Alright, let’s get hyped for NFL Week 3 and NCAAF Week 4! This is the weekend 6 pack. Each Friday afternoon/evening I will be posting 3 NCAA plays and 3 NFL plays through the regular season. We’re talking big plays, bold predictions, and some bets that could hit harder than a linebacker on a red dog blitz. So, grab your drink, sit back, and let’s break down these games with stats, trends, our trusty AI prediction/simulation tool from ATSwins of course, and maybe a little football magic from the gambling gods.
1. LSU/UCLA Under 56.5
Breakdown:
LSU vs. UCLA in Week 4? You better believe I’m taking the under on 56.5 points, like you hit snooze on a Monday. LSU’s defense, led by Brian Kelly, has been locked down tighter than airport security.
UCLA’s offense, under Chip Kelly, was once known for high-flying antics, but it’s looking more like a Fourth of July sparkler these days. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson now in the NFL, UCLA is relying on inexperienced QB Ethan Garbers. He hasn’t faced a defense like LSU yet. Between LSU’s stingy defense and the growing pains of UCLA’s new QB, I don’t see this game turning into a shootout. Points will be at a premium, and the under is a smart call.
2. Mississippi State +6
Breakdown:
Mississippi State is walking into a classic SEC showdown, and even under new head coach Zach Arnett, these Bulldogs are all about that grit. On defense, Mississippi State is about as tough as a hangover after dollar beer night. They ranked third in the SEC in rush defense last year. Florida’s flashy, sure, but they are running a 2 quarterback offense and neither one is what I would consider to be a true quality SEC type quarterback. Consistency isn’t their strong suit—they’ve dropped two games to better teams. Their passing attack still has more question marks than answers. Mississippi State at +6 home dog is a value play, especially in what should be a close game. The Bulldogs should bounce back after being hammered by Toledo last week. Look for them to keep this one close into the 4th quarter.
3. Toledo -2.5
Breakdown:
The Toledo Rockets are -2.5 favorites, and they’re ready to light it up like Elon Musk launching another rocket (pun intended). Tucker Gleason is leading an explosive offense that averaged 31 points per game last season. Toledo’s offense moves the ball quickly, with no hesitation, and this Western Kentucky defense isn’t built to handle it. Western Kentucky? They’ve given up nearly 170 rushing yards per game so far this season. That D has more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese. Expect Toledo to control the game on the ground and wear out that defense, which has been as sturdy as your gym shorts after leg day. Toledo covers this -2.5 with ease.
4. Chargers Moneyline
Breakdown:
Chargers vs. Steelers in Week 3? This one’s all about the Bolts, baby. Justin Herbert has been slinging it like there’s no tomorrow, averaging over 300 passing yards per game so far this season. The man is surgical with the football, and when he’s not on the field, you feel it. Plus, Joey Bosa had a hip issue but he is good to go for Sunday. He is leading a defense that has been getting better each week—they’re starting to look like they actually want to hit and tackle people.
On the Steelers’ side? They’ve been struggling to find consistent QB play with Justin Fields. Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging a mediocre 16 points per game, so don’t expect them to keep up with LA’s firepower. Chargers on the moneyline all day long.
5. Buccaneers -6.5
Breakdown:
Tampa Bay’s rolling into Week 3 with an undefeated record, and they’re looking smooth doing it. Baker Mayfield is out here managing the game like a seasoned NFL vet—no stupid mistakes or reckless throws, just smart football. Mike Evans has been torching defenses, already racking up 237 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Tampa’s offense may not be as flashy as some, but it’s effective they get the job done..
As for the Broncos? They’re a mess. Winless, and rookie QB Bo Nix still looks like a deer in headlights. Denver’s offense is flat-out struggling to move the chains, and their defense? They’re allowing 25 points per game. It’s hard to see them keeping up with a Tampa Bay team that’s firing on all cylinders. Bucs -6.5 lock it in.
6. Lions -2.5
Breakdown:
The Detroit Lions are sneakily becoming one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. They were so close to the super bowl last year they could smell it. Jared Goff has been solid, and David Montgomery is grinding out tough yards like it’s his day job—averaging 4.0 yards per carry. This team controls the game like a kid with a new PlayStation. On defense, they’ve been surprisingly effective at limiting big plays and getting pressure up front. After a poor showing at home last week against the Bucs look for Coach Campbell to have the boys ready to bounce back week 3.
The Arizona Cardinals, though? Theyre going to be forced to throw more as they face the fourth best ground defense. The Lions covering -2.5 feels like the easiest bet on the board this week. Sometimes you just shouldn’t overthink it.
BONUS PLAY: Bijan Robinson Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
Breakdown:
You thought we were done? No way here comes a player prop bonus play for you. Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson has quickly become a star. The guy is averaging over 80 rushing yards per game with a breakout performance just waiting to happen. He’s got the perfect balance of power and finesse, making defenders miss like it’s a bad game of tag.
Kansas City’s run defense is about as intimidating as a wet paper towel—they’ve been gashed for 145 rushing yards per game average so far. With the Chiefs focused on getting pressure on multi-million dollar QB and Netflx star, Kirk Cousins, Bijan’s going to have plenty of opportunities and room to break off some chunk play runs. The play here is over 72.5 rushing yards. It almost feels like stealing.
Conclusion:
There you have it, sports fans—these picks are rooted in stats, recent player form, trends, and AI model prediction tools that point to serious value. Whether you’re rolling with underdogs like Mississippi State or banking on stars like Bijan Robinson, this weekend’s matchups are primed for action. So, crack a cold one (or 6), buckle up, and let’s watch those tickets cash this weekend. Stay tuned for next Friday’s addition. Until then I wish you all good luck!.
