The Big West Tournament matchup between the Cal Poly Mustangs and the UC Davis Aggies on March 12, 2025, at Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada, presents a compelling contrast in team dynamics and recent performances. Cal Poly (14-18, 8-12 Big West) has gained momentum, winning four of their last five games, including an impressive 83-69 victory over Long Beach State. In that game, Jarred Hyder scored 25 points, and Owen Koonce added 20. The Mustangs boast the nation’s 24th-ranked scoring offense at 81.7 points per game but struggle defensively, allowing 82.7 points per game (360th nationally). Offensively, they excel in effective field goal percentage (54.7%, 44th) and three-pointers made (11.3 per game, 3rd), but turnovers (15.7 per game, 363rd) remain a concern. Key players include Koonce (17.2 PPG), Hyder (14.3 PPG, 3.0 APG), and Isaac Jessup (11.5 PPG, 3.1 three-pointers per game).
UC Davis (15-16, 9-11 Big West), on the other hand, has struggled recently with six consecutive losses to close the regular season. They average just 67.7 points per game (325th nationally) but are stronger defensively, allowing 69.8 points per game (108th). Their offensive efficiency is low, with a field goal percentage of 41% (344th) and a turnover rate of 19.6% (320th), though they rank higher in defensive metrics like field goal percentage allowed (42.5%, 99th). Ty Johnson leads the Aggies with an impressive 21.2 points per game and contributes defensively with 2.3 steals per game. Supporting players include Pablo Tamba (10.8 PPG) and Leo DeBruhl (8.7 PPG, 2.8 APG).
Coaching Analysis
Cal Poly’s head coach, John Smith, is in his fifth season with the Mustangs. Known for his offensive-minded approach, Smith emphasizes a fast-paced game that leverages perimeter shooting. However, the team’s defensive struggles suggest room for improvement in balancing their offensive prowess with defensive solidity.
UC Davis is led by Jim Les, who has been at the helm since 2011. Les has guided the Aggies to multiple winning seasons, including a 20-win season last year. His teams are typically disciplined defensively, reflecting his emphasis on defensive fundamentals. However, the recent offensive struggles indicate a need for tactical adjustments to revitalize their scoring efficiency.
Home Court Advantage
The neutral venue at Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson, NV, negates traditional home-court advantages. Both teams will need to adapt to the unfamiliar setting, making in-game adjustments and mental resilience crucial factors.
Tempo
Cal Poly prefers an up-tempo style, averaging 81.7 points per game, which ranks them 24th nationally. This fast pace leads to high-scoring affairs but also contributes to their defensive vulnerabilities, as they allow 82.7 points per game. UC Davis, conversely, plays at a more controlled pace, averaging 67.7 points per game, focusing on defensive solidity to keep games within reach.
Three-Point Shooting
The Mustangs are prolific from beyond the arc, averaging 11.3 three-pointers made per game (3rd nationally) with a 54.7% effective field goal percentage (44th). Isaac Jessup is a key contributor, averaging 3.1 three-pointers per game. UC Davis is less reliant on the three-point shot, with players like Connor Sevilla averaging 2.0 three-pointers made per game. Their lower offensive output suggests a need to improve perimeter shooting to enhance scoring.
Strength of Schedule
Both teams have faced similar Big West competition, with Cal Poly performing better against higher-ranked opponents. Their recent victory over Long Beach State, a top-tier conference team, highlights their capability to compete at a high level. UC Davis has struggled against stronger teams, as evidenced by their six-game losing streak to close the regular season.
Advanced Metrics
According to KenPom ratings, Cal Poly’s offensive efficiency is ranked 50th, while their defensive efficiency is 350th, reflecting their high-scoring games and defensive struggles. UC Davis holds a defensive efficiency ranking of 100th but falls to 320th in offensive efficiency, underscoring their challenges in generating points.
