Red River Rivalry: Texas vs Oklahoma – A Clash of Titans

Date: Saturday, October 12, 2024

Time: 3:30 PM ET

Arena: Cotton Bowl Dallas, TX

Get ready for one of college football’s most electrifying matchups! The No. 1 Texas Longhorns are set to face off against the No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners in the 120th edition of the Red River Rivalry. This Saturday at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, we’re in for a treat as these two powerhouses collide in what promises to be an unforgettable SEC showdown.

The atmosphere at the Cotton Bowl will be electric, with the crowd split 50-50 right down the 50-yard line. It‘s a unique setting that adds an extra layer of intensity to this already fierce rivalry. As Texas enters as a 15.5-point favorite, we‘re left wondering: Can the Sooners pull off an upset, or will the Longhorns continue their dominant run?

Texas Longhorns: Riding High

The Longhorns have been on a tear this season, boasting a perfect 5-0 record and claiming the top spot in the AP Poll. Their offense has been nothing short of spectacular, averaging 45 points per game. But it’s their defense that‘s truly turning heads, allowing a mere 7 points per game – good for second in the nation.

The big news for Texas is the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers. After missing two games with an abdominal injury, Ewers is set to reclaim his starting role. His presence could be the X-factor that pushes the Longhorns over the top.

Oklahoma Sooners: The Underdog with Bite

Don’t let their underdog status fool you – the Sooners are no pushovers. With a 4-1 record, Oklahoma has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly on defense. They‘ve forced 13 turnovers this season, ranking them among the top in the nation in that category.

The Sooners’ offense, however, has been a bit of a question mark. Freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is set to make just his second start, stepping in for the struggling Jackson Arnold. While Hawkins showed promise in the win against Auburn, facing the Longhorns’ stifling defense will be his toughest test yet.

Key Matchups to Watch

Texas Offense vs Oklahoma Defense

The Longhorns’ high-powered offense will face its stiffest challenge of the season against Oklahoma‘s opportunistic defense. Keep an eye on Texas wide receiver Isaiah Bond, who’s been a big-play threat all year, going up against the Sooners‘ secondary.

Oklahoma’s Ground Game vs Texas Front Seven

With a freshman quarterback at the helm, Oklahoma may lean heavily on their running game. The battle in the trenches between the Sooners’ offensive line and Texas’ formidable front seven could be the key to the game.

Model Predictions

Let’s take a look at what five top NCAA football prediction models are saying about this matchup:

1. ESPN FPI: Texas 32, Oklahoma 18
2. BetQL: Texas 31, Oklahoma 20
3. SportsLine AI: Texas 32, Oklahoma 18
4. Dimers AI: Texas 32, Oklahoma 18
5. Action Network PRO: Texas 30, Oklahoma 17

The consensus seems clear – the models are favoring Texas to win, but not necessarily to cover the 15.5-point spread.

Why Oklahoma +15.5 Might Be the Smart Play

While the Longhorns are undoubtedly the stronger team on paper, there are several factors that suggest Oklahoma could keep this game closer than the spread indicates:

1. Rivalry Factor: The Red River Rivalry has a history of close games. In fact, 8 of the last 10 matchups have been decided by single digits.
2. Oklahoma’s Defense: The Sooners’ ability to force turnovers could be a game-changer, potentially leading to short fields and easy scores.
3. Texas’ Rust Factor: Quinn Ewers is returning from injury. While talented, he may need time to shake off the rust, which could keep the game close early on.
4. Pressure on Texas: As the No. 1 team in the nation, Texas has a target on its back. This added pressure could lead to uncharacteristic mistakes.
5. Historical Trends: Oklahoma has been 17-8 against Texas since 2000, showing that they often rise to the occasion in this rivalry.

The Final Word

While Texas is the clear favorite, the smart money might be on Oklahoma to keep things interesting. The combination of rivalry intensity, Oklahoma’s opportunistic defense, and the potential for Texas to feel the pressure of their top ranking all point to a closer game than the spread suggests.

So, if you’re looking for a prediction, here it is: Oklahoma has a good shot at covering the 15.5-point spread. Expect a hard-fought battle that comes down to the wire, with Texas potentially pulling away late for a 31-24 victory.

PICK: Oklahoma covering the 15.5-point spread LOSE