The upcoming college football game on November 15, 2024, at Sonny Lubick Field in Fort Collins, Colorado, features a matchup between the Wyoming Cowboys and the Colorado State Rams. This analysis will leverage various prediction models, including BetQL and SportsLine, to forecast the game’s outcome while considering team statistics, injuries, and other relevant factors.
Team Overview
Wyoming Cowboys
- Record: 2-7 overall, 2-3 in the Mountain West Conference (MWC)
- Points Per Game: 21.6 (ranked 113th nationally)
- Points Allowed Per Game: 31.7 (ranked 101st nationally)
- Key Injuries:
- Sam Scott (RB)
- DJ Jones (RB)
- Alex Brown (WR)
- Dawaiian McNeely (RB)
Colorado State Rams
- Record: 6-3 overall, 4-0 in MWC
- Points Per Game: 23.6 (ranked 102nd nationally)
- Points Allowed Per Game: 24.1 (ranked 54th nationally)
- Key Injuries:
- Tory Horton (WR)
- Jaxxon Warren (TE)
Prediction Models Analysis
Top NCAA Football Prediction Models
- ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI): Projects Colorado State as the favorite with a strong likelihood of winning.
- Sagarin Ratings: This model also favors Colorado State by a significant margin due to their superior record and home-field advantage.
- FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Predictions: Provides a probability of victory for Colorado State around 70%.
- BetQL Model: Predicts Colorado State will cover the spread based on recent performance trends.
- SportsLine Model: Simulates the game multiple times and consistently shows Colorado State winning by a margin exceeding the spread.
BetQL and SportsLine Insights
- BetQL suggests that Colorado State has been strong against the spread recently, covering in six consecutive games.
- SportsLine’s simulations indicate an average score of approximately Colorado State 30 – Wyoming 20, aligning with the projected total points over/under of 46.5.
Average Final Score Prediction
Combining insights from these models, we can estimate an average final score:
- Colorado State Rams: 30
- Wyoming Cowboys: 20
This results in a combined score of 50, suggesting an “OVER” bet on the total points.
Moneyline and Spread Predictions
- Moneyline Prediction: Colorado State (-347) is favored to win outright.
- Spread Prediction: The spread is set at Colorado State -9.5. Given their recent performance and Wyoming’s struggles, it is reasonable to predict that Colorado State will cover this spread.
Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule
Using the Pythagorean theorem for football, we can evaluate expected wins based on points scored and allowed:
For Colorado State:
- Points Scored = 23.6, Points Allowed = 24.1
Calculating expected wins:
For Wyoming:
- Points Scored = 21.6, Points Allowed = 31.7
Calculating expected wins:
These calculations suggest that Colorado State has a stronger performance metric compared to Wyoming, corroborating their status as favorites.
Key Player Impact and Trends
Injuries significantly impact both teams:
- Wyoming’s missing players in key positions like running back may hinder their offensive capabilities.
- Colorado State’s injuries to wide receivers could affect their passing game but they have shown depth in their running attack with Avery Morrow leading the charge.
Recent trends also favor Colorado State:
- They have won four straight games and are undefeated in conference play.
- Wyoming has struggled defensively, allowing an average of over 30 points per game.
Conclusion and Best Picks
Based on the analysis of prediction models, statistical evaluations using Pythagorean expectations, and current team conditions:
- Best Pick for Moneyline: Colorado State Rams (-347).
- Best Pick for Spread: Colorado State Rams to cover -9.5.
- Total Points Prediction: Bet on “OVER” for total points set at 46.5.
This comprehensive analysis indicates that Colorado State is likely to secure a decisive victory against Wyoming, maintaining their strong position in the Mountain West Conference while capitalizing on their home-field advantage at Canvas Stadium.
