The Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park in what promises to be an exciting clash. The Dodgers, leading their division, face a Braves team fighting for a wildcard spot. Both teams have much at stake, making this matchup a compelling event for fans and bettors alike.
Here’s an in-depth breakdown of the game, leveraging predictions from five successful MLB models to guide your picks and bets.
Overview of the Teams
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been a powerhouse throughout the season but have shown signs of inconsistency in recent weeks. They currently hold a 4.5-game lead in their division, but their recent 1-4 record in their last five games raises some questions. After conceding a staggering 24 runs in a home series against the Cubs, their pitching staff appears vulnerable.
In contrast, the Atlanta Braves are in the heat of the National League wildcard race, currently just one game behind the New York Mets for the final spot. They’ve shown resilience with back-to-back wins against the Dodgers, including a 6-2 and 10-1 rout in the previous two games of this series. Despite a shaky offense, their pitching has been stellar, a key factor heading into the game.
Key Pitching Matchup
For the Dodgers, Walker Buehler will take the mound, and he’s struggled recently. In his last start, Buehler gave up five runs to the Cubs, contributing to the Dodgers’ troubles. Over his last three starts, Buehler has allowed 11 runs and six home runs in just 14.2 innings.
This shaky form makes him a potential liability for the Dodgers.
On the other side, the Braves will turn to veteran right-hander Charlie Morton. Morton has been solid, allowing two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. In his most recent outing, he held the Cincinnati Reds to just one run over 6.2 innings.
Morton’s performance against the Dodgers earlier in the season was strong, as he allowed just two runs in six innings. With his experience and recent form, Morton is expected to give the Braves an edge on the mound.
Predictions from 5 MLB Models
- BetQL Model: This model forecasts a low-scoring game, given the inconsistent form of the Dodgers’ offense and Morton’s ability to stifle opposing hitters. BetQL recommends betting on the under 8.5 total runs, predicting that the game will see around 7-8 runs. Expect both pitchers to limit the damage.
- SportsLine Model: SportsLine predicts a closely contested game, with the Braves edging out the Dodgers by a score of Braves 4, Dodgers 3. The model cites the Braves’ recent surge in form and Morton’s reliability at home. The close nature of the game leads SportsLine to recommend betting on the Braves for the moneyline at -110, suggesting a narrow victory.
- Action Network Model: Focusing heavily on the pitching matchup, this model sees Morton continuing his strong form against the Dodgers, while Buehler’s struggles will be exploited. Action Network projects a final score of Braves 5, Dodgers 3, further reinforcing the idea that Morton will be the key to Atlanta’s success. Their recommendation is to bet on the Braves’ moneyline as well.
- FiveThirtyEight Model: Using their Elo rating system, FiveThirtyEight also leans toward the Braves due to their superior form at home and the Dodgers’ inconsistency. They predict a closer game than some of the other models, estimating a tie at Braves 4, Dodgers 4, with the potential for extra innings or a one-run victory for either team. While FiveThirtyEight remains neutral on the total, they hint at the Braves’ overall momentum giving them the slight advantage.
- Oddshark Model: Oddshark also favors the Braves, highlighting the importance of Morton’s pitching performance and the Dodgers’ recent struggles. They predict a final score of Braves 4, Dodgers 2, emphasizing that runs will be at a premium. Oddshark agrees with the recommendation of betting on the under 8.5 total runs and advises placing a wager on the Braves’ moneyline.
Factors to Consider
Several key factors play into the predictions and betting recommendations for this game:
- Pitching Form: Morton’s recent performances, especially at home, have been impressive, while Buehler has struggled to find his rhythm. Morton’s success against the Dodgers earlier in the year, where he allowed just two runs over six innings, makes him the more reliable starter.
- Injuries: The Braves’ lineup is missing some firepower with Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies both out due to injuries. However, Matt Olson and Ronald Acuña Jr. remain key offensive contributors, and their ability to step up will be crucial.
- Dodgers’ Inconsistency: The Dodgers have a formidable roster, but recent series losses and inconsistent pitching make them a less reliable bet in this matchup.
Betting Recommendations
Based on the predictions from these five models, here’s a summary of the best bets for the game:
- Moneyline: The majority of models favor the Braves. With Morton on the mound and the Braves fighting for a wildcard spot, the Braves at -110 is the recommended pick.
- Total Runs (O/U 8.5): Four of the five models predict a low-scoring game, with Morton and Buehler expected to keep the offense in check. Betting on the under 8.5 total runs is a solid choice, as the final score is likely to hover around 6-8 runs.
The game between the Dodgers and Braves promises to be a tight contest, with pitching expected to play a critical role. While the Dodgers have more offensive firepower, the Braves’ home-field advantage and Morton’s recent form give them the edge.
PICK: Atlanta Braves -110 – LOSE
