Date: Friday, December 13, 2024
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Arena: CU Events Center, Boulder, CO
Get ready for an electrifying matchup as the South Dakota State Jackrabbits travel to Boulder, Colorado, to take on the Buffaloes. This game promises to be a thrilling encounter, showcasing two teams eager to prove themselves as they gear up for the heart of their seasons. With both squads boasting dynamic rosters and distinct playing styles, fans can expect a fast-paced, high-scoring affair.
As we dive into this analysis, we’ll explore each team’s current form, key statistics, notable injuries, and why betting on the over for total points could be a smart move.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
The Jackrabbits come into this game with an 8-4 record, but their recent performance has been a mixed bag. After a tough 77-63 loss to Nevada, they are looking to bounce back and regain their momentum. Despite that setback, South Dakota State has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season. They are known for their explosive offense, averaging around 75 points per game. Led by senior center Oscar Cluff, who is averaging 17.3 points and 11.0 rebounds per game, the Jackrabbits have the firepower to keep up with any opponent.
However, they face challenges on the defensive end, allowing about 72 points per game. If they can tighten up their defense while maintaining their scoring output, they could pose a significant threat to Colorado.
Colorado Buffaloes
On the other side of the court, the Colorado Buffaloes are riding high with a 7-2 record and two consecutive wins under their belt. Their most recent victory was a convincing 72-55 win over in-state rival Colorado State. The Buffaloes have been steadily improving, particularly on the defensive end, where they have allowed an average of 67.5 points per game.
Offensively, Colorado is averaging around 80.9 points at home, showcasing their ability to score efficiently. Key players like Andrej Jakimovski (13.0 ppg), Julian Hammond III (12.3 ppg), and Elijah Moore (12.0 ppg) have stepped up to fill the void left by last year’s NCAA Tournament team. With their strong home-court advantage at CU Events Center and growing chemistry among players, Colorado is looking formidable as they prepare for conference play.
Key Statistics: Numbers That Matter
When analyzing this matchup, several key statistics stand out that could influence the game’s outcome:
- Offensive Efficiency:
- Colorado: Averaging 80.9 points per game at home with an effective field goal percentage of 48.7%.
- South Dakota State: Scoring 75.2 points per game with an effective field goal percentage of 55.2%.
- Defensive Performance:
- Colorado: Allowing 67.5 points per game, showing solid defensive capabilities.
- South Dakota State: Giving up 72 points per game, indicating vulnerability on defense.
- Rebounding:
- Both teams are competitive on the boards, with Colorado holding a slight edge in rebounding percentage at 52.3% compared to South Dakota State’s 51.4%.
These statistics highlight that while both teams can score effectively, Colorado has a slight advantage defensively that could play a crucial role in this matchup.
Notable Injuries: Impact on Game Strategy
Injuries can significantly affect team performance and strategy, and this game is no exception:
- Oscar Cluff (South Dakota State): Cluff has been nursing an ankle injury that limited his effectiveness in recent games. His health will be pivotal; if he is not at full strength, South Dakota State may struggle to find consistent scoring against a solid Colorado defense.
- Colorado Buffaloes: As of now, Colorado appears to be relatively healthy with no significant injuries reported that would impact their rotation or performance.
With Cluff’s status uncertain leading up to the game, it’s essential to monitor any updates regarding his condition as it could shift the dynamics of this matchup.
Why Bet the Over (145.5 Total Points)?
Now let’s talk about why betting on the over for total points—set at 145.5—is an appealing option for this matchup:
- High Scoring Potential: Both teams have shown they can put up significant numbers offensively. Colorado’s home scoring average of nearly 81 points combined with South Dakota State’s ability to score in the mid-70s suggests that reaching or exceeding 146 total points is within reach.
- Efficient Shooting: With both teams boasting effective field goal percentages above 48%, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities throughout the game.
- Pace of Play: The tempo at which both teams play can lead to fast-break opportunities and open shots from beyond the arc—factors that typically contribute to higher-scoring games.
- Prediction Models Support: Here are predictions from five respected NCAA basketball models:
- KenPom: Predicts a final score of Colorado 78 – South Dakota State 70 (Total: 148).
- Sagarin Ratings: Projects Colorado winning 79 – South Dakota State 71 (Total: 150).
- Bart Torvik: Forecasts Colorado 77 – South Dakota State 69 (Total: 146).
- Haslametrics: Estimates Colorado winning by a score of 76 – South Dakota State 72 (Total: 148).
- BPI (Basketball Power Index): Suggests a close contest with Colorado winning 75 – South Dakota State 73 (Total: 148).
All five models predict totals well above the line of 145.5 points, reinforcing the notion that both teams possess offensive capabilities that could lead to a high-scoring affair.
Conclusion
As we gear up for this exciting showdown between the South Dakota State Jackrabbits and the Colorado Buffaloes, it’s clear that fans are in for a treat. With both teams showcasing strong offensive talents and some defensive vulnerabilities, expect plenty of action on both ends of the court.
The over at 145.5 total points seems like a savvy choice given each team’s scoring potential and recent performances. With key players like Oscar Cluff potentially impacting South Dakota State’s output and Colorado’s home-court advantage playing a significant role in their success, this game has all the makings of a thrilling contest that could easily exceed expectations.
PICK: over 145.5 total points
