
Winnipeg Jets 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Confidence Level: Medium
Best Bet: Moneyline – Winnipeg Jets +105
Secondary Bet: Jason Robertson Over 3.5 Shots on Goal
Player Prop: Kyle Connor Anytime Goal Scorer (+ value)
Keep an eye on the special teams battle. If Dallas can limit Winnipeg’s power play and control zone time through faceoffs and discipline, they may grind out a win. But if the Jets break through early, their momentum could carry them to a massive divisional statement.