Historical Matchups
In their regular-season meetings, Cal Poly and UC Davis split the series 1-1. Cal Poly secured a decisive victory in their most recent encounter, showcasing their offensive firepower. UC Davis’s win earlier in the season was characterized by a low-scoring, defensively dominated game, aligning with their strategic preferences.
Conference Implications
This tournament game is pivotal for both teams, offering a pathway to secure an automatic NCAA Tournament bid. Cal Poly’s recent surge positions them as a dark horse, while UC Davis aims to overcome their late-season slump to make a deep tournament run.
Public Betting Trends and Line Movement
The betting line opened with Cal Poly as a slight favorite, with a moneyline of -119, compared to UC Davis’s -101. The spread is set at 1 point, and the total for the game is 151. Public betting trends indicate a slight lean towards Cal Poly, likely influenced by their recent strong performances. However, the line has remained relatively stable, suggesting balanced action from bettors.
Situational Factors
The travel distance is minimal for both programs, with neither school enjoying a clear geographic advantage in Henderson, NV. However, momentum heavily favors Cal Poly. They are playing with energy and confidence, while UC Davis is facing pressure to end a six-game slide. This stark difference in psychological readiness could influence how each team responds to early adversity in the tournament environment.
The Mustangs have no reported injuries and come into this game rested, riding high off a convincing win over Long Beach State. UC Davis, despite a fully healthy roster, is dealing with internal questions regarding offensive identity and rhythm, which can be harder to solve on short notice in a win-or-go-home setting.
Model Projections: Synthesizing the Analytics
To provide a well-rounded forecast, we’ve aggregated projections from five respected analytics sources:
- KenPom: Cal Poly 80 – UC Davis 73
- Sagarin Ratings: Cal Poly by 3.2
- Bart Torvik: Cal Poly 82 – UC Davis 75
- Haslametrics: Cal Poly by 4.0, based on momentum and offensive efficiency
- Torvik Game Score Momentum Tracker: Heavily favors Cal Poly’s recent trend upward; predicts a 7-point Mustang win
All five models lean toward Cal Poly both in raw scoring prediction and overall efficiency edge.
Key Mismatches and Impact Players
Cal Poly’s Three-Point Barrage vs. UC Davis’s Perimeter Defense:
UC Davis ranks a respectable 99th in opponent field goal percentage but struggles when forced to extend the defense to the three-point line. Cal Poly’s spacing, driven by Isaac Jessup’s sharpshooting (3.1 threes per game), is likely to stretch the Aggies’ defensive structure. If UC Davis cannot limit early transition threes, they risk falling behind quickly.
Turnovers on Both Sides:
While Cal Poly is extremely turnover-prone (15.7 per game, 363rd nationally), UC Davis struggles to capitalize offensively even when generating stops or steals. Ty Johnson’s 2.3 steals per game may be key here, but unless those turnovers lead to easy buckets, the Aggies’ inefficient half-court offense could limit their upside.
Star Guard Matchup – Ty Johnson vs. Jarred Hyder:
Johnson is undoubtedly UC Davis’s engine, but Hyder has been sensational down the stretch for Cal Poly. Both guards will be asked to shoulder heavy loads, but Hyder benefits from better offensive spacing, while Johnson may face more defensive pressure without as much offensive support.
Predicted Final Score
Cal Poly 84 – UC Davis 75
- Confidence Level: High
- Recommended Bet Type: Spread (Cal Poly -1) and Over 151
- Best Value Play: Combine Cal Poly -1 and Over 151 in a same-game parlay
Reasoning:
Cal Poly is surging offensively at the right time. They’ve scored 83+ in three of their last five games and dropped 112 in an upset over UC Riverside. Their elite three-point shooting and tempo should overwhelm a struggling UC Davis squad that lacks offensive punch. Even with a relatively strong defense, the Aggies don’t have the firepower to keep up if Cal Poly gets hot from beyond the arc — and the Mustangs are trending exactly in that direction.
