Keys to Victory: How Memphis and Rice Stack Up for Friday Night Football

On November 8, 2024, the Rice Owls will face off against the Memphis Tigers at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, TN. This matchup features the Owls as the road underdogs with a moneyline of +253, while the Tigers are favored at -319. The spread is set at 8 points, and the total for the game is established at 51.

Team Overview

Rice Owls

• Record: 3-6 overall, 2-3 in the American Athletic Conference (AAC)
• Points Per Game: 21.9
• Points Allowed Per Game: 23.3
• Key Players:
  • E.J. Warner (QB): 1,812 yards, 11 TDs, 10 INTs
  • Matt Sykes (WR): 569 yards, 4 TDs

Memphis Tigers

• Record: 7-2 overall, 3-2 in the AAC
• Points Per Game: 34.2
• Points Allowed Per Game: 23.4
• Key Players:
  • Seth Henigan (QB): Leading passer with significant yardage and touchdowns.

Injury Report

Rice Owls:

• Boden Groen (TE) – Out
• Landon Ransom-Goelz (WR) – Out

Memphis Tigers:

• Demeer Blankumsee (WR) – Questionable
• Marcello Bussey (WR) – Out for the season
• Brandon Thomas (RB) – Out for the season
• Sutton Smith (RB) – Out for the season

Recent Performance and Trends

Rice comes into this game after an impressive victory over Navy, winning 24-10. This performance highlighted their strong defensive capabilities, particularly against the pass. The Owls have allowed fewer than 24 points in most of their recent games, showcasing a solid defensive unit.Memphis, on the other hand, suffered a disappointing loss to UTSA last week (44-36). Despite their high-scoring offense averaging over 34 points per game, they have shown vulnerability on defense, allowing nearly as many points as they score.

Prediction Models

To predict the outcome of this matchup, we can analyze several NCAA Football prediction models alongside BetQL and Sportsline:

1. BetQL Model: Predicts Memphis to win by a score of approximately 30 to 22.
2. Sportsline Model: Suggests a close game with Memphis winning by a narrow margin.
3. FiveThirtyEight Model: Gives Memphis a high probability of winning but notes potential for an upset.
4. Action Network Model: Similar to BetQL, predicts a Memphis victory but cautions about covering the spread.
5. Covers.com Model: Projects a final score of around Memphis 32, Rice 19.

Average Final Score Prediction

Calculating an average from these predictions gives us:

Thus, we can predict a final score of:Memphis Tigers: 31 | Rice Owls: 20

Moneyline and Spread Predictions

Based on these predictions:

• Moneyline Result: Memphis (-319) is favored to win.
• Spread Prediction: With an average score of Memphis winning by about 11 points, they are likely to cover the spread of -8.

Additional Considerations

Using the Pythagorean theorem for football scoring:

From our calculations based on team performance:

• Rice’s Pythagorean expectation is approximately $20$.
• Memphis’s Pythagorean expectation is approximately $31$.

Given both teams’ strength of schedule and recent performances, Memphis appears to have a significant edge.

Conclusion and Best Pick

Considering all factors—team performance metrics, injury reports, and model predictions—the best pick for this game is:

• Pick Against Spread: Memphis Tigers (-8)
• Total Points Prediction (Over/Under): Lean towards “Under” given both teams’ scoring averages compared to their defensive capabilities.

This analysis suggests that while Memphis is favored to win comfortably against Rice, caution should be exercised regarding their ability to cover the spread due to their recent form and injuries affecting key players.

PICK: Memphis Tigers Spread -8 (LOSE)