The Role of Betting Trends: A Guide for Sports Bettors

The Role of Betting Trends: A Guide for Sports Bettors

If you’re diving into sports betting, you’ve probably noticed the temptation to lean on trends—those sweet little stats showing how a team has performed in certain situations or how often specific outcomes have happened. Maybe you saw that “Team A has covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 road games,” and thought, “Well, that’s a no-brainer. Where’s my betting slip?” While trends can be super useful, treating them like gospel without considering the bigger picture is a rookie mistake—kind of like picking your fantasy football team based solely on which players have the best hair.

Why Betting Trends Matter

At the core, betting trends are just patterns based on past performances. They give us a glimpse into how teams, coaches, and players typically perform under certain conditions. For example, a trend might show that a certain NFL team does well on the road ATS (against the spread), or that an NBA squad bounces back strong after a bad loss. These trends often stem from deeper factors like coaching style, player matchups, or even something as simple as the weather (which, yes, sometimes really does matter).

Here’s why trends are worth paying attention to:

• Understanding Team Performance: Trends can help you see how a team performs in certain situations. Maybe they’re great in the second half, or maybe they choke when facing top-ranked teams. Recognizing these patterns helps set expectations for upcoming games (and helps avoid betting on a team that always seems to blow it in the fourth quarter).
• Spotting Player and Coach Habits: Coaches and players have their quirks that influence games. For example, a coach might prioritize defense when the game is tight, or a certain player always turns it up when facing their old team. These habits often show up in betting trends, and knowing them can give you an edge.
• Historical Context: Trends let you see how a team has historically done in similar situations. If you’re betting on a playoff-bound team in November or December, for instance, knowing how they’ve performed late in the season in previous years could help you make a more informed decision.
• Market Overreactions: Sometimes the betting public overreacts to a single event, like an injury, and trends can highlight this. If a team loses a star player but has covered the spread without them in the past, the betting market might be overvaluing that injury. This opens up the chance to make a value bet.

How Bettors Use Betting Trends

Bettors love trends, but they’re just one piece of the puzzle. Here’s how trends fit into the broader betting process:

• Refining Predictions: Trends help narrow down your predictions, especially when paired with other data points like team form, injury reports, and matchups. For example, if a team is 8-1 ATS after a bye week, that’s something you’ll definitely want to factor into your bet—but you’ll still want to check if there are any other factors (like a key player’s injury) that could affect the outcome.
• Betting Strategy: A lot of bettors incorporate trends into their larger betting systems. For example, “fading the public” is a common strategy where you bet against teams the public is all-in on. If a trend supports fading the public, it might help you pull the trigger on a bet.
• Situational Analysis: Betting trends help you analyze situations that may not be obvious at first glance. Some teams perform better when playing on short rest, while others struggle. These small situational nuances show up in trends and can help you predict what might happen in a game.

Why You Can’t Just Follow Trends Blindly

While trends can be helpful, never bet just because a trend looks good. It’s like only listening to your friend who always says they “know a guy” who can get you tickets to anything. Trends provide context, but they’re not the whole picture. Here’s why:

• Trends Can Be Misleading: Just because something happened in the past doesn’t mean it’ll keep happening. Teams and players evolve, and trends can be cyclical. For example, a team might have historically done well in cold weather games, but a new roster and coaching staff might change that. That’s when you’ve gotta read between the lines and ask, “What’s actually different this time?”
• Injuries and Roster Changes: Teams change. Injuries, trades, and roster moves can completely mess with established trends. A star player going down could render a trend irrelevant. Or, on the flip side, a new player might turn an underperforming team into a serious contender. Trends don’t always account for these changes, so you have to stay sharp.
• Context is Key: Numbers are great, but they don’t tell the whole story. A trend might show a team struggling against a certain opponent, but it might not take into account a recent coaching change, a breakout player, or even that one weird game where everything went wrong. Context helps you separate the noise from the signal.
• Overfitting the Data: It’s easy to get too obsessed with finding the trend that fits your narrative. But that’s how you end up seeing trends everywhere and, trust me, sometimes it’s just random noise. So don’t be that guy who’s out here looking for trends where there are none—stick to the basics, and you’ll be fine.

Key Betting Trends for November 2024 

Here are some key trends to consider for NFL Week 12 and other major sports leagues this November. But as always, use these alongside other factors (like team news, injuries, and situational context):

NFL Week 12 Trends:

• Road Underdogs: Historically, road underdogs in Week 12 have covered the spread 60% of the time. These teams tend to play with more urgency as they fight for playoff spots. Plus, they’re often undervalued by the public, which gives you a potential edge.
• Home Teams with Winning Records: Home teams with a winning record have covered the spread at a high rate (around 68%) in Week 12 over the past five years. These teams are usually playoff contenders, and home-field advantage means more as the weather turns colder.
• Teams Coming Off a Bye: Teams coming off a bye week in Week 12 have covered about 55% of the time in the last five years. The bye gives teams time to rest, but sometimes it can also make them a little rusty when they return.
• Divisional Matchups: In divisional games, underdogs tend to do better ATS (58%) in Week 12. Familiarity breeds both rivalry and tight games, so the underdog in these matchups can often surprise.

NBA November Trends:

• Bounce-Back Teams: Teams that lose by double digits in their last game have historically covered the spread 58% of the time in November. This is especially true for teams with veteran leadership that know how to regroup quickly after a rough outing.
• West Coast Teams on the Road: Western Conference teams are often more successful ATS when playing in the Eastern time zone, especially for late-night games. It’s like their internal clocks just know how to adjust better than the East Coast teams’ (lucky them).

NHL November Trends:

• Hot Goaltenders: Goalies who are playing well can often carry their teams to cover the puck line, especially when facing weaker opponents. Look for these “hot goalie” matchups to spot potential value on underdogs.
• Teams on Extended Road Trips: Teams on long road trips (5+ games) tend to struggle in the latter half, covering just 39% of the time. Fatigue sets in, and sometimes they just want to get home already.

NCAAF November Trends:

• Power Five (schools) vs. Group of Five (schools) Matchups: Power Five teams typically have more to play for, especially when pushing for a playoff spot or a major bowl game. In matchups against Group of Five teams, Power Five favorites have covered the spread 70% of the time in the last five Novembers. These games can often be lopsided because of the talent disparity, but they’re even more pronounced in late-season play when the stakes are high for the Power Five teams. Group of Five: American Athletic Conference (AAC), Conference USA, Mid-American Conference (MAC), Mountain West Conference, and Sun Belt Conference. Power Five: ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC conferences
• Teams with a Losing Record in Bowl-Eligible Games: As teams try to become bowl eligible, we see a shift in motivation. Teams with a losing record trying to secure a bowl game in November have historically covered the spread at a surprising rate of 59%. These teams are often underdogs but fight hard in the final stretch to reach the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility. They bring urgency, and you’ll see them play with extra intensity in key late-season matchups.
• Teams on a Roll in November: Some teams just seem to find their stride late in the season, and it’s no coincidence. Historically, teams that have won four or more consecutive games in November have covered the spread 67% of the time. These teams are typically in peak form, with momentum on their side and often looking to make a statement heading into bowl season. The longer they win, the more they tend to keep rolling.

Conclusion: Use Trends, But Don’t Rely on Them Alone

Trends are a great resource, but they’re only part of the picture. Always use trends alongside other factors like current team form, injuries, and situational context. No trend is a guaranteed win, so bet smart, bet informed, and bet responsibly.

Good luck with your bets this November, and remember: even the best trends can be like that one friend who always brags about getting into a club with no line—it doesn’t always work out that way for you. Stay sharp!