Date: Thursday, October 17, 2024
Time: 5:08 PM ET
Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
As the American League Championship Series heats up, fans are gearing up for an electrifying Game 3 between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians. With the Yankees leading the series 2-0, the Guardians want to make a statement at home, and you can feel the tension in the air.
Will Cleveland rise to the occasion, or will New York continue its dominance? Let’s explore what’s at stake and what fans can expect from this thrilling matchup.
Current Form: Yankees and Guardians
New York Yankees
The Yankees come into this game riding a wave of confidence after two solid victories against Cleveland. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, showcasing a blend of power and discipline at the plate. They’ve managed to score a total of 11 runs in the first two games, capitalizing on Cleveland’s defensive lapses.
Key Statistics:
- Batting Average: .265
- Home Runs: 232 (2nd in MLB)
- Runs Scored: 859 (3rd in MLB)
The Yankees’ lineup is not just about hitting home runs; they also excel at getting on base. Their ability to manufacture runs has been crucial, especially in high-pressure situations.
Cleveland Guardians
On the flip side, the Guardians have struggled to find their rhythm. With only five runs scored across two games, they’ve faced offensive and defensive challenges. Their batting average has dipped to .220 in this series, and they’ve left numerous runners stranded on base.
Key Statistics:
- Batting Average: .250
- Home Runs: 156 (17th in MLB)
- Runs Scored: 715 (17th in MLB)
Cleveland’s strength lies in its speed and ability to create chaos on the bases, but it needs to capitalize on scoring opportunities to turn this series around.
Notable Injuries
Injuries can significantly impact a team’s performance, especially during crucial playoff games.
Yankees’ Injuries
- DJ LeMahieu: On the 10-day injured list (hip).
While LeMahieu’s absence is felt, the Yankees have depth in their lineup that allows them to cope effectively.
Guardians’ Injuries
- Sam Hentges: On the 60-day injured list (shoulder).
- Shane Bieber: On the 60-day injured list (elbow).
The Guardians are missing key pitchers like Bieber, which could affect their bullpen depth as the series progresses.
Why Expect Over 7.5 Total Runs?
Based on insights from various predictive models, including Dimers and SportsLine, there’s a strong case for expecting more than 7.5 total runs in this game. Here’s a look at what these models predict:
- Dimers: Projects an average score of approximately 7.6 combined runs.
- SportsLine: Also leans towards an over prediction with a projected score of around 7.5 runs.
- BetQL: Indicates that both teams have shown tendencies to hit overs more frequently than unders.
- ESPN’s Model: Suggests that with both teams’ offensive capabilities, hitting over is likely.
- Other Models: Simulations consistently show that both teams could combine for at least eight runs given their recent performances.
Pythagorean Theorem Analysis
Using the Pythagorean theorem for win predictions based on runs scored and allowed:
For example:
- If we consider the Yankees’ runs scored (859) and allowed (703), their expected win percentage would be calculated as follows:
This suggests that while both teams have strong offensive capabilities, the Yankees have a notable edge based on their overall scoring efficiency.
Matchup Analysis
Starting Pitchers
- Clarke Schmidt (Yankees):
- Record: 5-5
- ERA: 2.85
- Strikeouts: 93 in 85.1 innings
- Schmidt has shown promise with his ability to limit hard contact but will face a disciplined Guardians lineup.
- Matthew Boyd (Guardians):
- Record: 2-2
- ERA: 2.72
- Strikeouts: 46 in 39.2 innings
- Boyd has been effective but must manage contact against a power-heavy lineup like New York’s.
Offensive and Defensive Capabilities
The Yankees boast one of the most potent offenses in baseball, ranking third overall and second in home runs. Their ability to hit for power combined with a disciplined approach makes them a formidable opponent.
The Guardians rely more on speed and situational hitting but need to improve their execution with runners in scoring positions if they want to compete effectively.
Final Prediction
As we gear up for Game 3, it’s clear that both teams have strengths and weaknesses that will play a critical role in determining the outcome. The Yankees have momentum, while the Guardians are desperate for a win at home.
Given all these factors—recent performances, starting pitchers, injuries, and statistical analyses—expecting over 7.5 total runs makes sense. The combination of New York’s offensive firepower and Cleveland’s potential for breakout moments leads us to anticipate an exciting game filled with scoring opportunities.
In conclusion, fans should be ready for an exhilarating matchup as both teams vie for supremacy in this pivotal ALCS game. With strong predictions leaning toward an over on total runs and both lineups capable of delivering explosive performances, this game promises excitement from start to finish. Buckle up; it’s going to be a thrilling ride!
PICK: over 7.5 total runs WIN
