The Dayton Flyers and the Duquesne Dukes are set to clash tonight. This matchup is a pivotal Atlantic 10 Conference battle that has fans and analysts buzzing. With Dayton laying 3 points and the over/under set at 133.5, the game promises a mix of excitement, strategic matchups, and plenty of action on both ends of the court.
Date: Tuesday, January 21, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Arena: UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse, Pittsburgh, PA
Let’s dive into everything you need to know about this showdown, including why the over 133.5 is the optimal prediction for total points.
Team Overview: Dayton Flyers
Current Form
The Dayton Flyers come into this game with a strong 12-6 overall record and a 2-3 mark in Atlantic 10 conference play. Their offensive rhythm has been a defining factor this season, with the team averaging 75.2 points per game. However, their defensive inconsistencies, particularly on the road, have left room for improvement. Dayton’s defense has conceded an average of 72.8 points per game against conference opponents.
Key Stats
- Offensive PPG: 75.2
- Defensive PPG Allowed: 72.8
- Field Goal Percentage: 46.5%
- Three-Point Shooting: 36.2%
Recent Performance
Dayton has alternated between dominant wins and frustrating losses in recent weeks. Their ability to put points on the board has kept them competitive, but struggles on defense have made it difficult to close out games against top opponents. In their most recent outing, Dayton showcased their offensive prowess with a 78-70 win over Saint Joseph’s.
Player Lineup and Key Contributors
- DaRon Holmes II (Forward): Leads the team with an average of 17.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game.
- Toumani Camara (Forward): A consistent presence in the paint, averaging 12.8 points and 6.9 rebounds.
- Kobe Elvis (Guard): The team’s playmaker, averaging 10.5 points and 4.2 assists per game.
Team Overview: Duquesne Dukes
Current Form
The Duquesne Dukes have been a revelation this season with a 9-9 overall record and a 4-1 record in Atlantic 10 play. They’ve built momentum on a six-game home winning streak, showcasing their ability to protect their home court.
Key Stats
- Offensive PPG: 72.1
- Defensive PPG Allowed: 72.1
- Field Goal Percentage: 44.3%
- Rebounding Margin: +4.3
Recent Performance
Duquesne’s recent form has been encouraging. Their last game saw them secure a narrow 74-72 win against Richmond, driven by clutch performances from their guards. Notably, Duquesne’s games have frequently gone over the total points line in recent weeks, highlighting their offensive surge.
Player Lineup and Key Contributors
- Dae Dae Grant (Guard): The team’s leading scorer, averaging 16.8 points per game.
- Tre Williams (Forward): Anchors the paint with 10.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.
- Jimmy Clark III (Guard): Adds versatility with 11.4 points and 3.1 assists per game.
Why Over 133.5 Points Is the Best Pick
Scoring Trends
Both Dayton and Duquesne have shown a clear tendency toward higher-scoring games. Dayton’s offensive pace and Duquesne’s home-court efficiency align perfectly with the total points projection. In their last five games, Dayton games have averaged 147 total points, while Duquesne’s games have seen an average of 140 points.
Supporting Data from Prediction Models
Using five leading NCAA basketball prediction models, here’s the projected final score for this matchup:
- Model 1 (KenPom): Dayton 74, Duquesne 71 (145 total points)
- Model 2 (Sagarin): Dayton 76, Duquesne 70 (146 total points)
- Model 3 (TeamRankings): Dayton 73, Duquesne 72 (145 total points)
- Model 4 (Haslametrics): Dayton 75, Duquesne 69 (144 total points)
- Model 5 (BartTorvik): Dayton 77, Duquesne 68 (145 total points)
Factors Supporting the Over
- Recent Trends: Both teams have consistently gone over the total points line in recent games.
- Offensive Matchups: Dayton’s fast-paced offense and Duquesne’s ability to score at home set the stage for a high-scoring affair.
- Weak Defensive Metrics: Both teams struggle defensively, particularly in transition, which often leads to easy buckets.
- Clutch Performers: Players like DaRon Holmes II for Dayton and Dae Dae Grant for Duquesne have proven capable of putting up big numbers in key games.
Predicted Final Score
Dayton Flyers: 76
Duquesne Dukes: 70
Total Points: 146
This scoreline aligns with the statistical trends and scoring potential of both teams, reinforcing the choice of the over 133.5 total points.
Key Considerations for the Game
- Dayton’s Road Struggles: While their offense remains potent, Dayton’s defense on the road has been leaky.
- Duquesne’s Home Advantage: The Dukes’ strong record at UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse adds a layer of intrigue to this matchup.
- Pace of Play: Dayton’s fast-paced style is likely to dictate the tempo of the game, which should favor a higher-scoring outcome.
- Injury Report: Both teams are expected to have their core players available, minimizing variables that could affect scoring potential.
Conclusion
The Dayton Flyers and Duquesne Dukes bring contrasting strengths to this matchup, promising an engaging and competitive game. Dayton’s high-octane offense and Duquesne’s home-court resilience make this a must-watch encounter. Based on recent trends, team dynamics, and scoring potential, the over 133.5 total points is a confident pick. Fans can look forward to an action-packed game that’s likely to keep the scoreboard busy from start to finish.
Will Dayton’s road offense shine, or will Duquesne’s home crowd spur them to another victory? Either way, this is one matchup you won’t want to miss!
PICK: over 133.5 total points
