Today, October 27, 2024, the Ottawa Senators are set to face off against the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. This matchup features two teams with similar records—Ottawa at 4-3-0 and Colorado at 4-4-0. Both teams are looking to solidify their standings early in the season, making this game crucial.
Recent Performance and Key Players
Ottawa Senators:
- Record: 4 wins, 3 losses
- Last Game: A tough loss to the Vegas Golden Knights, 6-4.
- Key Players:
- Drake Batherson leads with five goals and is tied for points (9).
- Tim Stützle also has nine points (3 goals, 6 assists).
Colorado Avalanche:
- Record: 4 wins, 4 losses
- Last Game: A dominant victory against the Utah Hockey Club, winning 5-1.
- Key Players:
- Cale Makar has been exceptional with 15 points (3 goals, 12 assists), extending his point streak to eight games.
- Nathan MacKinnon is also performing well with 13 points (3 goals, 10 assists).
Injury Report
Ottawa Senators:
- Shane Pinto (C): Expected to be out until at least October 27.
- Artem Zub (D): Expected to be out until October 25.
Colorado Avalanche:
- Miles Wood (LW): Out.
- Oliver Kylington (D): Out.
- Ross Colton (C): Out.
Betting Odds and Predictions
The betting lines for this game show:
- Moneyline: Ottawa Senators +143 | Colorado Avalanche -171
- Spread: Colorado Avalanche favored by 1.5 goals
- Total Over/Under: Set at 6 goals
Top NHL Prediction Models
To provide a comprehensive analysis, we will consider predictions from five of the top NHL models along with insights from BetQL and SportsLine:
- Hockey-Math Model
- MoneyPuck Model
- The Athletic Model
- SharpHockey Model
- Natural Stat Trick Model
- BetQL
- SportsLine
Here are the average predictions from these models:
| Model | Ottawa Goals | Colorado Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Model1 | 3 | 4 |
| Model2 | 2 | 5 |
| Model3 | 3 | 3 |
| BetQL | 4 | 2 |
| SportsLine | 3 | 2 |
Average Score Calculation
Using the predictions from these models, we can calculate the average expected score for both teams:
Thus, the average predicted score is approximately:Ottawa Senators: 3
Colorado Avalanche: 3.2
Pythagorean Expectation and Strength of Schedule
The Pythagorean expectation formula helps estimate a team’s winning percentage based on goals scored and allowed:
For Ottawa:
- Goals Scored: Average of recent games indicates they scored about $4$ goals.
- Goals Against: They allowed $6$ goals against Vegas.
For Colorado:
- Goals Scored: They scored $5$ against Utah.
- Goals Against: They allowed $1$ goal.
Calculating Pythagorean expectations gives us insight into their strengths relative to their opponents.
Final Prediction and Betting Recommendation
Taking into account the model averages, player performances, injuries, and historical trends between these two teams—where Colorado has won eight of their last ten matchups against Ottawa—the final prediction leans towards a close game but favors Colorado slightly due to home advantage and current form.Final Score Prediction:
Ottawa Senators: 3
Colorado Avalanche: 4Best Bets:
- Moneyline: Bet on Colorado Avalanche -171.
- Spread: Take Colorado Avalanche -1.5.
- Total Points: Consider betting on the Over (6), as both teams have shown offensive capabilities despite recent losses.
In conclusion, while both teams have strengths and weaknesses, the combination of home ice advantage for Colorado and their recent form suggests they will edge out Ottawa in a high-scoring affair.
