As the Kansas City Royals travel to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates, anticipation builds for an exciting clash on September 13, 2024. With the Royals sitting comfortably in second place in the AL Central and the Pirates looking to capitalize on their recent four-game winning streak, both teams are eager to secure a crucial victory. Key injuries on both sides add an intriguing layer to this matchup, setting the stage for a thrilling contest. Will the Royals maintain their momentum, or will the Pirates continue their ascent at home? Let’s dive into the details of this captivating showdown!
Model Analysis
BetQL Model: Predicts Pirates to win, 4-3
ESPN’s Prediction Model: Favors Pirates, 5-4
SportsLine Model: Projects Pirates victory, 5-3
FiveThirtyEight MLB Predictions: Gives Pirates a 56% win probability
The Action Network Model: Forecasts Pirates to win, 4-3
Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule
Applying the Pythagorean theorem to the teams’ run differential and factoring in the strength of the schedule:
Royals: Expected win percentage of .543
Pirates: Expected win percentage of .472
However, the Pirates’ recent performance and home-field advantage slightly offset this difference.
Key Factors
- Injuries: Both teams are dealing with significant injuries, but the Pirates seem more affected, especially in their pitching staff.
- Recent Form: Pirates have momentum with a 4-game winning streak, while Royals have been inconsistent.
- Pitching Matchup: Alec Marsh (Royals) vs. Luis Ortiz (Pirates) – Both are relatively inexperienced, making this a fairly even matchup.
- Home Field Advantage: Pirates playing at home gives them a slight edge.
Averaging the AI models’ predictions with my analysis, the projected score is:
Pirates 5 – Royals 4
Pick: Take the Pittsburgh Pirates -125 Moneyline. ***LOSE***
