The Cardinals look to even the series against the Cubs as they return to Wrigley Field. Both teams have had their ups and downs, but a victory today would be crucial for their playoff aspirations.
The Cubs are favored at home, but both teams are dealing with significant pitching injuries. Here’s how they might affect the AI picks:
- BetQL: Cubs (-115) – No adjustment needed.
- ESPN: Cubs (56% win probability) – No adjustment needed.
- SportsLine: Cubs (-1) – No adjustment needed.
- Dimers Bettorverse: Cubs (-105) – No adjustment needed.
- NumberFire (high win %): Cubs (54% win probability) – No adjustment needed.
Average Adjusted Pick: Cubs (-113) with a 55% win probability.
Pythagorean Theorem:
Both teams are slightly above their win totals based on runs scored and allowed, suggesting a potential close game, aligning somewhat with the Over/Under line. Injuries and pitching matchups might play a bigger role here.
Injury Report and Recent Trends:
- Cardinals: They are dealing with multiple pitching injuries, but their offense has shown improvement.
- Cubs: They are also dealing with pitching injuries, and their recent performance has been inconsistent.
Matchup Analysis:
- Cardinals: Erick Fedde looks to build on his recent success against the Cubs’ offense.
- Cubs: Javier Assad needs to continue his strong pitching to contain the Cardinals’ offense.
Considering All Factors:
- The Cardinals’ offense is potent, and their pitching staff has shown improvement.
- The Cubs’ pitching staff is depleted, and their offense has been inconsistent.
St. Louis Cardinals 4 – Chicago Cubs 3
Reasoning:
- The Cardinals’ offense should be able to score runs against the Cubs’ pitching staff.
- The Cubs’ offense might struggle against Erick Fedde and the Cardinals’ pitching.
- The total score (Over/Under 8) leans slightly towards Over due to both teams’ offensive capabilities.
Cardinals Win Close Divisional Matchup
The AI models favor the Cubs (average: Cubs -113, 55% win probability), but our analysis leans towards the Cardinals. The Cardinals’ offense and pitching depth give them the edge, but the Cubs could make it a close game. The total score is likely to be around the Over/Under line.
Pick: Take the St. Louis Cardinals +110 moneyline. ***LOSE***
