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Matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers promises to be a battle, with both teams boasting strong offenses despite facing injury woes. To make the most informed pick, let’s analyze various prediction models, Pythagorean theory, strength of schedule, and current trends.
Injury Report:
- Giants: Catcher Tom Murphy, starting pitchers Keaton Winn, Robbie Ray, and Alex Cobb, relievers Tristan Beck and Ethan Small are all out.
- Dodgers: Shortstop Mookie Betts and starting pitcher Walker Buehler are sidelined. Relief pitchers Ryan Brasier, Connor Brogdon, Michael Grove are also unavailable.
These missing players, particularly Mookie Betts for the Dodgers, impact offensive capabilities.
Prediction Models:
We’ll consult five successful MLB prediction models alongside BetQL and SportsLine:
- Dimers: Dodgers with a 55% win probability.
- SportsChatPlace: Not available yet for this specific game.
- The Win Forecast: Dodgers favored.
- Baseball Reference: Uses Pythagorean expectation (runs scored vs. runs allowed) – to be calculated later.
- Fangraphs: Not available yet for this specific game.
- BetQL: Leaning Dodgers with a slight edge.
- SportsLine: Dodgers with a 53% win probability.
Pythagorean Theorem and Strength of Schedule (SOS):
The Pythagorean theorem estimates a team’s win-loss record based on runs scored and allowed. We’ll need the Giants’ and Dodgers’ current run data to calculate this. Additionally, factoring in Strength of Schedule (SOS) provides a more nuanced picture. The Dodgers have arguably faced a tougher schedule, potentially inflating their allowed runs.
Putting it All Together:
Based on the prediction models, the Dodgers seem favored with a slight edge. However, the Giants’ pitching depth could be a factor considering the Dodgers’ bullpen injuries.
Here’s the Average Pick:
- Average Win Probability: (Dodgers’ Probability from Each Source) / (Number of Sources) = (55% + Slight Edge + Favored + ? + 53%) / 7 (waiting on Baseball Reference) = Likely skews towards the Dodgers (around 55-60%).
- Run Prediction: Using Pythagorean theorem with each team’s season data and adjusting for SOS will provide a more specific prediction.
My Take:
While the Dodgers appear favored, the Giants’ pitching depth shouldn’t be underestimated. The final score will likely be a close one. Here’s a possible scenario:
- Dodgers: 5 Runs (accounting for missing Betts)
- Giants: 4 Runs (accounting for recent struggles)
PICK: OVER 8.5 – LOSE
