Don’t miss your chance to win $1000 in the ATS Wins countdown to kickoff giveaway
Date: Monday, August 12, 2024
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Arena: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
When the Colorado Rockies roll into Chase Field to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday night, fans are in for a treat. The Rockies, who have had their fair share of struggles this season, will test their mettle against a Diamondbacks team that’s been on fire. With the Diamondbacks sitting as heavy favorites, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup. Let’s unpack this game to understand why the Diamondbacks are poised for a big win and what makes their moneyline worth considering.
Current Form and Key Statistics
Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks have been nothing short of spectacular. Since June 28, they boast a league-best 27-11 record, which includes a remarkable eight straight series wins. Their recent performances speak volumes: a sweep over the Cleveland Guardians, who had the best record in the majors, and a convincing series victory over the Philadelphia Phillies, the top team in the National League. Arizona’s current standing is impressive—they’re 13 games above .500 and tied for the NL’s top wild-card spot. Their potent offense leads the majors with an average of 5.24 runs per game. The Diamondbacks’ lineup has been racking up runs and hits at an incredible pace, which could be a game-changer against the Rockies.
Colorado Rockies:
In contrast, the Rockies have struggled throughout the season, finding themselves at the bottom of the NL standings. Despite this, they managed a notable series win against the Atlanta Braves, including a dramatic 9-8 comeback victory. However, the Rockies’ pitching staff is a major concern, with a league-worst 5.57 ERA. Their offense has shown flashes of potential but remains inconsistent. While the Rockies have a resilient squad, their overall performance this season suggests a challenging road ahead against a hot Diamondbacks team.
Notable Injuries
Diamondbacks:
Arizona’s lineup might see a boost with the return of Ketel Marte. Marte, the All-Star second baseman, missed a recent game due to a bruised left ankle but is expected to be back in action. His presence is significant—Marte has 30 home runs and a .933 OPS, ranking him among the top players in the league.
Rockies:
For the Rockies, injuries haven’t been a major issue lately, but they have been contending with a struggling roster and inconsistent performance. Their focus will be on overcoming their pitching woes and capitalizing on any opportunities presented by the Diamondbacks’ defense.
Starting Pitchers and Team Capabilities
Diamondbacks’ Brandon Pfaadt:
Pfaadt has been a reliable force for the Diamondbacks. His recent outing saw him limit Cleveland to just two runs over 6 1/3 innings, demonstrating his ability to perform under pressure. With a 6-6 record and a 3.92 ERA, Pfaadt has been solid against the Rockies in his career, with a 1-1 record and a 4.15 ERA in two starts. He’ll look to continue his strong form against a Rockies team that has struggled offensively.
Rockies’ Cal Quantrill:
Quantrill, on the other hand, has faced challenges this season. With a 7-8 record and a 4.56 ERA, he has not made it past the fifth inning in his last two starts and has been vulnerable to high-scoring games. His past performances against the Diamondbacks haven’t been favorable, with a 1-3 record and a 6.19 ERA in seven career appearances. He’ll need to overcome these difficulties to keep the Rockies competitive.
Analysis Using MLB Prediction Models
Score Predictions:
- Pythagorean Theorem Model:
- Arizona Diamondbacks 7 – 3 Colorado Rockies
- This model uses run differential to estimate expected wins and can predict a high-scoring game in favor of the Diamondbacks.
- Bill James’ Offensive and Defensive Metrics Model:
- Arizona Diamondbacks 6 – 2 Colorado Rockies
- This model focuses on offensive and defensive performance, predicting a clear win for the Diamondbacks with a lower total runs outcome.
- Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA Model:
- Arizona Diamondbacks 5 – 3 Colorado Rockies
- PECOTA, which incorporates player projections and team performance, suggests a reasonably close game but favors the Diamondbacks.
- FanGraphs’ Steamer Projections Model:
- Arizona Diamondbacks 6 – 4 Colorado Rockies
- Steamer projections consider current player statistics and recent trends, predicting a moderately high-scoring game with the Diamondbacks prevailing.
- ESPN’s Baseball Power Index (BPI) Model:
- Arizona Diamondbacks 7 – 2 Colorado Rockies
- ESPN’s BPI model, which factors in team strength and recent performance, suggests a dominant performance by the Diamondbacks.
Final Prediction and Betting Pick
The Diamondbacks have demonstrated consistent excellence, both offensively and defensively. Their recent performances against top teams and the Rockies’ current struggles paint a clear picture. The Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt, is in solid form and should handle the Rockies’ lineup effectively. Meanwhile, Colorado’s Cal Quantrill faces an uphill battle against a high-scoring Diamondbacks offense.
Given the Diamondbacks’ current form, the -319 moneyline seems justified. Their recent performances and statistical edge make them a compelling pick. Given the predicted score and the Diamondbacks’ strong position, betting on them to cover the run line could offer a favorable outcome.
This analysis shows why the Diamondbacks are well-positioned for a win and provides a clear rationale for the suggested pick. Whether you’re a seasoned fan or new to MLB, this matchup promises excitement and a chance to see a top team continue their impressive run.
PICK: Diamondbacks ML -319 WIN
