February 18, 2024, promises to deliver one of the most exciting matchups of the NCAA College Basketball season as the Purdue Boilermakers travel to East Lansing to take on the Michigan St. Spartans in a high-stakes Big Ten showdown. With both teams boasting impressive records and fighting for conference supremacy, this game is more than just a battle for bragging rights—it’s a statement game that could shape the postseason landscape.
Purdue, led by their high-powered offense and dominant play in the paint, comes in with a 19-7 overall record (11-4 in the Big Ten), looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Michigan St., riding the momentum of a thrilling victory over Illinois, sits at 20-5 (11-3 in the Big Ten) and aims to defend their home court in what promises to be a raucous environment at the Breslin Center.
With Michigan St. favored by -3.5 points and the total set at 148.5, this game has all the makings of a classic: elite talent, strategic coaching, and the intensity of a rivalry that could go down to the wire. Will Purdue’s offensive firepower be enough to overcome Michigan St.’s stout defense and home-court advantage? Or will the Spartans continue their winning ways and solidify their place atop the Big Ten standings?
Analysis of Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan St. Spartans
Injury Report:
- Purdue: Daniel Jacobsen is out. This impacts Purdue’s depth.
- Michigan St.: Colin Walton and Brennan Walton are out. This is a deep concern for Michigan State as well.
Team Standings & Performance:
- Purdue: 19-7 (Overall), 11-4 (BIG10). Recent loss to Wisconsin.
- Michigan St.: 20-5 (Overall), 11-3 (BIG10). Recent win against Illinois.
Betting Line:
- Michigan St. -3.5 (Home Favorite)
- Over/Under: 148.5
Top NCAA Basketball Betting Models (and AI)
| Model | Predicted Score (Purdue) | Predicted Score (Michigan St.) |
| BetQL | 72 | 75 |
| ESPN BPI | 70 | 74 |
| SportsLine | 73 | 76 |
| AI Model #1 | 71 | 77 |
| AI Model #2 | 69 | 73 |
| Average | 71 | 75 |
My Prediction (Incorporating Pythagorean Expectation & Strength of Schedule):
- Pythagorean Expectation: This formula (Points Scored ^X / (Points Scored ^X + Points Allowed ^X)) estimates a team’s expected winning percentage based on their scoring. The exponent “X” is typically around 11.5 for college basketball.
- Strength of Schedule (SOS): Adjusting for the quality of opponents played is crucial. Beating weak teams doesn’t mean as much as beating strong teams.
- Purdue: Let’s assume Purdue’s Pythagorean Expectation, adjusted for SOS, gives them an expected point output of 72.
- Michigan St.: Similarly, Michigan St., with their SOS factored in, is expected to score 74.
Initial Prediction: Purdue 72 – Michigan St. 74
Adjustments & Considerations:
- Home Court Advantage: Michigan St. is at home, providing a significant boost (typically 2-4 points).
- Recent Performance: Michigan St.’s win against Illinois is a strong indicator. Purdue’s loss to Wisconsin, while on the road, suggests a potential vulnerability.
- Trends: Look at head-to-head records, performance against the spread (ATS), and over/under trends for both teams.
Final Score Prediction & Pick
Averaging Model Predictions with My Prediction:
- Model Average: Purdue 71 – Michigan St. 75
- My Prediction: Purdue 72 – Michigan St. 74
- Combined Average: Purdue 71.5 – Michigan St. 74.5
Adjusted Prediction: Factoring in home court advantage and recent performance, I’ll adjust slightly.
- Final Score Prediction: Purdue 70 – Michigan St. 75
Pick:
- Take the Michigan St. Spartans -3.5 points
