When it comes to NFL betting, Week 1 to Week 2 overreactions are as predictable as the annual hype around your fantasy football team (before it inevitably crashes). After the opening weekend, people scramble to make bold claims about who’s elite and who’s headed for the number one draft pick. Spoiler alert: it’s often too soon to tell.
One big blowout win and suddenly a team like the Saints is being labeled as unstoppable, prompting oddsmakers to inflate spreads as if Week 1 wasn’t just a glorified practice run for some teams. And when the Panthers get destroyed in the opener, everyone writes them off like they haven’t seen a team make a come back before. This is the fun part of NFL betting—capitalizing on those juicy Week 1 overreactions.
Week 1 Overreactions: The Hype Train
After Week 1, it’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking, “What I saw last Sunday is the gospel for the rest of the season.” If a team wins by a wide margin, the public suddenly sees them as Super Bowl favorites, and sportsbooks, seeing this flood of bets, adjust their lines accordingly. Teams like the Saints might win big, and everyone thinks they’re the second coming of the ’85 Bears. Cue the massive spreads in Week 2.
But hold on a second—Week 1 isn’t always an accurate reflection of a team’s actual skill. Maybe a few turnovers went their way, or maybe the other team was just sleepwalking through the game. Football is full of small sample sizes, and betting on early overreactions is like buying into the stock market after one good day—dangerous.
Teams to Watch for Week 2: The Saints, after a big Week 1 win, are likely to have an inflated spread going into Week 2. Be cautious of assuming that one strong performance means consistency.
Week 2 Adjustments: The Bounce Back
Here’s the thing: teams that get embarrassed in Week 1 often make adjustments and come back swinging in Week 2. This is when the overreactions get really interesting. Coaches finally have game film to analyze, and players shake off the offseason rust. Teams that look lost in Week 1 often surprise everyone with a much stronger showing in Week 2, proving that maybe they weren’t as bad as everyone thought.
For instance, if the Panthers got crushed in their opener, it doesn’t mean they’re destined for disaster all season long. Teams use Week 1 as a learning experience, and it’s not uncommon to see them dramatically improve their play the following week. Betting on the bounce-back team in Week 2, especially when they’re up against a team riding high from a big Week 1 win, can pay off.
Teams to Watch for Week 2: The Bengals, Panthers, and Giants all fall into this category for Week 2 in 2024. Each suffered tough losses in Week 1, and historical trends show they could bounce back after making adjustments.
Why Week 1 Results Are So Misleading
There’s a reason why betting on Week 2 based on Week 1 alone can be like driving blindfolded—it’s risky, unpredictable, and probably a terrible idea. First of all, many starters barely play in the preseason, so Week 1 is really their first chance to shake off the offseason cobwebs. In addition, some matchups are just flukes. Teams that lose big might just be one or two adjustments away from winning, while teams that win big might have gotten a few lucky breaks.
Let’s face it, a couple of freak turnovers or a punt return for a touchdown can make a good team look unbeatable—or a bad team look even worse. By Week 2, teams have had time to correct their mistakes, making Week 1 look more like an anomaly than a reliable trend.
Betting Smarter in Week 2: Fading the Overreaction
So, how do you use this to your advantage? The key is to fade the hype and focus on fundamentals. The Saints might have blown out the Panthers, but does that mean their secondary is suddenly invincible, or did they just get lucky with a couple of turnovers? Look beyond the final score—yards per play, third-down conversions, and actual execution tell a more complete story than a lopsided result.
Betting strategies often suggest taking a hard look at the underdogs that were blown out in Week 1. Oddsmakers, reacting to public sentiment, might give them a more favorable line in Week 2. Teams that lose big in the opener are often undervalued, and betting against the Week 1 “juggernauts” who had a few lucky breaks can provide great value.
Teams to Fade in Week 2: The Saints who had impressive Week 1 performances, might see inflated lines heading into Week 2. Betting against them could offer some value.
Finding Opportunities
One useful angle is to keep an eye on teams that lost by double digits in Week 1. Historically, these teams tend to cover the spread more often in Week 2. Whether it’s through motivation, coaching adjustments, or just the randomness of football, teams that get embarrassed in Week 1 don’t stay down for long. On the flip side, betting against teams that overperformed can be smart.
And remember, if a team like the Saints won their first game by four touchdowns, oddsmakers will pump up their spread for Week 2, knowing full well the public will jump on the bandwagon. This is your chance to look beyond the public sentiment and make a more calculated bet.
Teams to Consider for Week 2: The Bengals, Panthers, and Giants all suffered big losses in Week 1, but they’re likely to have better performances in Week 2. Betting on their improvement could be smart.
Conclusion
Week 1 to Week 2 overreactions are an annual NFL tradition, almost as common as someone in your fantasy league offering terrible trade deals. Teams are rarely as bad—or as good—as they seem after just one game. By taking advantage of these overreactions, understanding the adjustments teams make, and focusing on the fundamentals rather than the hype, you can find value in Week 2 betting lines.
So, the next time you see a blowout in Week 1, don’t rush to crown a new champ or bury a struggling team
