Date: Friday, September 19, 2024
Time: 7:15 PM ET
Arena: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
The Cardinals, despite a disappointing overall season, have found their rhythm lately. They’re riding a three-game winning streak and aiming to complete a series sweep against their division rivals. On the other side, the Pirates, though out of playoff contention, are fighting to prove they’re no pushovers.
Pirates’ Perspective
Pittsburgh enters this matchup with a chip on its shoulder. They’ve dropped the first three games of this series and are desperate to salvage some pride. The Pirates’ offense has sputtered recently, averaging just 3.3 runs per game over their last ten outings. However, they’ve shown flashes of brilliance, particularly when Bryan Reynolds gets hot at the plate.
Luis Ortiz takes the mound for the Bucs, sporting a respectable 3.45 ERA. His road splits are particularly impressive, with a 2.84 ERA away from PNC Park. If Ortiz can navigate the Cardinals’ lineup effectively, he might just give his team the spark they need.
Cardinals’ Charge
St. Louis has been playing inspired baseball as of late. Their young guns, like Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn, are starting to find their groove at the major league level. Walker’s recent three-run double showcased the potential that has Cardinals fans excited for the future.
Erick Fedde gets the nod for the Cards, matching Ortiz with a 3.45 ERA of his own. Fedde’s been a different beast at Busch Stadium, boasting a stellar 1.98 ERA in home starts. This home-field advantage could prove crucial in what’s shaping up to be a pitchers’ duel.
Key Statistics
The Cardinals’ offense has been clicking, averaging 5.3 runs per game during their current homestand. Conversely, the Pirates’ bats have cooled off, managing just 3.7 runs per game in their last seven outings.
Defensively, St. Louis holds a slight edge, ranking 12th in MLB with a .985 fielding percentage, while Pittsburgh sits at 18th with a .983 mark.
Injury Impact
Both teams are relatively healthy heading into this contest. The Pirates are missing outfielder Andrew McCutchen, but they’ve had time to adjust to his absence. The Cardinals are at full strength, giving them a slight advantage in terms of roster depth.
Model Predictions
Let’s take a look at what five successful MLB prediction models are saying about this matchup:
- FiveThirtyEight MLB Predictions Model: Cardinals 4.6, Pirates 3.9
- The Action Network PRO Model: Cardinals 4.8, Pirates 4.1
- Accuscore MLB Simulation Model: Cardinals 4.7, Pirates 3.8
- Dimers.com MLB Probability Model: Cardinals 4.5, Pirates 4.0
- ClutchPoints MLB Prediction Model: Cardinals 4.9, Pirates 4.2
Interestingly, all five models favor the Cardinals to win, with projected scores hovering around the 8-run mark.
The Case for the Under
Despite the models suggesting a close game, there’s a compelling argument for taking the under on the 8-run total. Both starting pitchers have identical 3.45 ERAs, and they’ve been particularly effective in their respective situations (Ortiz on the road, Fedde at home).
Moreover, the Pirates’ recent offensive struggles, combined with the Cardinals’ improved pitching, point towards a low-scoring affair. St. Louis has allowed just 3.7 runs per game over their last ten contests, while Pittsburgh has struggled to generate consistent offense.
Pythagorean Theorem Analysis
Applying the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball to both teams’ season-long run differentials yields interesting results. The Cardinals have slightly overperformed their expected win percentage, while the Pirates have underperformed. This suggests that the Cardinals might be due for some regression, which could manifest in a tighter, lower-scoring game than their recent results indicate.
Matchup Breakdown
When we dig into the pitching matchup, both Ortiz and Fedde profile as ground ball pitchers who limit hard contact.
This plays well in Busch Stadium, which tends to suppress home runs. The Cardinals’ infield defense, anchored by Nolan Arenado, excels at converting ground balls into outs.
Offensively, both teams have been inconsistent. The Pirates struggle against right-handed pitching, which bodes well for Fedde. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have shown improved plate discipline lately but still rank in the bottom third of the league in walks drawn.
The Final Pitch
As the sun sets over the Gateway Arch, we’re in for a classic NL Central battle. The models and statistics point to a Cardinals victory but don’t count out the scrappy Pirates just yet. These division rivals know each other well, and pride is on the line.
Ultimately, the pitching matchup and recent trends suggest a low-scoring affair. Both Ortiz and Fedde have the tools to keep opposing hitters off balance, and the defenses behind them are solid. While the Cardinals’ bats have been hot, they’re facing a pitcher in Ortiz who’s been tough on the road.
Taking all factors into account, the under-8 runs look like the smart play here. We’re likely to see a tightly contested game where runs come at a premium. Don’t be surprised if we witness a 3-2 or 4-3 final score, with stellar pitching and defense taking center stage.
This Thursday night showdown at Busch Stadium promises to be a chess match on the diamond, where every run will be crucial. In baseball, as in life, sometimes less is more – and in this case, less scoring might lead to more excitement for the fans.
PICK: under 8 total runs
