As the NCAA Tournament tips off, the First Four matchup between the Saint Francis Red Flash (16-17) and the Alabama State Hornets (19-15) promises an intriguing battle at the University of Dayton Arena. Both teams enter the contest on six-game winning streaks, each having secured their conference tournament championships to earn their spots in the Big Dance.
Team Overviews
Saint Francis Red Flash
Saint Francis has demonstrated resilience, particularly in their Northeast Conference (NEC) tournament run. Their offense, averaging 72.4 points per game on 46.6% shooting, is spearheaded by guard Riley Parker, who contributes 13.4 points and 3.4 assists per game. Forward Valentino Pinedo adds a significant presence in the paint, averaging 10 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Defensively, the Red Flash allow 73.2 points per game, with opponents shooting 43.9% from the field.
Alabama State Hornets
Alabama State’s journey to the tournament was marked by a strong finish, winning 10 of their last 11 games, including the SWAC tournament title. The Hornets average 73.4 points per game, albeit on a lower shooting percentage of 40.5%. Their backcourt duo, CJ Hines (14.4 PPG, 3 RPG) and Amarr Knox (14.3 PPG, 2 RPG), provide consistent scoring threats. Forward TJ Madlock is a versatile contributor, averaging 12.6 points and leading the team with 7.2 rebounds per game. Defensively, Alabama State limits opponents to 72.3 points per game and a 33.1% three-point shooting percentage.
Coaching Analysis
Saint Francis’s head coach, Rob Krimmel, has been at the helm since 2012, bringing stability and a deep understanding of the program. His tactical approach emphasizes offensive efficiency and ball movement, which has been pivotal in their recent success. Conversely, Alabama State’s Tony Madlock, appointed in 2021, has rapidly transformed the Hornets into a defensive powerhouse, focusing on pressure defense and transition play.
Home Court Advantage
While neither team enjoys a true home court advantage at the neutral site of UD Arena, Saint Francis’s proximity to Dayton, Ohio, could result in a larger contingent of their fans, potentially providing a slight morale boost.
Tempo
Both teams exhibit a balanced pace, adapting their tempo based on game situations. Saint Francis’s offensive efficiency allows them to capitalize on half-court sets, whereas Alabama State’s defensive schemes often lead to fast-break opportunities.
Three-Point Shooting
Saint Francis shoots 34.2% from beyond the arc, with players like Juan Cranford Jr. being pivotal in stretching defenses. Alabama State, meanwhile, connects at a 33% rate from three-point range, with their guards capable of heating up from distance.
Strength of Schedule
Both teams have faced relatively comparable competition within their respective conferences. However, Alabama State’s non-conference schedule included several challenging matchups, potentially providing them with a slight edge in experience against tougher opponents.
Advanced Metrics
According to KenPom ratings, Alabama State holds a defensive efficiency ranking of 1.017, slightly better than Saint Francis’s 1.062. Offensively, Alabama State’s efficiency stands at 1.013, surpassing Saint Francis’s 0.983. These metrics highlight Alabama State’s balanced approach on both ends of the floor.
Historical Matchups
There is no significant history between these two programs, making this matchup a fresh encounter without past precedents.
Conference Implications
As representatives of the NEC and SWAC, both teams aim to showcase their conferences’ competitiveness on the national stage. A victory would not only advance them in the tournament but also elevate the stature of their respective conferences.
Public Betting Trends
Current betting trends indicate a slight majority favoring Alabama State against the spread, reflecting public confidence in their recent form and defensive capabilities.
Line Movement
The betting line opened with Alabama State as a 3.5-point favorite, with minor fluctuations observed leading up to the game, settling around 4.5 points in favor of the Hornets.
Situational Factors
Both teams are riding momentum from their conference tournament victories. However, Alabama State’s recent track record of winning 10 of their last 11 games, including a road victory against the SWAC regular-season champion Southern, showcases their resilience in high-pressure situations.
clutch situations (especially during their SWAC tournament run) give them the edge in a neutral-site environment like the University of Dayton Arena.
Additionally, Saint Francis’s higher turnover percentage (17.4%) is concerning against an Alabama State team that excels in generating steals (9.5% steal rate). Those extra possessions could be the difference in a tightly contested game. While Saint Francis shoots more efficiently—especially inside the arc (52.6% to Alabama State’s 45.4%)—the Hornets’ ability to disrupt rhythm, crash the offensive glass (25.8% ORB), and take care of the ball (11.4% turnover rate) could outweigh that shooting advantage over 40 minutes.
Player Props and Alternative Lines
While player props are not always widely available in First Four matchups, there are a few key players worth spotlighting:
- CJ Hines Over 14.5 Points – Hines has scored 15+ in 7 of his last 9 games, and Saint Francis’s perimeter defense (allowing 34.7% from three) could give him room to operate.
- Amarr Knox Over 1.5 Steals – Knox leads Alabama State in steals, and with Saint Francis’s turnover tendencies, he should have opportunities to disrupt.
- Valentino Pinedo Over 6.5 Rebounds – If Saint Francis is to keep it close, Pinedo will need to win some of the rebounding battles, especially on the defensive end.
Alternative lines: If you’re confident in Alabama State’s edge, an alternate spread of -6.5 (+140 or better) offers value, particularly if they build a lead through turnovers and rebounding.
Key Mismatches to Watch
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Turnover Margin: Alabama State forces turnovers while rarely coughing it up themselves. This could lead to +6 or more in turnover differential, equating to extra possessions and fast-break chances.
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Offensive Rebounding: Alabama State’s edge on the offensive glass could lead to 10–12 second-chance points, crucial in a game expected to be close late.
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Free Throw Shooting in Late Game: While Saint Francis shoots slightly better from the stripe overall (72.5% vs. 69.8%), Alabama State gets to the line more frequently. The real differentiator will be who can convert in the final minutes if the game comes down to fouls and clock management.
Situational Narrative
This is Alabama State’s first NCAA tournament appearance since 2011, and they’ll be motivated to make the most of it. Under Coach Tony Madlock’s leadership, the Hornets have developed a defensive identity that travels well and shows up in crunch time. Madlock’s coaching experience, including assistant roles at SEC programs, has helped shape a team that stays composed in close games—evidenced by their 60-56 title game win over Jackson State.
Saint Francis, on the other hand, is playing with house money after an upset-filled NEC tournament run. Coach Rob Krimmel has guided this team through adversity and narrow wins—none bigger than their 67-64 victory over top-seeded Central Connecticut. But that reliance on tight finishes may not hold against a more athletic, defensively intense team like Alabama State.
Final Thoughts
Expect this to be a gritty, back-and-forth battle early on, with Alabama State pulling away late thanks to their edge in turnovers, rebounding, and backcourt scoring. The Hornets’ balance and poise in tournament settings—combined with superior depth—make them the stronger play against the spread and moneyline.
Final Score Prediction:
Alabama State 74, Saint Francis 69
Confidence Level: Medium
Best Bet:
Alabama State -3.5 (spread) – Their advantages in turnover margin, rebounding, and depth should prove decisive.
Lean:
Under 139.5 total points – While both teams average around 72–73 points per game, tournament pressure, defensive intensity, and the neutral site may suppress scoring, especially in the early minutes.
Stay tuned—whoever emerges from this matchup will face a major test against Auburn in the next round. But first, expect a grind-it-out First Four clash where Alabama State’s defense, discipline, and three-headed scoring attack gives them the ticket to dance on.
