On January 14, 2025, the Ottawa Senators will face off against the New York Islanders at UBS Arena in Belmont Park, NY. This matchup is pivotal for both teams as they look to improve their standings in their respective divisions.
Current Standings
- Ottawa Senators:
- Record: 21 wins, 18 losses, 3 overtime losses (21-18-3)
- Position: 5th in the Atlantic Division
- New York Islanders:
- Record: 17 wins, 18 losses, 7 overtime losses (17-18-7)
- Position: 7th in the Metropolitan Division
Team Performance Comparison
Goals For/Against:
Team | Goals Scored | Goals Allowed | Goals Per Game | Goals Against Per Game |
---|---|---|---|---|
Ottawa Senators | 122 | 120 | 2.9 | 2.86 |
New York Islanders | 114 | 129 | 2.71 | 3.07 |
Power Play and Penalty Kill Percentages:
Team | Power Play % | Penalty Kill % |
---|---|---|
Ottawa Senators | 24.09% | 78.4% |
New York Islanders | 10.58% | 65.17% |
Shots on Goal and Save Percentages:
Team | Shots on Goal | Shooting % | Save % Against |
---|---|---|---|
Ottawa Senators | 1,244 | 9.8% | .896 |
New York Islanders | 1,212 | 9.24% | .893 |
Recent Form
The Senators recently secured a narrow victory against the Dallas Stars, winning 3-2, while the Islanders also triumphed over the Utah Hockey Club with a score of 2-1. The Senators are showing resilience with Leevi Merilainen in goal, while the Islanders are aiming to extend their winning streak to four games.
Injury Report
- Ottawa Senators:
- Cole Reinhardt – Questionable
- Noah Gregor – Out
- New York Islanders:
- Alexander Romanov – Out
- Isaiah George – Questionable
- Hudson Fasching – Out
Starting Goaltenders
- Ottawa Senators: Leevi Merilainen
- New York Islanders: Ilya Sorokin
Home/Away Performance Analysis
- Ottawa Senators (Away):
- Record: Approximately .500 performance on the road.
- Goal Differential: Average goals scored per game is lower than home games.
- New York Islanders (Home):
- Stronger performance at home historically against Ottawa.
- Average goals allowed at home is around their season average.
Special Teams Effectiveness
The Senators’ power play stands out significantly compared to the Islanders’, with a conversion rate of over 24%. In contrast, the Islanders have struggled with their power play at just over 10%. Defensively, both teams have room for improvement, but the Islanders’ penalty kill has been notably poor at around 65%.
Head-to-Head History
Recent matchups have favored the Islanders, who have not lost in regulation time at home against Ottawa in their last eight encounters. The last meeting on December 8, where the Islanders won decisively, adds to this trend.
Advanced Metrics and Puck Possession
Using advanced metrics like Corsi and Fenwick can provide insight into puck possession and shot quality:
- The Senators have shown better possession metrics this season compared to the Islanders.
Face-off win percentages will also play a crucial role; teams that control face-offs often dictate play.
Rest and Schedule Impact
Both teams are coming off recent games with light travel schedules. However, fatigue could be a factor as they head into this matchup.
Strength of Schedule
The quality of opponents faced recently may influence team morale and performance levels heading into this game.
Betting Trends and Line Movement
The current betting lines show Ottawa as the underdog (+100) while New York is favored (-120). The puck line is set at +1.5 for Ottawa and total goals at set at over/under of 5.5.
Prediction Summary
Based on comprehensive analysis:
- Predicted Final Score: Ottawa Senators 3, New York Islanders 2
- Confidence Level in Prediction: Medium
- Recommended Bet Type: Moneyline on Ottawa Senators due to favorable odds and recent form.
Additionally, consider player props such as Brady Tkachuk for scoring based on his recent performances.
Key Matchups
Key players to watch include:
- Brady Tkachuk (OTT): Leading scorer who can change the game’s momentum.
- Ilya Sorokin (NYI): His performance will be critical; if he can regain form, it could shift the outcome in favor of the Islanders.
This matchup promises to be an exciting contest as both teams strive for crucial points in their playoff push.