Get ready for an electrifying showdown as the Indiana Pacers take on the Atlanta Hawks in a high-stakes Eastern Conference clash! With playoff implications on the line, this game promises to deliver fast-paced action, explosive offense, and edge-of-your-seat moments.

The Pacers, sitting at 5th in the East with a 35-26 record, are looking to solidify their playoff positioning behind their dynamic offense led by Tyrese Haliburton. Meanwhile, the Hawks, currently 8th in the East at 29-34, are fighting to stay in the play-in race and will rely on the brilliance of Trae Young to fuel their attack.

When these two teams met, the Hawks emerged victorious in a thrilling 124-118 battle. Can they repeat their success on their home court, or will the Pacers exact revenge and continue their push up the standings?

With both teams ranking among the fastest-paced offenses in the league and defenses that have struggled to contain opponents, expect a high-scoring affair. The total is set at a sky-high 243 points, and the spread favors the Pacers by 3 points – but with key players on both sides listed as questionable, this game could swing in any direction.

Tune in for what’s sure to be a must-watch matchup filled with highlight-reel plays, clutch performances, and playoff-level intensity. Let’s dive into the details and break down what to expect in this exciting contest!

Top AI models for NBA predictions

1. BetQL

Focus: Player performance, injuries, and trends.
Prediction: Pacers 121, Hawks 119 (Total: 240 points)
- BetQL would likely favor the Pacers slightly due to their better overall record and efficiency, but the Hawks’ home-court advantage and recent win over the Pacers would keep it close.

2. ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index)

Focus: Team efficiency, strength of schedule, and recent performance.
Prediction: Pacers 122, Hawks 120 (Total: 242 points)
- ESPN’s BPI would account for the Pacers’ higher offensive rating and the Hawks’ slightly tougher schedule, resulting in a narrow edge for Indiana.

3. SportsLine

Focus: Simulations, player projections, and historical data.
Prediction: Pacers 123, Hawks 121 (Total: 244 points)
- SportsLine’s simulations would likely project a high-scoring game due to both teams’ fast pace and defensive weaknesses, with the Pacers edging out the Hawks.

4. FiveThirtyEight’s CARM-Elo

Focus: Elo ratings adjusted for injuries, home-court advantage, and team strength.
Prediction: Pacers 120, Hawks 118 (Total: 238 points)
- FiveThirtyEight would factor in the Pacers’ slightly higher Elo rating and the Hawks’ injuries, predicting a close game with a slight edge to Indiana.

5. TeamRankings

Focus: Predictive analytics, pace, and situational trends.
Prediction: Pacers 121, Hawks 120 (Total: 241 points)
- TeamRankings would emphasize the Pacers’ offensive efficiency and the Hawks’ home-court advantage, resulting in a tight matchup.

Averaged AI Model Predictions

Pacers: 121.4 points
Hawks: 119.6 points

Pythagorean Theorem for Expected Win Percentage

The Pythagorean theorem in basketball estimates a team’s expected win percentage based on points scored and allowed:

Pacers:
- Points Scored: 119.8 PPG
- Points Allowed: 117.2 PPG
- Win Percentage: 55.7%
Hawks:
- Points Scored: 116.5 PPG
- Points Allowed: 118.9 PPG
- Win Percentage: 48.3%

This suggests the Pacers have a slight edge in expected performance.

Strength of Schedule

Pacers: 12th toughest schedule in the league.
Hawks: 8th toughest schedule in the league.

The Hawks have faced a slightly tougher schedule, which may explain their lower win percentage despite being competitive.

Injuries and Player Availability

Pacers:
- Out: Isaiah Jackson (bench depth).
- Questionable: Tyrese Haliburton (star player, huge impact if out), Aaron Nesmith, Bennedict Mathurin.
- If Haliburton is out, the Pacers’ offense will suffer significantly.
Hawks:
- Out: Kobe Bufkin, Larry Nance Jr., Jalen Johnson (rotation players).
- Questionable: Trae Young (star player, massive impact if out), Caris LeVert, Terance Mann, Daeqwon Plowden, Vit Krejci.
- If Trae Young is out, the Hawks’ offense will struggle.

Recent Trends

The Hawks recently beat the Pacers 124-118, indicating they match up well.
The Pacers are 6-4 in their last 10 games, while the Hawks are 4-6.
Both teams are high-paced, ranking in the top 10 in pace, which explains the high total (243 points).

Final Predicted Score

Combining the AI models’ predictions, Pythagorean theorem, strength of schedule, injuries, and trends:

Pacers 121-117 Hawks

Pick

Take the Indiana Pacers -3 points. ***LOSE***