In the upcoming October 20, 2024, NHL matchup between the Los Angeles Kings and the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center in Anaheim, CA, fans are in for an intriguing face-off. The Kings enter as road favorites, boasting a moneyline of -181, while the Ducks are home underdogs with a moneyline of +152. The spread is set at 1.5, and the total for the game is listed at 6 goals. This game pits two Pacific Division rivals, with both teams aiming to gain early momentum in the season.
Breaking Down the Teams
Los Angeles Kings (2-1-2) The Kings are coming off a much-needed 4-1 victory against the Montreal Canadiens, breaking a three-game winless streak. Despite a slow start, they’ve shown potential and now look to build upon that momentum. Over their last ten games, the Kings are averaging 1.7 goals per game while allowing an average of 1.8 goals per contest. Special teams have been a weak point, as they rank third in the league for penalties committed, averaging 2.8 penalties per game.
Leading the offensive charge is Alex Laferriere, who has notched three goals and one assist, and Adrian Kempe, whose offensive contributions are becoming increasingly crucial. The Kings will rely on these key players to break through Anaheim’s defensive structure.
Anaheim Ducks (2-1-1) The Ducks have had a promising start to the season, despite falling to the Colorado Avalanche in overtime during their last outing. Over the past ten games, Anaheim has been defensively sound, allowing just 1.1 goals per game. However, the Ducks’ offense has struggled, averaging only 1.1 goals per game, and their power play has been a major area of concern, going 0-for-14 on the season.
Key players Troy Terry and Leo Carlsson have been leading the way for Anaheim. Terry has scored three goals this season, while Carlsson has been an essential contributor, particularly with goals in recent matchups. However, the Ducks will need a more balanced effort if they hope to topple the Kings, especially without the services of Isac Lundestrom and Jackson LaCombe, who are sidelined with injuries.
Goaltender Matchup
Los Angeles Kings: David Rittich is expected to be between the pipes for the Kings. Rittich, while not the primary starter, has shown flashes of brilliance in net. His ability to manage high-pressure situations will be tested against a Ducks offense looking to find its footing.
Anaheim Ducks: Lukas Dostal has been Anaheim’s standout goaltender so far, particularly in their last game against Colorado. His strong play in net was the reason Anaheim managed to extend the game into overtime despite being heavily outshot. Dostal will need to be sharp again to stifle a Kings team that’s beginning to regain its offensive stride.
Key Betting Metrics
To make an informed prediction, it’s critical to evaluate top NHL prediction models. Here, we’ll examine the forecasts from five of the most successful NHL models, including BetQL and SportsLine, while also comparing them to our own predictions, which incorporate advanced analytics like the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule.
Top 5 NHL Prediction Models:
- BetQL: Known for its user-friendly interface and sophisticated algorithms, BetQL’s model predicts a final score of 3.2-2.1 in favor of the Kings, recommending the Kings on the moneyline and the under for the total goals.
- SportsLine: This model also favors the Kings, projecting a 3.5-2.0 victory for Los Angeles. SportsLine suggests taking the Kings on the moneyline and the under on total goals.
- MoneyPuck: A data-driven model, MoneyPuck is slightly more conservative, predicting a 3-2 Kings win. It recommends taking the Ducks on the spread (+1.5) but favors the Kings on the moneyline.
- Action Network: This model forecasts a closer game, with the Kings winning 2.8-2.4. It advises bettors to take the Ducks on the spread (+1.5) and consider the under on total goals.
- Dimers: Dimers’ model predicts a 3-2 Kings win, leaning toward the under for total goals and suggesting that the Ducks might cover the spread.
The Math: Pythagorean Theorem & Strength of Schedule
Incorporating the Pythagorean theorem to assess expected win-loss records based on goals scored and goals allowed, the Kings slightly underperform their expected record. With 1.7 goals scored and 1.8 allowed per game, their current record of 2-1-2 is consistent with this analysis. The Ducks, on the other hand, are allowing only 1.1 goals per game while scoring 1.1, indicating that their defensive structure is stronger than their offensive performance suggests.
Additionally, the strength of schedule favors the Kings. Anaheim’s opponents thus far have had weaker overall records compared to Los Angeles’. This gives the Kings an edge in terms of experience against stronger competition.
Player Injuries & Trends
The Kings enter the game with no significant injuries, which bolsters their chances, as they have a fully healthy roster. The Ducks, however, will be without key contributors Isac Lundestrom (C) and Jackson LaCombe (D), both of whom would have been valuable in slowing down the Kings’ attack.
Recent trends also favor the Kings, as they’re coming off a morale-boosting win against Montreal, whereas Anaheim is still searching for offensive consistency, particularly on the power play.
Prediction: The Best Pick
After considering the predictions from the top models, the Pythagorean theorem, strength of schedule, injuries, and trends, the consensus leans toward a Kings victory. The average score from the models suggests a 3-2 win for Los Angeles. My own prediction, using a combination of metrics and situational factors, aligns with the models, as I project a 3-1 Kings victory.
Given the combined analysis:
- Moneyline: Take the Los Angeles Kings at -181.
- Spread: The Ducks could cover the +1.5 spread due to their solid defense, but the Kings’ firepower should be enough to secure the win.
- Total Goals: The under (6) is the safest bet, as both teams have been involved in low-scoring games recently.
With the Kings gaining momentum and the Ducks still struggling on the offensive end, Los Angeles should come out on top in this divisional matchup.
