Date: Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Time: 8:08 PM ET
Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
As the National League Championship Series heats up, the stakes couldn’t be higher for the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets. With the series tied at one game apiece, both teams are eager to seize the momentum in this pivotal Game 3 at Citi Field. Fans are buzzing with anticipation, knowing that every pitch could tip the balance in this high-stakes matchup.
Who will rise to the occasion? Let’s dive into what makes this game so compelling.
Current Form: Dodgers and Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers enter this game with a regular-season record of 98-64, showcasing their consistent dominance throughout the year. Recently, they’ve been on a roll, boasting a 7-3 record in their last ten games. Offensively, they’ve averaged an impressive 6.2 runs per game, powered by stars like Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández, who have been lighting up the scoreboard.
However, despite their strong offensive output, they faced a tough loss in Game 1 of this series, falling to the Mets 9-0. They bounced back in Game 2 but still showed vulnerabilities, particularly in their pitching staff. Walker Buehler, who takes the mound for Game 3, has struggled with a 5.38 ERA this postseason and is looking to regain his form.
New York Mets
On the other side, the Mets have fought hard to get to this point with a record of 89-73. They’ve shown resilience, especially after being 11 games below .500 earlier in the season. In their last ten games, they’re also 6-4, averaging 4.5 runs per game. Key players like Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos have stepped up significantly; Vientos’ grand slam in Game 2 was a highlight that energized the team.
Luis Severino is set to start for New York. Although he has had a solid season overall with an ERA of 3.91, he hasn’t been at his best lately, which raises questions about how he’ll perform against a potent Dodgers lineup.
Key Statistics and Notable Injuries
Statistical Overview
- Dodgers:
- Runs Scored: 859
- Runs Allowed: 692
- Recent Performance: Averaging 6.2 runs per game over their last ten.
- Mets:
- Runs Scored: 795
- Runs Allowed: 693
- Recent Performance: Averaging 4.5 runs per game over their last ten.
Injury Report
Injuries can dramatically affect a team’s performance:
- Mets:
- Paul Blackburn (IL), Christian Scott (IL), Sean Reid-Foley (IL), Drew Smith (IL), Brooks Raley (IL), Ronny Mauricio (IL) are all out.
- Dodgers:
- Miguel Rojas and Alex Vesia are day-to-day but expected to play.
While both teams have key players nursing injuries, the Dodgers seem to be managing their situation better overall.
Pythagorean Theorem Analysis
Using the Pythagorean theorem for win predictions based on runs scored and allowed:
This analysis suggests that while both teams have performed well, the Dodgers hold a slight edge based on their overall scoring capabilities.
Matchup Analysis: Pitching and Offense
Starting Pitchers
- Luis Severino (Mets):
- Record: 11-7
- ERA: 3.91
Severino has shown flashes of brilliance but has struggled with consistency during crucial moments.
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers):
- Record: 1-6
- ERA: 5.38
Buehler needs to find his rhythm quickly; otherwise, he risks putting his team in a tight spot early on.
Offensive Capabilities
Both teams possess explosive offensive lineups capable of putting up big numbers:
- The Dodgers rank third in the NL with a collective batting average of .258.
- The Mets have shown resilience at home and possess players like Pete Alonso who can change the game with one swing.
Why Pick Over 7.5 Total Runs?
The total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, and several predictive models support taking the over:
- Model Predictions:
- BetQL: Dodgers 4.5 – Mets 3.5
- ESPN: Dodgers 5 – Mets 4
- SportsLine: Dodgers 4 – Mets 3
- OddsTrader Model: Dodgers 4.2 – Mets 3.8
- NBC Sports Prediction: Mets 6 – Dodgers 5
These models collectively suggest that we can expect around 8 runs or more based on recent performances from both teams.
Recent Trends
The trend of high-scoring games continues as both teams have consistently hit the over recently:
- The Dodgers have gone over in seven of their last ten games.
- The Mets have also hit the over frequently in their recent matchups.
With both lineups capable of explosive scoring and starting pitchers who have shown vulnerability, it’s reasonable to expect that this game will surpass the total of 7.5 runs.
Final Prediction
As we approach Game 3 of this thrilling NLCS matchup, everything points toward an exciting contest filled with drama and high stakes. Given both teams’ offensive capabilities and recent trends favoring high-scoring games, predicting an outcome where runs flow freely seems likely.
In conclusion, expect a close contest where both teams battle fiercely for supremacy in this pivotal series game.
My final prediction leans toward: Dodgers: 4 – Mets: 5
With this scoreline exceeding the total of 7.5 runs, it’s clear that both offenses are poised to make their mark on this game.
As fans gear up for what promises to be an electrifying evening of baseball at Citi Field, keep your eyes peeled for standout performances from key players on both sides—this is a game you won’t want to miss!
PICK: over 7.5 total runs WIN
