The Seattle Mariners are set to take on the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium, with both teams vying for a crucial win as the regular season winds down. For bettors and MLB enthusiasts, this matchup is particularly intriguing due to the narrow odds and competitive nature of both teams. The Mariners come into the game as slight favorites with a moneyline of -124, while the Cardinals are listed as +105 underdogs. Additionally, the over/under (O/U) for total runs is set at 7.5, which aligns with the close nature of these two squads.
Let’s dive deeper into the predictions from five successful MLB models and assess what this means for those looking to place bets on the game.
Dimers Model: A 50-50 Shot
The Dimers Model, a trusted simulation tool that runs 10,000 iterations to predict game outcomes, projects this game as a true toss-up. Both the Mariners and the Cardinals are given a 50% chance of winning, reflecting the overall parity between the two teams. The strength of Seattle’s pitching, led by Logan Gilbert with a 3.19 ERA, goes up against the Cardinals’ Kyle Gibson, who sports a 4.39 ERA.
One notable insight from Dimers is their strong prediction that the Cardinals have a 64% chance of covering the +1.5 run line. This suggests that while Seattle might have the edge in winning, St. Louis is expected to keep the game within a close margin. Furthermore, Dimers gives a 56% probability that the total runs will exceed the O/U of 7.5, hinting at the likelihood of a higher-scoring affair.
BetQL Model: Slight Mariners Edge
The BetQL Model, which factors in advanced stats such as team performance as favorites and recent form, also gives the Mariners a slight edge. Seattle has performed well as favorites this season, winning 55 of 97 games when given the favored tag. However, the model also notes that Seattle has gone 5-5 in its last 10 games as a favorite, suggesting some volatility in their performance.
BetQL points out that while the Mariners are slight favorites, the Cardinals are no pushovers as underdogs. St. Louis has won 50.7% of games when labeled as underdogs, which makes the +105 moneyline bet an appealing option for risk-tolerant bettors.
SportsLine Model: Betting on the Pitchers
Another model worth considering is the SportsLine Model, which places significant weight on the pitching matchups. Logan Gilbert of the Mariners has been one of the more consistent pitchers this season, with a 7-10 record but an impressive ERA of 3.19. Gilbert’s strikeout ability (9.6 K/9) and the Mariners’ solid bullpen make Seattle the favorite in many simulations. However, the Cardinals have shown resilience when backed by their home crowd, especially with Kyle Gibson, who has been reliable if not spectacular.
SportsLine leans towards the Mariners for the moneyline due to Gilbert’s pitching, but like Dimers, it acknowledges the Cardinals’ strength as a home underdog.
Action Network Model: Expect the Over
The Action Network Model is more focused on recent trends and stats, and it suggests a strong play on the over 7.5 total runs for this game. Seattle’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging 5.7 runs per game over their last 10 contests. They’ve also been hitting the over in six of those matchups, pointing towards their ability to produce runs even in close games.
On the Cardinals’ side, they’ve averaged 5 runs per game in their last 10 outings, and with players like Alec Burleson, who leads the team with 21 home runs, and Brendan Donovan, who boasts a solid .266 batting average, St. Louis has been keeping pace offensively.
Both teams’ recent scoring output makes the over a strong option.
FOX Sports Model: Betting Insights
The FOX Sports Model provides a well-rounded take on the game, aligning closely with the predictions from Dimers and BetQL. It gives Seattle a 53.3% implied probability of winning based on their performance as slight favorites, but also highlights the Cardinals’ solid performance as underdogs, winning 50.7% of games in that role this season.
The model also points out that both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently. The Cardinals have hit the over in six of their last 10 games, making the O/U bet particularly intriguing. Like the Action Network, FOX Sports suggests that the over is the best value play given both teams’ recent form.
Betting Recommendations
Considering insights from all five models, here’s a summary of the best betting options for the game:
- Moneyline: While the Mariners are slight favorites, the models suggest that it could go either way, with Dimers giving a 50-50 chance and BetQL highlighting the Cardinals’ strong performance as underdogs. If you’re feeling risk-tolerant, consider betting on the Cardinals at +105.
- Run Line: The Cardinals +1.5 run line looks like a safer bet, as multiple models, including Dimers and SportsLine, expect a close game with St. Louis likely covering.
- Total Runs (O/U): The over 7.5 total runs seems to be the most consistent recommendation across models, especially given the recent offensive performances from both teams. Action Network, FOX Sports, and Dimers all suggest that a higher-scoring game is likely.
PICK: Over 7.5 – LOSE
