Friday Night Upset Alert? UNLV’s High-Octane Offense Challenges Kansas’ Big 12 Pedigree

As the sun sets on Friday, September 13, 2024, college football fans are in for a treat as the UNLV Rebels (2-0) travel to Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City to face the Kansas Jayhawks (1-1). This non-conference clash promises to be an exciting rematch of last year’s Guaranteed Rate Bowl, where Kansas emerged victorious in a high-scoring affair.

The stakes are high for both teams. UNLV aims to prove their hot start isn’t a fluke, while Kansas seeks to bounce back after a disappointing loss to Illinois last week. Let’s take a closer look at this intriguing matchup.

The Rebels’ Resurgence

UNLV has stormed out of the gates in 2024, turning heads with their impressive 2-0 start. Their season opener saw them shock Houston on the road with a convincing 27-7 victory. They followed that up by demolishing Utah Tech 72-14, racking up a school-record 694 total yards in the process.The Rebels’ success can be attributed to their high-octane “Go-Go” offense, spearheaded by quarterback Matthew Sluka. The Holy Cross transfer has been a dual-threat nightmare for opponents, accumulating 231 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 140 rushing yards in just two games. His ability to extend plays and make something out of nothing has given UNLV’s offense a new dimension.

Wide receiver Ricky White has emerged as Sluka’s favorite target, hauling in 7 catches for 165 yards and 4 touchdowns so far this season. The chemistry between these two could spell trouble for Kansas’ secondary.On the ground, UNLV has employed a committee approach, with Vincent Davis Jr. and Jai’Den Thomas leading the charge. This one-two punch has kept defenses guessing and opened up opportunities in the passing game.Defensively, the Rebels have been stout, allowing just 10.5 points per game. However, it’s worth noting that they haven’t faced an offense of Kansas’ caliber yet this season.

The Jayhawks Looking to Rebound

Kansas entered the 2024 season with high hopes, ranked 19th in the preseason AP poll. After a convincing win over Missouri State in their opener, the Jayhawks stumbled against Illinois, falling 23-17 on the road.

Despite the loss, there were some bright spots for Kansas. They outgained Illinois 327-271 in total yards and showcased a potent ground game, rushing for 186 yards. Running back Devin Neal continued his impressive form, notching his second consecutive 100-yard rushing game with 101 yards on 14 carries.The biggest concern for Kansas was turnovers. Quarterback Jalon Daniels, a preseason Heisman hopeful, threw three interceptions against Illinois. However, it’s important to note that this performance seems to be an anomaly for the usually reliable Daniels. Prior to that game, he had thrown just 15 interceptions in 589 career pass attempts.

Kansas’ defense, while not dominant, has shown flashes of potential. They’ve been particularly strong against the run, which could pose problems for UNLV’s ground-heavy attack.

Key Matchups to Watch

The battle in the trenches will be crucial. UNLV’s offensive line has been stellar, allowing just one sack in two games. They’ll be tested by a Kansas front seven that has shown the ability to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

In the secondary, Kansas cornerback Cobee Bryant will have his hands full trying to contain UNLV’s Ricky White. This one-on-one matchup could be a game-changer.On the other side of the ball, UNLV’s defense will need to find a way to slow down Devin Neal and the Kansas rushing attack. If they can force the Jayhawks to become one-dimensional, it could play into their hands.

Prediction Models Speak

Let’s take a look at what five prominent college football prediction models are saying about this matchup:

1. ESPN’s Football Power Index: Kansas 34, UNLV 24
2. Jeff Sagarin’s Predictor Model: Kansas 31, UNLV 23
3. FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Ratings: Kansas 33, UNLV 25
4. The Power Rank’s Predictive Model: Kansas 32, UNLV 26
5. TeamRankings Prediction Model: Kansas 35, UNLV 27

Interestingly, while all models predict a Kansas victory, three out of five suggest UNLV will cover the 9.5-point spread.

The Verdict: Take UNLV and the Points

After carefully analyzing both teams and considering the prediction models, I’m leaning towards UNLV covering the 9.5-point spread. Here’s why:

1. UNLV’s offense is clicking on all cylinders. Their ability to mix up the run and pass should keep Kansas’ defense off-balance.
2. The Rebels have momentum on their side. Confidence is high after their 2-0 start, and they’ll be eager to prove themselves against a Power 5 opponent.
3. Kansas’ turnover issues from last week are concerning. If UNLV can force a couple of takeaways, they could keep this game close or even pull off the upset.
4. The prediction models, while favoring Kansas to win, suggest a closer game than the spread indicates.
5. UNLV has the motivation of avenging last year’s bowl game loss to Kansas.

While Kansas is the more talented team on paper, UNLV has shown they’re no pushover. Expect a competitive, high-scoring affair that comes down to the wire. The Rebels may not win outright, but they should keep it within single digits.

Remember, in college football, anything can happen. That’s why we love this game. So grab your popcorn, settle in, and get ready for what promises to be an entertaining Friday night showdown between the Rebels and Jayhawks.