NFL Week 5 Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

On October 3, 2024, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) face off against the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) in a pivotal NFC South matchup. The game features a classic home favorite and road underdog setup, with Atlanta as slight favorites with a -125 moneyline, while Tampa Bay holds a +105 underdog status. The spread is set at 1.5 points, and the total points for this game are projected at 43.5.

In this blog post, we’ll analyze the game using a blend of advanced NFL prediction models and my own statistical methodology, which factors in the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule. Additionally, we’ll consider key player injuries, recent trends, and each team’s performance over the first four weeks of the season. Afterward, I’ll compare the top prediction models to arrive at the best betting pick for this game.

Top 5 Successful NFL Prediction Models

1. BetQL: A popular prediction model, BetQL uses advanced algorithms based on team performance, offensive and defensive efficiency, and betting trends. Their model predicts score spreads, moneyline picks, and over/under outcomes with a consistent win rate.
2. SportsLine: SportsLine’s prediction model incorporates expert picks alongside computer simulations run thousands of times. It accounts for player matchups, home-field advantages, and statistical outliers to provide betting recommendations.
3. FiveThirtyEight: FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo model is a widely recognized tool that uses historical team data and accounts for quarterback performance, offensive and defensive efficiency, and team strength.
4. The Action Network: This model leverages data from betting markets, sharp action, and public sentiment while also analyzing recent form and injury impact to provide expert betting insights.
5. PFF (Pro Football Focus): PFF’s model is unique as it grades individual players’ performances. It uses this data to make predictions that reflect how key player matchups are likely to play out.

BetQL and SportsLine Average Predictions

BetQL

• Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21
• Moneyline: Leaning slightly toward Atlanta (-125)
• Spread: Atlanta to cover the -1.5 spread
• Total: Under 43.5 points

SportsLine

• Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
• Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons (-125)
• Spread: Atlanta to cover the spread (-1.5)
• Total: Under 43.5 points

Average Prediction:

• Final Score: Atlanta Falcons 23.5, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20.5
• Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons (-125)
• Spread: Falcons to cover the spread (-1.5)
• Total: Under 43.5 points

My Prediction Using the Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule

Pythagorean Expectation

The Pythagorean theorem is a useful tool for predicting team success based on points scored and allowed. Both teams have seen contrasting starts, with Tampa Bay overperforming and Atlanta underperforming slightly. Based on each team’s points for and points against, we can calculate a win expectancy.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 87 points for, 68 points against
  • Pythagorean expectation: (872)/(872+682)(87²) / (87² + 68²)(872)/(872+682) ≈ 0.619
  • This translates to an expected win percentage of about 61.9%, suggesting their 3-1 record is legitimate.
• Atlanta Falcons: 75 points for, 85 points against
  • Pythagorean expectation: (752)/(752+852)(75²) / (75² + 85²)(752)/(752+852) ≈ 0.437
  • This suggests the Falcons are playing below expectation and are slightly worse than their 2-2 record indicates.

Strength of Schedule (SoS)

While Tampa Bay has a stronger record, it’s important to consider their schedule. So far, they’ve faced weaker defenses, which may inflate their offensive success. On the flip side, Atlanta’s tougher schedule against high-caliber offenses may explain their underperformance.

• Tampa Bay’s SoS rank: 24th (easy)
• Atlanta’s SoS rank: 12th (moderate)

Tampa Bay has benefited from a relatively easy schedule, making their 3-1 start somewhat less impressive. Meanwhile, Atlanta has faced stiffer competition, suggesting they may be stronger than their record shows.

Injuries and Trends Impacting the Game

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Key Injuries

• Antoine Winfield Jr. (SAF): Out, which weakens their secondary.
• Luke Goedeke (OT): Questionable, impacting pass protection.
• Trey Palmer (WR) & Jalen McMillan (WR): Questionable, potentially reducing their receiving depth.
• Calijah Kancey (DT): Questionable, weakening their run defense.

With these injuries, Tampa Bay’s defense could struggle, particularly against a run-heavy Atlanta offense. The secondary and front-line injuries are especially concerning when defending against play-action passes and power running plays.

Atlanta Falcons Key Injuries

• Troy Andersen (LB): Out, which may hurt their ability to contain the Buccaneers’ run game.
• Jase McClellan (RB): Questionable, but Atlanta’s deep backfield can absorb the loss.

Atlanta’s injury list is shorter, but Andersen’s absence could be felt in run defense, especially when facing Tampa Bay’s physical running backs.

Trends

• Tampa Bay: Coming off a strong 3-1 start, their offense has been efficient, but their success has come against below-average defenses. The absence of Winfield could hurt them against Atlanta’s power running game.
• Atlanta: While their record is less impressive, they’ve faced stiffer competition, and their strong rushing attack (4th in the NFL) could exploit Tampa Bay’s defensive injuries.

Final Prediction and Best Pick

Considering the average prediction models, my own Pythagorean theorem analysis, and the injury and strength-of-schedule factors, the best possible pick would be:

• Final Score: Atlanta Falcons 24, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21
• Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons (-125)
• Spread: Atlanta to cover the -1.5 spread
• Total: Under 43.5 points

PICK: Falcons -1.5 (WIN)