The Astros travel to Oakland to face a red-hot A’s team. The Astros’ offense remains a threat, but their pitching depth is a major question mark. The A’s have won 5 of their last 6 and boast a capable starter in JP Sears. Can the Astros overcome their injury woes or will the A’s continue their winning streak at home?
- BetQL: Athletics (+120) – No adjustment needed.
- ESPN: Astros (52% win probability) – Adjusted slightly down to Astros (50%) due to the Astros’ pitching injuries and the A’s recent form.
- SportsLine: Athletics (+1) – No adjustment needed.
- Dimers Bettorverse: Athletics (+115) – No adjustment needed.
- NumberFire (high win %): Astros (51% win probability) – Adjusted down to Astros (49%) due to the extent of the Astros’ pitching injuries.
Average Adjusted Pick: Athletics (+118) with a 50% win probability.
Pythagorean Theorem:
The Astros are slightly above their win total based on runs scored and allowed, while the Athletics are significantly below theirs. This suggests a potential win for the Astros, but the pitching matchup and recent trends complicate things.
Injury Report and Recent Trends:
- Astros: Hunter Brown is a young starter, and they’re missing several key pitchers. Their recent struggles are concerning.
- Athletics: JP Sears has pitched well, and they’ve been hot despite injuries.
Matchup Analysis:
- Astros: Their offense needs to carry the team with their depleted pitching staff.
- Athletics: JP Sears needs to continue his success against a potent Astros lineup.
Considering All Factors:
- The Astros’ offense is strong, but their pitching depth is severely tested.
- The Athletics are playing with confidence and have a capable starter going in JP Sears.
Houston Astros 3 – Oakland Athletics 4
Reasoning:
- The Athletics’ hot streak could continue against the Astros’ inexperienced starter.
- The Astros’ offense might struggle to overcome the A’s pitching depth despite missing key players.
- The total score (Over/Under 8.5) leans slightly towards Under due to the potential for strong pitching performances on both sides, considering the injuries.
A’s Take Advantage of Astros’ Injuries
The AI models favor the Athletics (average: Athletics +118, 50% win probability), and our analysis leans towards them as well. The Astros’ pitching injuries and the A’s recent hot streak make this an upset opportunity for Oakland. The total score is likely to be lower due to the pitching matchups.
Pick: Take the Oakland Athletics +135 Moneyline. ***LOSE***
