Illinois and Arkansas Face Off in Kansas City: Key Factors to Watch

Date: November 28, 2024
Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO

Overview

Both Arkansas (5-1) and Illinois (5-1) enter the matchup with dominant early-season performances. Arkansas boasts an impressive 109-35 victory over Maryland-Eastern Shore, while Illinois crushed Little Rock 92-34. Both teams have solid scoring margins, with Arkansas averaging 81.2 PPG and Illinois averaging 89.0 PPG. Both defenses allow approximately 59.2 points per game.

Key injuries include Jonas Aidoo (Arkansas) and Ty Rodgers (Illinois), both of whom are significant contributors to their respective rosters. This matchup will likely hinge on Arkansas’ sharpshooter Boogie Fland (48.1% from three) and Illinois’ balanced attack led by Will Riley and Tomislav Ivisic.

Prediction Models

1. BetQL: Predicts Illinois to cover the spread and the total to slightly exceed 154.5 points. Expected final score: Illinois 82, Arkansas 78.
2. SportsLine: Also favors Illinois with a projected score of Illinois 84, Arkansas 80, predicting the over to hit.
3. DRatings: Projects a tight contest with Illinois winning 81-78, leaning slightly towards the under.
4. OddsTrader: Predicts a high-scoring affair, Illinois edging Arkansas 85-81, with the over hitting.
5. OddShark: Aligns closely with others, forecasting a final score around Illinois 83, Arkansas 79, pushing the total slightly above 154.5.

Averaged Model Output:

• Final Score: Illinois 83, Arkansas 79
• Moneyline: Illinois wins outright.
• Spread: Illinois covers -2.5.
• Total: Game goes over 154.5.

Analytical Breakdown

Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Both teams have faced relatively weak opponents. Arkansas’ SOS improves slightly after its test against Purdue (their lone loss). Illinois has played a similarly unchallenging schedule, meaning this game will provide a truer test of each team’s abilities.

Pythagorean Expectation

Using season-long scoring margins:

• Arkansas: Win Percentage=81.2281.22+59.22≈0.75\text{Win Percentage} = \frac{81.2^2}{81.2^2 + 59.2^2} \approx 0.75Win Percentage=81.22+59.2281.22​≈0.75
• Illinois: Win Percentage=89.0289.02+59.22≈0.82\text{Win Percentage} = \frac{89.0^2}{89.0^2 + 59.2^2} \approx 0.82Win Percentage=89.02+59.2289.02​≈0.82

This model gives Illinois a slight edge in expected performance based on offensive and defensive efficiency.

Player Matchups

• Arkansas: Boogie Fland’s three-point shooting will challenge Illinois’ perimeter defense, though Aidoo’s absence weakens Arkansas’ rebounding against Ivisic.
• Illinois: Riley and Ivisic provide a more balanced inside-out scoring threat, and the team’s depth offers advantages if the game tempo increases.

Final Prediction

Combining model predictions with analysis:

• Final Score: Illinois 84, Arkansas 80
• Moneyline: Illinois wins outright (-137).
• Spread: Illinois covers -2.5.
• Total: Over 154.5.

Best Betting Picks

1. Spread: Bet on Illinois -2.5. Their offensive depth and rebounding advantage should secure at least a three-point victory.
2. Total: Over 154.5. Both teams have high offensive ceilings and moderate defensive gaps in transition play, supporting a high-scoring game.
3. Moneyline: Favor Illinois (-137) for safer wagers, though the spread offers slightly better value.

PICK: Total Points Over 154.5 (WIN)