Mets Seek Series Clincher Against Rooker-Less A’s: Will the Runs Flow at Citi Field?

Thursday, August 15, 2024 at 1:10 PM ET, Citi Field in Queens, New York

The New York Mets, fueled by their playoff aspirations, are set to host the Oakland Athletics in a pivotal rubber match at Citi Field on Thursday afternoon. With both teams showcasing contrasting recent performances and key players missing from the lineup, this interleague clash promises to be an intriguing contest. As we delve into the statistics, trends, and expert predictions, the UNDER 8.5 emerges as a compelling bet for this matchup.

Top MLB Prediction Models & Famous Models with Total Runs:

• PECOTA: Mets 4 – Athletics 2 (Total Runs: 6)
• ZiPS: Mets 5 – Athletics 3 (Total Runs: 8)
• FiveThirtyEight’s Elo-based model: Mets 5 – Athletics 2 (Total Runs: 7)
• The BAT: Mets 6 – Athletics 3 (Total Runs: 9)
• FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections: Mets 4 – Athletics 3 (Total Runs: 7)

New York Mets: Riding the Momentum

The Mets, after a recent four-game skid, bounced back with a resounding 9-1 victory on Wednesday night. This win injected a much-needed dose of confidence into a team that has been steadily climbing the NL Wild Card standings. Spearheading this resurgence has been Francisco Lindor, whose offensive prowess and leadership have been instrumental in the Mets’ success.

Jose Quintana: The Mets’ Steady Hand

Taking the mound for the Mets is veteran left-hander Jose Quintana. With a 6-8 record and a 4.10 ERA, Quintana may not boast flashy numbers, but his consistency and ability to eat innings have been invaluable for the Mets. His impressive 2.22 SO/BB ratio and 1.25 WHIP suggest he possesses excellent control and the ability to limit baserunners. Furthermore, Quintana has historically fared well against the Athletics, boasting a 2-0 record and a 3.04 ERA in nine career appearances.

Offensive Outlook:

The Mets’ offense, which struggled during their recent losing streak, roared back to life on Wednesday, scoring nine runs. With a team batting average of .249, the Mets possess a balanced lineup capable of producing runs. The return to form of key hitters like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor bodes well for their offensive prospects in this matchup.

Oakland Athletics: Navigating Challenges

The Athletics, despite their underdog status, have been a tough opponent for many teams in recent weeks. However, they enter this game facing some significant challenges. The absence of Brent Rooker, their leading home run hitter and RBI producer, due to paternity leave, leaves a gaping hole in their lineup.

Mitch Spence: A Young Arm with Potential

The Athletics will counter with rookie right-hander Mitch Spence. While Spence has shown promise, his 4.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP indicate he’s still developing command and consistency. Facing a Mets lineup that is finding its groove could prove to be a stern test for the young pitcher.

Offensive Concerns:

The Athletics’ offense, which ranks near the bottom of the league with a .231 batting average, will be further hampered by Rooker’s absence. While they have shown flashes of brilliance, their inconsistency at the plate raises concerns about their ability to generate runs against a pitcher like Quintana.

Why the Under 8.5 is a Smart Bet

Several factors point towards a lower-scoring game, making the Under 8.5 an attractive bet:

1. Pitching Matchup: Quintana’s experience and track record against the Athletics, coupled with Spence’s potential struggles against a potent Mets lineup, suggest a game where runs might be at a premium.

2. Athletics’ Offensive Woes: The absence of Rooker significantly weakens the Athletics’ offense, making it challenging for them to put up a big number on the scoreboard.

3. Mets’ Recent Pitching Success: The Mets’ pitching staff has shown signs of improvement, limiting opponents to just one run in their previous game.

4. Expert Predictions: Several top MLB prediction models, including PECOTA, ZiPS, and FiveThirtyEight’s Elo-based model, forecast a combined score of fewer than 8.5 runs.

5. Pythagorean Theorem & Strength of Schedule: The underlying statistics suggest that both teams might be slightly overvalued or undervalued based on their actual records, further supporting the notion of a lower-scoring game.

Conclusion

While baseball is inherently unpredictable, the confluence of factors in this matchup points towards a game where runs might be hard to come by. The Mets’ pitching advantage, the Athletics’ offensive struggles, and the expert predictions all align to make the Under 8.5 a compelling bet.