The Army West Point Black Knights (4-0) are set to face off against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-3) in an intriguing American Athletic Conference matchup on Saturday, October 5, 2024, at H.A. Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma. This game pits the Army’s undefeated record and potent triple-option offense against a Tulsa team looking to bounce back from recent struggles.
The matchup presents an interesting contrast in styles, with Army’s methodical, clock-controlling offense going up against Tulsa’s more balanced attack. While the Black Knights have been stingy on defense, allowing just 10.5 points per game, Tulsa’s defense has struggled, giving up 34.6 points per contest.
As the Army enters as a 13-point favorite, they’ll look to continue their perfect start to the season, while Tulsa hopes to defend their home turf and pull off an upset.
Model Predictions
BetQL Model: Army 28, Tulsa 17
ESPN FPI: Army 65.2% win probability
SportsLine Model: Army 31, Tulsa 20
Action Network PRO Model: Army 29, Tulsa 18
Averaging these models yields a prediction of:
- Army 29.5
- Tulsa 18.3
Using the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule:
Army’s Pythagorean win expectation: 0.735
Tulsa’s Pythagorean win expectation: 0.412
Strength of Schedule adjustment:
Army: +1.5 points
Tulsa: -0.5 points
Considering all these factors:
- Army 30
- Tulsa 19
Key Factors
- Army’s triple-option offense has been highly effective, averaging 34.5 points per game.
- Tulsa’s defense has struggled, allowing 30.8 points per game.
- Army’s strong run game matches up well against Tulsa’s weak run defense.
- Injuries to key Army players (Anderson Britton, Tyrell Robinson, Zach Mundell) could impact their offensive production.
- Army’s undefeated record (4-0) vs Tulsa’s losing record (2-3) suggests a significant talent gap.
Pick: Take the Tulsa Golden Hurricane +13 points. ***LOSE***
