The Memphis Tigers are charging through the season with a chip on their shoulder and the wind at their backs. With an impressive 17-4 record and a strong hold on the top of the American Athletic Conference, they face off against the Rice Owls tonight in what is expected to be an exciting college basketball clash. But can the struggling Owls keep up with the Tigers in Houston?
Date: Sunday, February 2, 2025
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Arena: Tudor Fieldhouse Houston, TX
This match-up is more than just another game on the calendar. Memphis, despite some inconsistencies this season, is still among the top teams in the AAC, and their defensive prowess will be a major factor. Rice, on the other hand, has fought through adversity all year, but their offensive struggles could make it a tough road ahead. If you’re looking for insight into this matchup, let’s break it all down.
Memphis Tigers: A Team That Wins by Defense
Record: 17-4, 7-1 AAC
Key Players:
- PJ Haggerty (21.4 PPG) – A top scorer in the country, Haggerty has been the focal point of Memphis’ offensive attack all season. His consistency and ability to score in multiple ways make him an offensive powerhouse.
- Colby Rogers (14 PPG) – After some rough patches earlier this season, Rogers seems to be finding his rhythm, most recently contributing a major second-half performance against Tulane.
- Dain Dainja – Known for providing solid support when needed, Dainja has been a key contributor both offensively and defensively.
Current Form:
Memphis has not been playing flawless basketball, but they keep finding ways to win. Despite some offensive struggles, they have managed to defend at an elite level, keeping teams like Tulane in check with tight defensive schemes. Memphis isn’t just winning—they’re grinding out victories, which speaks to their resilience and team chemistry. With a strong defense and solid rebounding, they can control the tempo of the game, even when their shots aren’t falling.
Their defense has been particularly impressive. In their most recent victory over Tulane, they limited their opponent to just 36.2% shooting from the field and 4-of-24 shooting from the 3-point line. These numbers speak volumes about their ability to stifle opposing offenses, and it’s a big reason why they’ve been so successful this season.
Rice Owls: Struggling to Find Consistency
Record: 11-10, 2-6 AAC
Key Players:
- Trae Broadnax (12.8 PPG) – Rice’s top scorer, Broadnax has been the only consistent offensive threat for the Owls. However, he’ll face a tough challenge against Memphis’ stingy defense.
Current Form:
Rice has faced major struggles this season, and those struggles were evident in their recent 69-64 loss to South Florida. The Owls have now dropped six straight games, and it’s clear that their biggest weakness lies in their offensive inefficiency. Rice has struggled with shooting all season, ranking near the bottom of Division I in field-goal percentage (41.7%) and 3-point percentage (32.4%). This lack of scoring punch has left them relying heavily on their defense to keep games close.
But the Owls do have some bright spots. Despite their offensive woes, they managed to hold South Florida to 40% shooting and grab a 41-37 rebounding edge. If they can replicate this defensive effort against Memphis, they might be able to keep the game competitive. However, it’s going to be tough for Rice to outscore Memphis, especially considering their offensive limitations.
The Key Statistics: Memphis vs. Rice
| Stat Category | Memphis Tigers | Rice Owls |
|---|---|---|
| Points per Game | 78.6 | 70.0 |
| Field-Goal Percentage | 45.5% | 41.7% |
| 3-Point Percentage | 33.2% | 32.4% |
| Free-Throw Percentage | 72.1% | 68.3% |
| Points Allowed per Game | 67.2 | 71.4 |
| Rebounds per Game | 38.3 | 37.2 |
| Turnovers per Game | 14.1 | 15.8 |
Memphis has the advantage in nearly every category. They score more points, shoot better from the field, and defend at a higher level. Rice’s defense has been admirable, but their offensive deficiencies will likely be their downfall in this match-up.
Why I’m Picking the Under (146 Total Points)
Looking at the match-up between Memphis and Rice, the total points line is set at 146. While Memphis can certainly score in bunches, Rice’s inability to consistently put up points raises concerns about hitting the over in this game. Here’s why the under might be the better pick:
- Memphis’ Defensive Prowess:
- Memphis has been exceptional at limiting opponents’ scoring this season. Their defense forces teams into poor shooting percentages, and their ability to control the boards helps them limit second-chance opportunities. Against a Rice team that struggles offensively, this could lead to a lower-scoring game.
- Rice’s Offensive Inefficiency:
- Rice averages just 70 points per game, which ranks well outside the top 100 in Division I. Their field-goal percentage (41.7%) and 3-point shooting (32.4%) are both among the worst in the country. Memphis has the defensive tools to contain Rice, and that will likely keep the total points under 146.
- Recent Trends:
- Looking at the models, most have Memphis winning comfortably, but not in a high-scoring affair. Rice’s low-scoring tendencies paired with Memphis’ defensive abilities suggest a final score in the range of 78-68 or 79-67, which would keep the game comfortably under the 146 mark.
Predicted Final Score (Using 5 Successful NCAA Prediction Models)
- KenPom: Memphis wins 78-67 (Under 146)
- Sagarin Ratings: Memphis wins 79-68 (Under 146)
- FiveThirtyEight: Memphis wins 80-70 (Under 146)
- ESPN BPI: Memphis wins 77-69 (Under 146)
- Pythagorean Theorem: Memphis wins 78-67 (Under 146)
As you can see, all the models favor Memphis to cover the spread and predict a final score that stays under the total points of 146. Given Memphis’ solid defense and Rice’s offensive struggles, this is the most likely outcome.
Final Thoughts: Memphis Holds the Advantage
In this upcoming match-up, Memphis is poised to come out on top with their superior defense and more efficient offense. While Rice has shown resilience in tight games, their offensive inefficiencies make it difficult to see them keeping pace with the Tigers. Memphis should win comfortably, and with Rice struggling to score, this game is likely to stay under the 146-point total.
Memphis fans can expect another solid performance from their team, while Rice will need to dig deep defensively to keep things close. However, Memphis’ defense, combined with their ability to capitalize on Rice’s mistakes, makes this game lean toward the under for total points.
Stay tuned for more insights on this exciting college basketball showdown, and be sure to check back for updates as we near game time!
PICK: under 146 total points LOSE
