A classic National League Central rivalry heats up as the Cardinals take on the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Both teams have faced their share of challenges, but with playoff hopes on the line, every game is crucial.
The Cubs are favored at home, but both teams are dealing with significant pitching injuries. Here’s how they might affect the AI picks:
- BetQL: Cubs (-115) – No adjustment needed.
- ESPN: Cubs (56% win probability) – No adjustment needed.
- SportsLine: Cubs (-1) – No adjustment needed.
- Dimers Bettorverse: Cubs (-105) – No adjustment needed.
- NumberFire (high win %): Cubs (54% win probability) – No adjustment needed.
Average Adjusted Pick: Cubs (-113) with a 55% win probability.
Pythagorean Theorem:
Both teams are slightly above their win totals based on runs scored and allowed, suggesting a potential close game, aligning somewhat with the Over/Under line. Injuries and pitching matchups might play a bigger role here.
Injury Report and Recent Trends:
- Cardinals: They are dealing with multiple pitching injuries, but their offense has shown improvement.
- Cubs: They are also dealing with pitching injuries, and their recent performance has been inconsistent.
Matchup Analysis:
- Cardinals: Sonny Gray is a solid starter, and their offense has been productive.
- Cubs: Shota Imanaga needs to be on top of his game against the Cardinals’ strong offense.
Considering All Factors:
- The Cardinals’ offense is potent, and Sonny Gray provides a solid pitching option.
- The Cubs’ pitching staff is depleted, and their offense has been inconsistent.
St. Louis Cardinals 5 – Chicago Cubs 3
Reasoning:
- The Cardinals’ offense should be able to score runs against the Cubs’ pitching staff.
- The Cubs’ offense might struggle against Sonny Gray and the Cardinals’ pitching.
- The total score (Over/Under 8) leans slightly towards Over due to both teams’ offensive capabilities.
Cardinals Win Close Divisional Matchup
The AI models favor the Cubs (average: Cubs -113, 55% win probability), but our analysis leans towards the Cardinals. The Cardinals’ offense and pitching depth give them the edge, but the Cubs could make it a close game. The total score is likely to be around the Over/Under line.
Pick: Take the St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 run line. ***WINNER***
