Breaking Down Auburn’s Home Advantage Against Texas A&M

To analyze the upcoming NCAA football game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Auburn Tigers on November 23, 2024, at Jordan-Hare Stadium, we will evaluate predictions from various models, consider team statistics, player injuries, and apply the Pythagorean theorem for a comprehensive forecast.

Game Overview

• Teams: Texas A&M Aggies vs. Auburn Tigers
• Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
• Kickoff: November 23, 2024
• Moneyline: Texas A&M -128 (favorite), Auburn +108 (underdog)
• Spread: Texas A&M -2.5
• Total Points Over/Under: 46.5

Team Performances

Texas A&M Aggies

• Record: 8-2 overall, 5-1 SEC, ranked 15th.
• Offensive Stats:
  • Points per Game: 30.1 (7th in SEC)
  • Total Yards per Game: 412.4
  • Rushing Yards per Game: 212.5 (2nd in SEC)
• Defensive Stats:
  • Points Allowed per Game: 20.1 (4th in SEC)

Key Players:

• Marcel Reed (QB): 1,129 yards, 9 TDs, 2 INTs.
• Le’Veon Moss (RB): 765 rushing yards, 10 TDs.

Auburn Tigers

• Record: 4-6 overall, 1-5 SEC.
• Offensive Stats:
  • Points per Game: 27.6 (13th in SEC)
  • Total Yards per Game: 428.5
• Defensive Stats:
  • Points Allowed per Game: 18.7 (5th in SEC)

Key Players:

• Payton Thorne (QB): 2,111 yards, 18 TDs, 7 INTs.
• Jarquez Hunter (RB): 1,015 rushing yards, 5 TDs.

Injury Report

Texas A&M Aggies

• Key Injuries:
  • Jaylen Henderson (QB), Rueben Owens (RB), Chase Bisontis (OL), Tyreek Chappell (DB).

Auburn Tigers

• Key Injuries:
  • Caleb Wooden (S), Brandon Frazier (TE), Alex McPherson (K).

Prediction Models Analysis

Top Prediction Models

1. Football Power Index (FPI): Simulates games using analytics to predict outcomes.
   • Predicted Score: Texas A&M wins by a narrow margin.
2. SportsLine Model: Utilizes simulations to predict scores and outcomes.
   • Predicted Score: Texas A&M by approximately three points.
3. Dimers.com Model: Analyzes extensive simulations for win probabilities.
   • Predicted Score: Texas A&M with a slight edge.
4. BetQL Model: Focuses on betting trends and statistical analysis.
   • Predicted Score: Similar to SportsLine’s prediction.
5. DeepCFB Model: Employs deep learning techniques for predictions.
   • Predicted Score: Close game but favors Texas A&M.

Average Predictions from Models

After aggregating predictions from these models:

• Average Final Score Prediction:
  • Texas A&M Aggies: ~24
  • Auburn Tigers: ~21

Pythagorean Expectation Calculation

Using the Pythagorean theorem for football:

For Texas A&M:

For Auburn:

Final Prediction and Betting Analysis

Considering the average model predictions and applying the Pythagorean expectation alongside strength of schedule and player injuries:

Final Prediction

• Texas A&M Aggies Win by a Score of ~24 to ~21

Betting Recommendations

• Moneyline Pick: Favoring Texas A&M (-125).
• Spread Pick: Take Texas A&M to cover the spread (-2.5).

Conclusion

The analysis suggests that while both teams have strengths and weaknesses, Texas A&M’s superior record and offensive capabilities combined with Auburn’s injury concerns position them as the likely victor in this matchup at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

PICK: Texas A&M Moneyline -125