In the upcoming NCAA Men’s Basketball matchup between the Ohio State Buckeyes (15-13, 7-10 Big Ten) and USC Trojans (14-13, 6-10 Big Ten), both teams enter Wednesday night’s contest at the Galen Center in Los Angeles mired in three-game losing streaks.

Date: Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Time: 10:30 PM ET

Arena: Galen Center Los Angeles, CA

With the over/under set at 151.5 points, this analysis evaluates the likelihood of the game exceeding or falling short of this total, alongside a final score prediction and betting strategy.

Key Team Trends and Recent Performance

Ohio State’s Offensive Struggles

The Buckeyes have faltered offensively in their recent outings, posting their two worst shooting performances of the season. In a 70-49 loss to Northwestern on February 20, Ohio State shot a season-low 32.7% from the field, followed by a 31.7% showing in a 69-61 loss at UCLA. Star guard Bruce Thornton (17.3 PPG) remains the focal point, but his scoring has dipped recently, with just one 20-point game in his last five appearances. The potential return of center Aaron Bradshaw (6.6 PPG), who missed the last two games due to illness, could bolster interior play, but his impact may be limited given his modest averages.

USC’s Defensive Vulnerabilities

USC’s defense ranks 259th nationally, allowing 74.3 points per game, while their offense averages 76.7 PPG. Despite Desmond Claude’s standout performances (16.2 PPG, 4.2 APG), the Trojans have lost five of their last six games, including a 95-85 defeat at Rutgers where Claude dropped 30 points. Head coach Eric Musselman has emphasized resilience, but USC’s perimeter defense (31.7% opponent three-point shooting) and rebounding deficiencies (28.6 RPG, 334th nationally) persist.

Scoring Trends and Over/Under Analysis

Historical and Seasonal Context

Combined Averages: Ohio State (78.2 PPG) and USC (76.7 PPG) collectively average 154.9 points, which exceeds the 151.5 over/under line. However, their opponents’ combined scoring (146.2 PPG) suggests tighter defensive battles.
USC’s Home Trends: The Trojans’ home games have seen the total go OVER in 11 of their last 17 contests, including 4 of their past 5. This trend contrasts with Ohio State’s road struggles (5-15 SU in last 20 away games), which often result in lower-scoring affairs.
Recent Offensive Slumps: Both teams are mired in offensive ruts. Ohio State’s shooting woes and USC’s inconsistent scoring (1-4 SU in the last 5 games) create uncertainty about their ability to sustain high efficiency.

Pace and Defensive Metrics

Pace of Play: USC’s games average 72.8 possessions per contest, slightly above the national median, while Ohio State operates at a moderate tempo. A faster-paced game could inflate scoring, but both teams’ recent slumps suggest a grind.
Defensive Efficiency: Ohio State allows 92.2 points per 100 possessions (154th nationally), while USC surrenders 96.9 (281st). These metrics indicate exploitable defenses, but the Buckeyes’ recent shooting struggles (29.3% three-point defense) may counteract this.

Prediction Models and External Factors

Injury and Intangibles

Aaron Bradshaw’s Status: The potential return of Ohio State’s center could improve rebounding and interior defense, indirectly suppressing USC’s second-chance opportunities.
Home-Court Advantage: USC’s Galen Center has been a high-scoring environment, with 11 of 17 home games exceeding the total. This trend aligns with the Trojans’ defensive lapses but contradicts their recent offensive inconsistency.

Predicted Scores from Top NCAA Basketball Models

Here are the predicted scores from five successful NCAA basketball prediction models:

KenPom: Ohio State 73, USC 75
TeamRankings: Ohio State 72, USC 74
ESPN BPI: Ohio State 71, USC 76
FiveThirtyEight: Ohio State 74, USC 72
Dimers: Ohio State 70, USC 75

These predictions generally suggest a close game with neither team scoring excessively, supporting the under 151.5 pick.

Score Projection

Given the clash of USC’s home scoring trends and Ohio State’s road offensive struggles, this game hinges on whether either team can break out of its slump. USC’s defensive vulnerabilities (74.3 PPG allowed) could allow Thornton to exploit mismatches, while Claude’s playmaking may keep the Trojans competitive. However, both teams’ recent performances suggest a lower-scoring contest than their seasonal averages.

Predicted Final Score: USC 72, Ohio State 68 (Total: 140 points)

Betting Recommendations

Under 151.5 Points: Lean on the UNDER due to Ohio State’s shooting woes, USC’s inconsistent offense, and the potential for a slower-paced game.
Alternate Lines: Consider USC -1.5 given their home-court edge and Ohio State’s road struggles, but prioritize the under as the stronger play.

Conclusion

While USC’s home games have trended toward high scores, the compounding offensive struggles of both teams—particularly Ohio State’s road inefficiency—create a favorable environment for the UNDER 151.5. Bettors should monitor Bradshaw’s availability, as his presence could further suppress scoring by bolstering Ohio State’s interior defense.

PICK: under 151.5 total points