The NCAA football season is heating up, and all eyes will be on Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama, as the Oklahoma Sooners travel to face the Auburn Tigers on September 28, 2024. This matchup presents an intriguing battle between the 3-1 Sooners and the 2-2 Tigers, with both teams aiming to assert dominance in their respective conferences. Given the narrow spread of 1.5 points favoring the Tigers and a total of 44.5, it’s shaping up to be a tightly contested game.
We’ll evaluate the top NCAA football prediction models, including those from BetQL and SportsLine, and compare their results with our custom prediction, which takes into account the Pythagorean theorem, strength of schedule, key player injuries, and current trends. By combining these insights, we’ll generate an average final score, a moneyline result, and a spread result prediction to find the best possible pick for this game.
Top 5 NCAA Football Prediction Models:
- ESPN Football Power Index (FPI):
- A data-driven model that evaluates team strength by simulating every game based on a variety of factors, including offensive and defensive efficiency.
- TeamRankings:
- Offers highly detailed predictive analytics based on offensive/defensive stats, trends, and other factors. They provide game-by-game predictions, covering both spreads and over/under totals.
- Action Network Power Ratings:
- This model focuses on power ratings combined with sharp betting insights and trends. It’s known for adjusting based on key injuries and team performance throughout the season.
- NumberFire:
- NumberFire uses machine learning to predict the outcomes of games. Their model takes into account advanced stats like success rate, yards per play, and expected points.
- Oddsshark Consensus:
- Oddsshark collects public betting data and sharp money insights, adjusting their projections to reflect consensus opinions from experts and bettors alike.
BetQL and SportsLine Model Predictions:
BetQL Prediction:
- Final Score Prediction: Auburn 24, Oklahoma 21
- Moneyline: Auburn (-120)
- Spread: Auburn covers the 1.5-point spread
- Total Points: Under 44.5
- BetQL highlights Auburn’s home-field advantage and recent momentum as critical factors in the game’s outcome. Auburn’s defense, despite key injuries, has been strong in high-pressure situations. BetQL expects a lower-scoring affair, with Auburn controlling the tempo.
SportsLine Prediction:
- Final Score Prediction: Auburn 27, Oklahoma 23
- Moneyline: Auburn (-120)
- Spread: Auburn covers the 1.5-point spread
- Total Points: Over 44.5
- SportsLine’s model suggests that Oklahoma’s key injuries, particularly at wide receiver (Deion Burks, Andrel Anthony, and Jalil Farooq), will hinder their offensive output. Meanwhile, Auburn’s balanced attack could exploit Oklahoma’s secondary weaknesses.
My Custom Prediction Using Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule:
Pythagorean Theorem Analysis:
The Pythagorean theorem is an advanced statistical method used to predict expected win totals based on points scored and points allowed. By applying this method to both teams:
- Oklahoma Sooners: Points scored (116) vs. Points allowed (96) = Expected winning percentage: 0.590
- Auburn Tigers: Points scored (146) vs. Points allowed (124) = Expected winning percentage: 0.580
Both teams are nearly identical in their expected win percentages, meaning this matchup could swing either way. However, Oklahoma’s slightly better defensive efficiency might give them a slight edge on paper.
Strength of Schedule (SOS):
- Oklahoma Sooners: Oklahoma has faced tougher competition overall, with wins against Texas Tech and Cincinnati. Their only loss came in a closely contested game against Kansas State, a top-tier team. Their SOS is higher, indicating they are more battle-tested.
- Auburn Tigers: Auburn’s schedule has been somewhat softer, with a 2-2 record against middle-tier teams. Their losses to Texas A&M and Georgia suggest that they’ve struggled against tougher opponents.
Key Player Injuries:
Oklahoma’s injury list is extensive, with multiple wide receivers (Deion Burks, Andrel Anthony, and Jalil Farooq) out, as well as defensive back Gentry Williams. This severely limits their passing game, forcing them to rely heavily on their run game.
On Auburn’s side, the absence of kicker Alex McPherson and running back Brian Battie will also impact their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. However, Auburn’s defensive core remains relatively intact, which could be a deciding factor.
Recent Performance Trends:
- Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners’ defense has been solid, allowing only 96 points across four games. Offensively, they’ve been less consistent, especially in the absence of their top wide receivers.
- Auburn Tigers: Auburn has been inconsistent, putting up big numbers in wins but struggling against tougher teams. Their defense has been porous at times, but their offensive line has excelled in creating running lanes.
Combining Model Predictions:
By averaging the predictions from the top models (BetQL, SportsLine, and others) and factoring in my own analysis, the consensus for the game is:
- Average Final Score: Auburn 24.5, Oklahoma 22
- Moneyline: Auburn (-120)
- Spread: Auburn to cover (-1.5)
- Total Points: Under 44.5
