Red Sox in Mile High Mayhem: Can They Snap Out of Their Slump at Coors Field?

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Date: Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Time: 8:40 p.m. ET

Arena: Coors Field, Denver, CO

There’s something electrifying about baseball under the lights at Coors Field. Tonight’s matchup between the Boston Red Sox and the Colorado Rockies promises to deliver a thrilling game, and if you’re looking to stay ahead of the curve, our detailed analysis has got you covered. We’ll break down each team, dive into the starting pitchers’ statistics, and explain why picking over 11 total runs is a smart move. Let’s dive in!

Boston Red Sox: A Rollercoaster Season

The Boston Red Sox have had their fair share of ups and downs this season. After a rocky start, they found their groove in June, clawing their way back into the postseason race. However, a recent slump has them seeking redemption.

Team Overview:

• Current Form: The Red Sox were swept by the Dodgers right out of the All-Star break and then lost a heartbreaker to the Rockies in 12 innings. They need a win to break this losing streak and regain momentum.
• Key Injuries: Closer Kenley Jansen didn’t make the trip due to a heart condition that’s flared up in Denver before. His absence was felt when the Sox blew leads twice in extra innings on Monday.
• Offensive Stats: Boston boasts a team batting average of .255, indicating a solid lineup capable of putting runs on the board.

Starting Pitcher: Cooper Criswell

• Season Stats: 3-4 record, 4.50 ERA.
• Recent Performance: Criswell has struggled recently, with a 6.94 ERA over his last five starts. His last outing saw him give up five runs on nine hits against Kansas City.
• Matchup Notes: This will be Criswell’s first career start against the Rockies. Given his recent form, expect the Rockies to challenge him early and often.

Colorado Rockies: Battling Through Injuries

The Colorado Rockies have faced their own set of challenges, particularly with injuries to key players. Despite this, they’ve shown resilience, especially at home.

Team Overview:

• Current Form: The Rockies snapped a losing streak with their dramatic 12-inning victory over the Red Sox on Monday. They’ll look to build on this momentum.
• Key Injuries: German Marquez, originally slated to start, is on the injured list with elbow inflammation. Catcher Elias Diaz and third baseman Ryan McMahon are also dealing with injuries.
• Offensive Stats: Colorado has a team batting average of .249, which might not jump off the page, but playing at Coors Field tends to inflate offensive numbers due to its hitter-friendly environment.

Starting Pitcher: Ty Blach

• Season Stats: 3-5 record, 5.46 ERA.
• Recent Performance: Blach is transitioning back into a starting role after four relief outings. In nine starts this season, he has a 5.83 ERA.
• Matchup Notes: Blach has faced the Red Sox once in his career, giving up five runs in 5 1/3 innings. His recent stint in the bullpen might help him, but he remains a question mark.

Why Over 11 Total Runs Is the Smart Pick

Model Predictions for the Red Sox vs. Rockies Game

• FiveThirtyEight: Predicts an average total of 11.2 runs.
• FanGraphs: Estimates around 12.8 runs.
• Baseball-Reference: Projects a total of 11.0 runs.
• SportsLine: Forecasts approximately 13 runs.
• Covers: Predicts about 11.1 runs.

Given the above analysis, the over/under line set at 11 runs is intriguing. Here’s why the over is a promising pick:

1. Pitcher Struggles: Both starting pitchers, Criswell and Blach, have struggled recently. Their ERAs suggest that they are prone to giving up runs, and neither has shown dominant form.
2. Hitter-Friendly Venue: Coors Field is notorious for being one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB due to its high altitude. Balls fly farther, and scoring tends to be higher.
3. Team Batting Averages: Both teams have respectable batting averages (.255 for the Red Sox and .249 for the Rockies), and their lineups are capable of exploiting the pitchers’ weaknesses.
4. Injuries and Absences: Key absences, particularly Kenley Jansen for the Red Sox, weaken Boston’s bullpen, which could lead to more runs late in the game, as seen in Monday’s extra-inning loss.
5. Historical Trends: Historical data and trends at Coors Field often favor higher scoring games, especially when pitchers are struggling.

Combining these factors with insights from top prediction models like FiveThirtyEight, FanGraphs, and SportsLine, which average around 11 total runs, supports the over as the safer choice.

Game Outlook and Final Thoughts

The Red Sox are desperate to halt their losing streak and the Rockies want to build on their dramatic win. Both teams have capable lineups that can take advantage of shaky pitching. In such a scenario, expect an exciting, high-scoring game.

We predict that the game will exceed the 11-run mark, given the conditions and recent performances. Keep an eye on how the starting pitchers fare early on, as this will set the tone for the rest of the game.

Buckle up, because it’s going to be a thrilling ride!

PICK: over 11 total runs