Don’t miss your chance to win $1000 in the ATS Wins countdown to kickoff giveaway
Date: Friday, August 23, 2024
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Arena: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Baseball is a game of inches, but sometimes it feels like it’s more a game of momentum. As the Reds and Pirates gear up for their second game of a four-game series, the Reds are desperately seeking that momentum to pull themselves back into playoff contention. The Pirates, on the other hand, are building on a solid foundation of recent victories, aiming to keep the Reds at bay and further their own playoff aspirations. Let’s dig into the current form of both teams, key statistics, and why this matchup promises to be a tightly contested battle. By the end of this analysis, you’ll see why the Pirates’ Money Line at -120 seems like a smart move.
Current Form and Key Statistics
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds, with a 62-66 record, have been flirting with a .500 mark for most of the second half of the season. They haven’t seen a .500 record since early May, and while they’ve had their chances—like after sweeping the Cardinals earlier this month—they’ve struggled to capitalize, going 2-5 since then.
Left-hander Andrew Abbott will take the mound for the Reds, bringing with him a 10-10 record and a 3.72 ERA. Unfortunately, Abbott’s recent form hasn’t been encouraging. He’s 1-4 in his last five starts with a 6.12 ERA, and his most recent outing saw him allow four runs over five innings against the Kansas City Royals. Although Abbott has had some success against the Pirates in the past, this recent rough patch raises concerns about his ability to silence the Pittsburgh bats.
Offensively, the Reds have been inconsistent. While they have the firepower to put up runs, their inability to string together hits at crucial moments has cost them games. Players like Jonathan India and Elly De La Cruz need to step up if the Reds hope to make a push towards .500 and beyond.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates, currently sitting with a slightly better record, have shown signs of resurgence as the season progresses. They dominated the Reds in the series opener, with a 7-0 victory that featured a stellar performance from Paul Skenes on the mound and a clutch 3-RBI game from Bryan De La Cruz.
Bailey Falter will start for the Pirates, coming off a strong performance against the Seattle Mariners where he allowed just two runs over 5 2/3 innings. Falter has been reliable, posting a 4.02 ERA this season, and his ability to limit damage will be crucial against a Reds lineup that can explode if given the opportunity.
Defensively, the Pirates have been solid, with improved performances in the field contributing to their recent success. Offensively, Bryan De La Cruz has been a key contributor, driving in five runs over the last three games. His presence in the middle of the lineup, coupled with the Pirates’ ability to manufacture runs, makes them a formidable opponent for the Reds.
Why Pick Pirates Money Line -120?
Given the information we’ve covered, let’s explore why the Pirates Money Line at -120 looks appealing:
- Recent Momentum: The Pirates are riding high after a dominant performance in the series opener. Momentum can be a powerful force in baseball, and the Pirates have it on their side.
- Pitching Matchup: Bailey Falter’s recent form is far more encouraging than that of Andrew Abbott. While Abbott has struggled, Falter has shown that he can keep opposing offenses in check. This disparity in pitching performance could be the deciding factor in a close game.
- Offensive Efficiency: The Pirates have been finding ways to score runs, whether through timely hitting or taking advantage of opponents’ mistakes. With Bryan De La Cruz hot at the plate, the Pirates are in a good position to capitalize on Abbott’s recent struggles.
- Defensive Reliability: The Pirates’ defense has been reliable, minimizing errors and making plays that keep them in games. This stability is critical in a matchup where every run will count.
Supporting Scores from Successful MLB Models
- Pythagorean Expectation Model: Predicts Pirates 4, Reds 3
- BaseRuns Model: Predicts Pirates 5, Reds 4
- Davenport Model: Predicts Pirates 3, Reds 2
- PECOTA Model: Predicts Pirates 4, Reds 3
- ELO Ratings Model: Predicts Pirates 4, Reds 3
These models consistently favor the Pirates, suggesting that they have a slight but consistent edge over the Reds in this matchup. The Pythagorean model, which uses run differential to estimate win probability, further solidifies the Pirates as the more likely victors.
Matchup Analysis: Pitching, Offense, and Defense
Looking deeper into the starting pitchers, Andrew Abbott’s recent decline is concerning. His ERA has ballooned over his last few starts, and his control issues have been more pronounced. This could spell trouble against a Pirates lineup that is patient and capable of making pitchers work hard for outs.
Bailey Falter, on the other hand, has been steady. His ability to mix pitches effectively and induce weak contact makes him a tough matchup for the Reds, who have been inconsistent at the plate. Falter’s recent uptick in strikeouts also suggests he’s finding a groove, which could be bad news for Cincinnati.
Offensively, the Pirates have been more reliable in recent games, with key contributions from players like Bryan De La Cruz. If the Reds can’t get to Falter early, they may struggle to generate offense, especially if they fall behind and have to face the Pirates’ bullpen, which has been effective in closing out games.
Conclusion: Pirates Hold the Edge
In conclusion, the Pirates have the upper hand in this matchup. Their recent form, more consistent pitching, and efficient offense make them the smarter pick, especially with the Money Line at -120. The Reds have shown flashes of brilliance this season, but their inability to maintain consistency, particularly in critical moments, has been their downfall.
With the Pirates’ slight but clear advantage across multiple facets of the game, we can expect a final score that hovers around 4-3 or 5-4 in favor of Pittsburgh. This aligns with the predictions of successful MLB models and further supports the case for picking the Pirates Money Line.
So, if you’re looking for a confident choice in this game, the Pirates seem poised to take another victory, and the Money Line at -120 offers good value.
PICK: Pirates Money Line -120
