Thursday, September 12, 2024 at 1:15 p.m. ET, Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri
As the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off in a pivotal National League Central matchup, baseball fans are in for a treat. This Thursday afternoon contest at Busch Stadium promises to be an intriguing battle between two teams looking to make their mark in the division. Let’s dive deep into the statistics, recent performances, and key factors that could influence the outcome of this game.
Top 5 successful MLB prediction models:
• FiveThirtyEight’s MLB Predictions: Cardinals 4.7, Reds 4.1 (Total: 8.8)
• Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Cardinals 4.9, Reds 4.3 (Total: 9.2)
• FanGraphs Projections: Cardinals 4.6, Reds 4.0 (Total: 8.6)• The Action Network’s MLB Model: Cardinals 5.1, Reds 4.2 (Total: 9.3)
• Accuscore MLB Predictions: Cardinals 4.8, Reds 3.9 (Total: 8.7)• Las Vegas Sportsbooks Consensus: Cardinals 4.5, Reds 4.0 (Total: 8.5)
• ESPN’s MLB Power Index: Cardinals 4.9, Reds 4.2 (Total: 9.1)
Averaging these predictions:
Cardinals: 4.79 runs
Reds: 4.10 runs
The Pitching Matchup
On the mound for the Cardinals, we have the veteran right-hander Sonny Gray. At 34 years old, Gray has been a steady presence in the St. Louis rotation this season. With a 12-9 record and a respectable 3.84 ERA over 154.2 innings pitched, Gray has shown he still has plenty left in the tank. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 5.03 is particularly impressive, demonstrating his ability to control the strike zone and keep hitters off balance.
Gray’s recent performances have been encouraging for Cardinals fans. In his last two starts, he’s allowed just two runs over 13 innings while striking out 11 batters and walking only one. This kind of efficiency and control will be crucial against a Reds lineup that can be dangerous when given opportunities.
For the Reds, Jakob Junis takes the hill. While not as established as Gray, Junis has been a pleasant surprise for Cincinnati this season. Sporting a 4-0 record with a stellar 2.82 ERA over 51 innings, Junis has been effective in both starting and relief roles. His 0.92 WHIP is particularly eye-catching, indicating that he’s been keeping runners off the basepaths at an impressive rate.
Junis’ ability to limit baserunners could be a significant factor in this game, especially considering the Cardinals’ struggles with offensive consistency this season. If he can continue his efficient pitching, the Reds could find themselves in a favorable position.
Team Offensive Analysis
The Cardinals’ offense has been a bit of a mixed bag this season. They’re batting .246 as a team, which ranks them 12th in the MLB. While not spectacular, it’s a solid foundation for run production. The emergence of Alec Burleson as a power threat has been a bright spot, with the young outfielder leading the team with 21 home runs and 73 RBIs.
Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado have also been key contributors, both hitting around the .270 mark. The Cardinals have shown flashes of offensive brilliance but have struggled with consistency, which has been a factor in their somewhat disappointing season.
On the other side, the Reds have had their own offensive challenges. Their team batting average of .232 ranks 26th in the league, indicating some struggles at the plate. However, they’ve managed to score 646 runs this season, which is actually more than the Cardinals’ 594. This discrepancy suggests that while the Reds may not hit for a high average, they’re making their hits count.
Elly De La Cruz has been a spark plug for the Reds’ offense, leading the team with 23 home runs and a .260 batting average. Spencer Steer has also been productive, driving in a team-high 86 RBIs. The Reds have shown an ability to score runs in bunches, which could be crucial in a tight game against a pitcher of Gray’s caliber.
Recent Team Performances
The Cardinals have been struggling to find consistency this season. After a strong 2022 campaign that saw them win the NL Central, they’ve taken a step back in 2023. However, they’ve shown signs of life recently, with Paul Goldschmidt heating up in September, hitting .361 for the month. The Reds, on the other hand, have been something of a surprise package this season. Despite their low team batting average, they’ve managed to stay competitive in the NL Central race. Their pitching has been particularly impressive lately, allowing only two runs in their last three games combined.
Analyzing the Run Line
When considering the run line for this game, there are several factors that make the Reds +1.5 an intriguing option. First, the Reds have shown an ability to keep games close, even when facing tough opponents. Their recent pitching performances suggest they have the ability to limit the Cardinals’ offense, which has been inconsistent this season. Additionally, while Sonny Gray has been solid for the Cardinals, he’s struggled against the Reds this season. In two starts against Cincinnati, he’s allowed 12 runs (9 earned) over 9 1/3 innings. This history suggests that the Reds’ hitters may have a good read on Gray’s pitches, which could lead to some offensive production.
The Reds’ ability to score runs, despite their low batting average, is another factor to consider. They’ve shown a knack for timely hitting and manufacturing runs, which could be crucial in a close game. Even if they don’t pull out the win, their offensive capabilities make them a good bet to keep the game within one run. Jakob Junis’ performance will be key for the Reds. If he can continue his efficient pitching and limit baserunners, he could keep the Cardinals’ offense in check and give the Reds a chance to either win outright or keep the game close.
It’s also worth noting that the Reds have performed well as underdogs this season. In their last 10 games as underdogs, they’ve gone 7-3, showing an ability to exceed expectations and compete with favored teams.
Conclusion
As we look forward to this Thursday afternoon matchup at Busch Stadium, we’re set for an intriguing contest between two teams with something to prove. The Cardinals, looking to salvage pride in a disappointing season, will rely on Sonny Gray’s experience and recent good form. The Reds, meanwhile, will count on Jakob Junis to continue his efficient pitching and their offense to produce timely hits.
While the outcome of any baseball game is never certain, the statistics and recent performances suggest that this could be a closely contested affair. The Reds have shown an ability to keep games close and exceed expectations, making them an interesting option for bettors looking at the run line.
