The Washington State Cougars and the San Francisco Dons are set to face off in what promises to be a thrilling West Coast Conference Tournament battle on Sunday, March 9, 2025. The game is scheduled for an 11:00 PM ET tip-off at Orleans Arena. With San Francisco favored by five points and the total set at 148, the matchup is expected to be a competitive, high-scoring affair. But will it live up to the hype? Let’s break it all down.

Recent Performance & Momentum

Washington State Cougars: Building Confidence Off a Dominant Win

Washington State enters this game with momentum after a convincing 94-77 victory over Loyola Marymount. The Cougars played an efficient offensive game, dishing out 26 assists while shooting 52% from the field. Standout performances from Nate Calmese and Ethan Price, who each scored 22 points, helped propel the team to the win.

The Cougars have been an offensive force this season, averaging 78.5 points per game while shooting 49.1% from the field. Their ability to push the tempo and find high-percentage looks will be key against San Francisco’s defense. However, their biggest concern remains on the defensive end, where they allow 78.2 points per game—raising questions about their ability to contain an efficient San Francisco offense.

San Francisco Dons: Looking to Rebound After a Tough Loss

San Francisco is coming off a tough 95-75 loss to Gonzaga in their regular-season finale. Despite the loss, Marcus Williams shined with a 28-point, five-assist performance, showcasing his ability to take over games when needed.

The Dons are known for their balanced approach, averaging 75.6 points per game while maintaining a solid defensive presence, allowing just 68.2 points per contest. Their defense will be tested against Washington State’s fast-paced offense, but their ability to control tempo and force tough shots could play to their advantage.

Key Player Matchups

Washington State: Offense is the Name of the Game

Nate Calmese (Guard) – The Cougars’ go-to scorer, averaging over 20 points in recent outings. His ability to drive and shoot from deep will be crucial.
Ethan Price (Forward) – A versatile offensive threat, capable of stretching the floor and finishing inside.
Rihards Vavers (Guard) – A strong three-point shooter who can be an X-factor if he gets hot from beyond the arc.

San Francisco: Defensive Edge with Scoring Power

Malik Thomas (Guard) – Leads the Dons with 19.1 points per game. A consistent scorer who can attack the rim and hit mid-range jumpers.
Marcus Williams (Guard) – Coming off a big game against Gonzaga, his playmaking ability will be key.
Jonathan Mogbo (Forward) – The defensive anchor, responsible for guarding Washington State’s bigs and limiting second-chance opportunities.

Team Statistics & Style of Play

Washington State: Fast-Paced, Offensive-Minded

Points per Game: 78.5
Field Goal Percentage: 49.1%
Three-Point Percentage: 36.1%
Points Allowed per Game: 78.2
Pace of Play: Fast, up-tempo, designed to maximize possessions

San Francisco: Defense First, But Can Score When Needed

Points per Game: 75.6
Field Goal Percentage: 45.8%
Three-Point Percentage: 33.8%
Points Allowed per Game: 68.2
Pace of Play: More controlled, focusing on efficient scoring and strong defensive sets

Prediction Models & Analysis

To determine the best approach to this game, we analyzed five successful NCAA Basketball prediction models, factoring in offensive efficiency, defensive performance, pace of play, and head-to-head trends. The models suggest that the game will likely exceed the projected total of 148 points due to both teams’ ability to score efficiently and push the pace.

Here’s how five different models predict the final score:

KenPom Model: San Francisco 80, Washington State 76 (156 total points)
ELO Ratings Model: San Francisco 82, Washington State 75 (157 total points)
TeamRankings Model: San Francisco 79, Washington State 74 (153 total points)
Haslametrics Model: San Francisco 81, Washington State 78 (159 total points)
ShotQuality Model: San Francisco 83, Washington State 77 (160 total points)

Why the Over 148 Total Points is the Right Call

Several factors support the projection that this game will go over the total of 148 points:

Washington State’s Fast Pace & Offensive Efficiency – The Cougars play an up-tempo style and shoot 49.1% from the field. Their last game against Loyola Marymount showcased how efficient they can be offensively.
San Francisco’s Offensive Capabilities – While they are a defensive-minded team, they have shown they can score, as seen in their 95-point game against Gonzaga.
Defensive Vulnerabilities – Washington State allows 78.2 points per game, meaning San Francisco should have plenty of scoring opportunities.
Head-to-Head Trends – The teams split their regular-season matchups, each game featuring a high-scoring affair. Their styles complement an offensive-heavy matchup.
Predicted Score Averages from Models – The five prediction models suggest an average total of 157 points, which is well above the set line of 148.

Final Score Prediction

San Francisco Dons 82, Washington State Cougars 79

This projection aligns with the trends and statistical breakdown. Expect a closely contested battle, with Washington State’s offensive firepower keeping the game competitive. San Francisco’s defensive edge might give them a slight advantage in closing moments, but the real story here is the high-scoring potential of both squads.

Conclusion

This matchup presents a fascinating clash of styles—Washington State’s fast-paced, offensive approach versus San Francisco’s defensive strength. However, given the Cougars’ scoring ability and the Dons’ recent defensive struggles, this game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. With multiple prediction models pointing toward a total well above 148 points, all signs indicate that this will be an exciting, offense-driven contest. Expect fireworks on the scoreboard as both teams battle for a crucial win in the West Coast Conference Tournament.

PICK: over 148 total points