The New York Mets take on the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park in San Diego, CA. This matchup has garnered attention for several reasons, not least because of its potential impact on the postseason race. With the Padres favored by 1.5 runs and the total set at 7.5, this game presents an intriguing challenge for analysts and bettors alike. In this post, we’ll delve into the top MLB prediction models, including BetQL and SportsLine, and combine them with my analysis to provide the best possible pick for this game.
Top 5 Successful MLB Prediction Models
When it comes to predicting MLB outcomes, certain models have consistently outperformed others. Here are the top five models based on historical accuracy:
- PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm): Developed by Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA uses a player-centric approach, analyzing individual player performance and projecting future outcomes based on historical data.
- Davenport Translations: This model, created by Clay Davenport, adjusts player statistics for league and park effects, providing a more accurate representation of a player’s contribution.
- Fangraphs’ ZiPS (Szymborski Projection System): ZiPS is a player-based model that projects future performance based on similarity scores, with a strong emphasis on recent performance trends.
- FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Model: This model uses a team-based approach, assigning each team an Elo rating that adjusts after every game based on the outcome and margin of victory.
- BetQL: BetQL’s model incorporates a wide range of data points, including team performance, player injuries, and betting market activity, to provide comprehensive predictions for each game.
BetQL and SportsLine Predictions
Both BetQL and SportsLine are popular tools for bettors, offering model-driven insights into game outcomes. For the game, here’s what these models predict:
- BetQL: BetQL’s model favors the Padres, giving them a 61% chance of winning. It predicts a final score of 4.2-3.1 in favor of San Diego. The model also suggests that the total will go under 7.5 runs, given the pitching matchup and recent trends.
- SportsLine: SportsLine’s model is slightly more optimistic about the Padres, predicting a final score of 4.5-2.8. The model also leans towards the under, noting that both teams have struggled offensively in recent games.
My Analysis: Incorporating the Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule
To enhance our prediction, let’s incorporate a Pythagorean expectation approach, which estimates a team’s expected win percentage based on runs scored and allowed. Additionally, we’ll factor in the strength of schedule (SOS) to adjust for the quality of opponents faced by each team.
Pythagorean Expectation
The Pythagorean theorem in baseball is expressed as:
Expected Win Percentage=RS2RS2+RA2\text{Expected Win Percentage} = \frac{RS^2}{RS^2 + RA^2}
Where:
- RS = Runs Scored
- RA = Runs Allowed
For the Mets:
- RS = 4.0 (Season average)
- RA = 4.2 (Season average)
Expected Win Percentage = 4.024.02+4.22\frac{4.0^2}{4.0^2 + 4.2^2} ≈ 0.476
For the Padres:
- RS = 4.3 (Season average)
- RA = 3.9 (Season average)
Expected Win Percentage = 4.324.32+3.92\frac{4.3^2}{4.3^2 + 3.9^2} ≈ 0.548
Based on these calculations, the Padres have a slight edge, with an expected win percentage of 54.8%.
Strength of Schedule (SOS)
The Padres have faced tougher competition this season, with an SOS of +0.05, meaning they have played slightly above-average teams. The Mets, on the other hand, have had an easier schedule with an SOS of -0.03. Adjusting for this, the Padres’ expected win percentage increases slightly, reinforcing their status as favorites.
Averaging the Models’ Predictions
To arrive at the best possible pick, let’s average the predictions from the top models and my analysis:
- PECOTA: Padres 4.3 – Mets 3.2
- Davenport Translations: Padres 4.4 – Mets 3.1
- ZiPS: Padres 4.2 – Mets 3.3
- FiveThirtyEight: Padres 4.5 – Mets 3.0
- BetQL: Padres 4.2 – Mets 3.1
- SportsLine: Padres 4.5 – Mets 2.8
- My Prediction: Padres 4.3 – Mets 3.2
Averaged Final Score: Padres 4.34 – Mets 3.10
Final Prediction and Best Pick
Based on the averaged model predictions and my analysis, the San Diego Padres are likely to win this game with a final score around 4.3-3.1. The spread of 1.5 is likely to be covered by the Padres, and the total will likely stay under 7.5 runs.
Best Pick:
- Moneyline: San Diego Padres
- Spread: Padres -1.5
- Total: Under 7.5
PICK: Padres -1.5 – LOSE
