Date: Saturday, September 14, 2024
Time: 4:15 p.m. ET
Arena: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
On Saturday, September 14, 2024, the UAB Blazers will face off against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas. This non-conference matchup may not have the same stakes as a rivalry game, but it’s a crucial test for both teams as they look to bounce back from recent setbacks.
For Arkansas, this game is about redemption. After a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to Oklahoma State, the Razorbacks are eager to prove they’re more than just a team that can’t close out games. Meanwhile, UAB is looking to rebound from a dismal 32-6 loss to Louisiana-Monroe, a game that exposed some glaring weaknesses on both sides of the ball.
UAB Blazers
The Blazers come into this game with a 1-1 record, but their recent performance has been anything but inspiring. In their last game, they managed just 6 points against Louisiana-Monroe, a team that’s not exactly known for its defensive prowess. UAB’s offense has been struggling to find its rhythm, and the team’s six turnovers in the first two games are a major concern.
On the bright side, UAB has some talented players who could make a difference in this game. Sophomore wide receiver Amare Thomas is a player to watch, with 47 receptions and 437 yards in his freshman year. Running back Lee Beebe Jr. has also shown promise, with 144 yards and 2 touchdowns so far this season.
However, UAB’s defense has been a liability, particularly against the run. The team has allowed an average of 5.0 yards per carry, which could spell trouble against Arkansas’s potent rushing attack.
Arkansas Razorbacks
The Razorbacks are also 1-1, but their recent performance has been much more encouraging. Despite the loss to Oklahoma State, Arkansas showed flashes of brilliance on offense, with quarterback Taylen Green throwing for 645 yards and running for 149 yards in the first two games. Running back Ja’Quinden Jackson has been a force to be reckoned with, scoring 5 touchdowns and averaging 7.8 yards per carry.
Arkansas’s offense is currently ranked 2nd in the nation, with an average of 667.5 yards per game. The team’s speed and athleticism are a major concern for UAB, particularly in the second half, where Arkansas has a tendency to pull away from its opponents.
However, the Razorbacks’ defense has been a bit of a question mark, particularly against the pass. The team has allowed an average of 245.5 passing yards per game, which could be a problem if UAB’s offense can get going.
Head-to-Head Matchup
When it comes to the matchup between these two teams, it’s clear that Arkansas has the upper hand. The Razorbacks’ offense is simply too potent, and UAB’s defense has shown no signs of being able to stop it.On the other side of the ball, UAB’s offense will face a stiff test against Arkansas’s defense. While the Blazers have some talented players, they’ll need to be at the top of their game to move the ball against the Razorbacks.
Key Factors to Watch
One key factor to watch in this game is the injury report. UAB has been dealing with some injuries on defense, which could make it even harder for the team to stop Arkansas’s offense.
Another factor to consider is the coaching strategies. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman has a reputation for being aggressive on offense, which could lead to some big plays against UAB’s defense. Meanwhile, UAB coach Trent Dilfer will need to find a way to slow down Arkansas’s offense and keep his team in the game.
Prediction
Based on the analysis, it’s clear that Arkansas is the favorite in this game. Here are the predicted scores from five successful NCAA football prediction models:
- Dimers’ Model: Arkansas 41, UAB 16
- The Action Network’s PRO Projections: Arkansas 40, UAB 16
- TeamRankings Predictive Model: Arkansas 42, UAB 18
- FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Ratings: Arkansas 39, UAB 15
- FOX Sports’ Data Skrive Model: Arkansas 38, UAB 16
All five models predict a comfortable Arkansas victory, with the Razorbacks covering the 22.5 point spread. However, the real value in this game may be in the under 61 total points. UAB’s defense has been stingy against the pass, allowing just 73.5 passing yards per game, and Arkansas’s defense has shown signs of improvement against the run.
Given the matchup and the trends, it’s likely that this game will be a low-scoring affair, with Arkansas’s offense being the only real threat to break out. Therefore, the recommended pick is to take the under 61 total points.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the matchup between UAB and Arkansas is a clear mismatch. The Razorbacks’ offense is too potent, and the Blazers’ defense has shown no signs of being able to stop it. While UAB has some talented players, they’ll need to be at the top of their game to move the ball against Arkansas’s defense.
Given the analysis and the predicted scores from the five models, it’s clear that Arkansas is the favorite in this game. However, the real value may be under 61 total points, which is a more likely outcome given the matchup and the trends.
PICK: under 61 total points LOSE
