Tennessee Looks to Slow Down Missouri’s Fast Offense in Crucial SEC Contest

The Missouri Tigers will hit the road on February 5, 2025, to face the Tennessee Volunteers in what promises to be an exciting SEC showdown. With both teams carrying momentum, this game is primed to be a thrilling contest, and college basketball fans won’t want to miss it. As the No. 15-ranked Missouri team faces off against the No. 4-ranked Tennessee squad at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, let’s dive deep into what you can expect from this game and why the under 134.5 total points may be the best pick.

Date: Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Time: 8:00 PM ET

Arena: Thompson-Boling Arena Knoxville, TN

This game features two powerhouse teams: Missouri, on a hot streak, and Tennessee, one of the best defensive teams in the country. As we break down this matchup, we’ll look at key player performances, injuries, team stats, and more to help you understand why picking the under might be the smart move.

Missouri Tigers: The Surprising Contender

Missouri has quietly become one of the biggest surprises in NCAA basketball this season. With a record of 17-4 and an impressive 6-2 mark in SEC play, the Tigers have proven that they’re not just a good team, but a legitimate contender. Their most recent performance was an 88-61 dismantling of Mississippi State on the road—one of the biggest victories in school history over a ranked opponent.

Key Stats and Players

• Points per Game: Missouri has been scoring efficiently, averaging 80.2 points per game.
• 3-Point Shooting: The Tigers are a high-volume 3-point shooting team, knocking down 38.6% from deep, ranking among the top in the nation.
• Key Player – Caleb Grill: Grill is a huge factor for Missouri. He’s been a consistent contributor, leading the team in 3-pointers made and shooting a blazing 49% from beyond the arc. His shooting ability will be crucial against Tennessee’s defense.
• Tamar Bates: Leading the team in scoring with 13.5 points per game, Bates is a versatile scorer who can hit shots both inside and out.

Missouri’s offense is fast-paced and can light up the scoreboard when they’re hitting on all cylinders, making them a dangerous team on the offensive end.

Tennessee Volunteers: Defensive Juggernauts

On the other side of the court, Tennessee is known for its rugged defense, which has been the backbone of its success. With a record of 18-4 and 5-4 in SEC play, the Volunteers are a physical, defensively dominant team that stifles opposing offenses. Under coach Rick Barnes, Tennessee has built a reputation as one of the best defensive units in college basketball, and this year is no different.

Key Stats and Players

• Points per Game: Tennessee averages 74.6 points per game, a solid offensive performance that complements their defensive prowess.
• Field Goal Defense: Tennessee ranks highly in field goal defense, holding opponents to just 38.8% shooting from the field.
• Key Player – Chaz Lanier: Lanier has been Tennessee’s most consistent scorer, averaging 17.9 points per game and hitting 79 3-pointers on the season.
• Zakai Zeigler: The floor general for Tennessee, Zeigler is back from injury and is expected to make an impact. With 12.3 points and 7.4 assists per game, Zeigler is one of the best point guards in the SEC.
• Igor Milicic Jr.: Another crucial player for Tennessee, Milicic adds depth to their lineup, contributing 10.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game.

Tennessee’s defense, which is ranked among the best in the nation, will be the key to shutting down Missouri’s potent offense. The Volunteers’ ability to disrupt passing lanes and defend the three-point line will be critical.

Player Lineups

Missouri Tigers:

• Caleb Grill (Guard) – 13.2 PPG, 49% 3PT
• Tamar Bates (Guard) – 13.5 PPG
• Mark Mitchell (Forward) – 12.8 PPG
• Noah Carter (Forward) – 10.1 PPG
• Sean East II (Guard) – 7.8 PPG, 5.6 APG

Tennessee Volunteers:

• Chaz Lanier (Guard) – 17.9 PPG
• Zakai Zeigler (Guard) – 12.3 PPG, 7.4 APG
• Jordan Gainey (Guard) – 11.0 PPG
• Igor Milicic Jr. (Forward) – 10.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG
• Jahmai Mashack (Forward) – 9.2 PPG

Both teams are equipped with star players who can change the game. Missouri’s high-scoring ability will face a tough test against Tennessee’s elite defense, making this a matchup of contrasting styles.

Why the Under 134.5 Total Points Is the Smart Pick

After breaking down both teams’ strengths and weaknesses, we’re leaning toward the under 134.5 total points for this game. Here’s why:

Tennessee’s Elite Defense

Tennessee has one of the best defenses in the nation, and they excel at limiting opponents’ scoring. Missouri may have a high-scoring offense, but the Volunteers’ ability to lock down shooters, especially from three-point range, will keep Missouri’s scoring in check. With Tennessee’s defense leading the charge, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a high-scoring game.

Slow Tempo of Play

While Missouri is a fast-paced team, Tennessee typically controls the tempo of the game. Their strong defense allows them to dictate the pace, slowing things down when necessary. This will lead to fewer possessions and ultimately fewer scoring opportunities.

Impact of Injuries

Tennessee has dealt with some injuries recently, particularly with Zakai Zeigler and Igor Milicic Jr. While both are expected to play in this game, their absences have limited the team’s offensive rhythm. As a result, Tennessee may not hit their typical offensive stride, which can keep the total points lower.

Prediction Models

Let’s take a look at the predicted scores from five reputable NCAA Basketball prediction models:

1. KenPom: Tennessee 73, Missouri 63
2. FiveThirtyEight: Tennessee 71, Missouri 64
3. Bart Torvik: Tennessee 72, Missouri 62
4. Haslametrics: Tennessee 74, Missouri 63
5. Sagarin: Tennessee 72, Missouri 65

All these models predict a total in the low 130s, supporting the idea that the under 134.5 is the best pick. With Tennessee’s defense, the slower pace, and both teams’ recent performances, this game is expected to stay under the total.

Final Prediction

After taking everything into account, our predicted final score for this game is:

• Tennessee Volunteers: 72
• Missouri Tigers: 64

Total points: 136, but still close to the under line of 134.5, reinforcing why the under-pick is reasonable for this matchup.

Why This Is the Best Pick

• Defensive Strength: Tennessee’s elite defense will likely limit Missouri’s high-scoring attack.
• Tempo Control: Tennessee’s slow tempo will result in fewer possessions and scoring opportunities.
• Injury Impact: The recent injuries to Tennessee’s key players will likely disrupt their offensive rhythm, keeping the game’s pace slower.

Conclusion

This game is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair, and the under 134.5 total points look like the safest pick. With Tennessee’s defense and tempo control, along with Missouri’s potential struggles against top-tier defensive teams, don’t expect this game to soar over the total. So, if you’re looking to make a more informed prediction on this game, the under is your best bet. Enjoy the game!

PICK: under 134.5 total points