Eastern Conference Teams Eye Progress as Senators Face Islanders

Eastern Conference Teams Eye Progress as Senators Face Islanders

On January 14, 2025, the Ottawa Senators will face off against the New York Islanders at UBS Arena in Belmont Park, NY. This matchup is pivotal for both teams as they look to improve their standings in their respective divisions.

Current Standings

  • Ottawa Senators:
    • Record: 21 wins, 18 losses, 3 overtime losses (21-18-3)
    • Position: 5th in the Atlantic Division
  • New York Islanders:
    • Record: 17 wins, 18 losses, 7 overtime losses (17-18-7)
    • Position: 7th in the Metropolitan Division

Team Performance Comparison

Goals For/Against:

Team Goals Scored Goals Allowed Goals Per Game Goals Against Per Game
Ottawa Senators 122 120 2.9 2.86
New York Islanders 114 129 2.71 3.07

Power Play and Penalty Kill Percentages:

Team Power Play % Penalty Kill %
Ottawa Senators 24.09% 78.4%
New York Islanders 10.58% 65.17%

Shots on Goal and Save Percentages:

Team Shots on Goal Shooting % Save % Against
Ottawa Senators 1,244 9.8% .896
New York Islanders 1,212 9.24% .893

Recent Form

The Senators recently secured a narrow victory against the Dallas Stars, winning 3-2, while the Islanders also triumphed over the Utah Hockey Club with a score of 2-1. The Senators are showing resilience with Leevi Merilainen in goal, while the Islanders are aiming to extend their winning streak to four games.

Injury Report

  • Ottawa Senators:
    • Cole Reinhardt – Questionable
    • Noah Gregor – Out
  • New York Islanders:
    • Alexander Romanov – Out
    • Isaiah George – Questionable
    • Hudson Fasching – Out

Starting Goaltenders

  • Ottawa Senators: Leevi Merilainen
  • New York Islanders: Ilya Sorokin

Home/Away Performance Analysis

  • Ottawa Senators (Away):
    • Record: Approximately .500 performance on the road.
    • Goal Differential: Average goals scored per game is lower than home games.
  • New York Islanders (Home):
    • Stronger performance at home historically against Ottawa.
    • Average goals allowed at home is around their season average.

Special Teams Effectiveness

The Senators’ power play stands out significantly compared to the Islanders’, with a conversion rate of over 24%. In contrast, the Islanders have struggled with their power play at just over 10%. Defensively, both teams have room for improvement, but the Islanders’ penalty kill has been notably poor at around 65%.

Head-to-Head History

Recent matchups have favored the Islanders, who have not lost in regulation time at home against Ottawa in their last eight encounters. The last meeting on December 8, where the Islanders won decisively, adds to this trend.

Advanced Metrics and Puck Possession

Using advanced metrics like Corsi and Fenwick can provide insight into puck possession and shot quality:

  • The Senators have shown better possession metrics this season compared to the Islanders.

Face-off win percentages will also play a crucial role; teams that control face-offs often dictate play.

Rest and Schedule Impact

Both teams are coming off recent games with light travel schedules. However, fatigue could be a factor as they head into this matchup.

Strength of Schedule

The quality of opponents faced recently may influence team morale and performance levels heading into this game.

Betting Trends and Line Movement

The current betting lines show Ottawa as the underdog (+100) while New York is favored (-120). The puck line is set at +1.5 for Ottawa and total goals at set at over/under of 5.5.

Prediction Summary

Based on comprehensive analysis:

  • Predicted Final Score: Ottawa Senators 3, New York Islanders 2
  • Confidence Level in Prediction: Medium
  • Recommended Bet Type: Moneyline on Ottawa Senators due to favorable odds and recent form.

Additionally, consider player props such as Brady Tkachuk for scoring based on his recent performances.

Key Matchups

Key players to watch include:

  • Brady Tkachuk (OTT): Leading scorer who can change the game’s momentum.
  • Ilya Sorokin (NYI): His performance will be critical; if he can regain form, it could shift the outcome in favor of the Islanders.

This matchup promises to be an exciting contest as both teams strive for crucial points in their playoff push.

PICK: Ottawa Senators Puck Line +1.5