As the Los Angeles Clippers face off against the Portland Trail Blazers on January 16, 2025, all eyes will be on Norman Powell. With key players missing from the Clippers’ lineup, Powell is primed to take on a larger offensive role. His recent scoring surge and the Trail Blazers’ defensive struggles create a perfect storm for a standout performance. In this analysis, we delve into why betting on Powell to score over 24.5 points is not just promising—it’s a smart play for this matchup.
Analysis
Player Performance
- Norman Powell has been on an impressive scoring run, averaging 26.0 points over his last four games, including a standout performance where he scored 29 points against the Miami Heat just prior to this matchup.
- His shooting from beyond the arc has been particularly effective, hitting 5-of-8 three-pointers in that same game. Powell’s ability to stretch the floor is critical, as he averages 3.6 made three-pointers on 8.2 attempts per game with a shooting percentage of 44.3% from three-point range.
Matchup Considerations
- The Trail Blazers have struggled defensively, giving up an average of 117 points per game in their recent outings and allowing opponents to shoot well from three-point range. They rank among the worst teams in terms of defensive efficiency, which bodes well for Powell’s scoring opportunities.
- Additionally, with Kawhi Leonard resting and other key players like Terance Mann out, Powell is likely to see increased offensive responsibilities against a vulnerable Portland defense that allows 14.1 three-pointers per game, significantly above the league average.
Team Context
- The Clippers are positioned fifth in the Western Conference and are coming off a strong victory, which may boost their confidence heading into this game. In contrast, the Trail Blazers sit at 13th and are looking to break a losing streak, which could further amplify their defensive struggles against a potent Clippers offense.
Betting Market Analysis
- Current odds suggest that Powell’s prop line of 24.5 points reflects his recent form and the favorable matchup against Portland. Given his scoring average and recent performances, this line presents a positive expected value (+EV) for bettors.
- The implied probability of Powell exceeding this point total appears favorable considering his current trajectory and matchup dynamics.
Confidence Percentage
Based on the analysis of player performance, team context, and matchup specifics, I would assign a confidence percentage of 75% for this bet on Norman Powell scoring over 24.5 points. This reflects both his recent scoring ability and the defensive weaknesses of the Trail Blazers.
In summary, betting on Norman Powell to score over 24.5 points offers a compelling opportunity given his current form and the favorable matchup against a struggling Portland defense.
Pick: Take Norman Powell over 24.5 points.
