Diamondbacks vs. Cubs: A Clash of Momentum and Mystery in the Windy City

Friday Jul 19, 2024 at 6:20:00 PM UTC, Wrigley Field Chicago, IL

The MLB season is heating up as the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs prepare to face off in a three-game series at Wrigley Field following the All-Star break. Both teams enter the series with their eyes on the playoffs, making this matchup a pivotal one in the race for the wild-card spots. However, the question remains: Which team will emerge victorious and will the total runs exceed 7.5?

Top MLB Prediction Models

1. PECOTA: Diamondbacks: 5 runs, Cubs: 4 runs
2. ZiPS: Diamondbacks: 5 runs, Cubs: 4 runs
3. FiveThirtyEight’s Model: Diamondbacks: 4 runs, Cubs: 5 runs
4. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA: Diamondbacks: 4 runs, Cubs: 3 runs
5. FanGraphs Depth Charts Projections: Diamondbacks: 5 runs, Cubs: 4 runs

Famous Models:

• Bill James’ Pythagorean Expectation: Diamondbacks: 4.5 runs, Cubs: 4.2 runs

Diamondbacks: Can the Snakes Keep Slithering Forward?

The Diamondbacks finished the first half of the season strong, winning four of their last five games. They boast a team batting average of .254 and have hit 102 home runs, showing their offensive potential. However, their pitching has been a concern, with a 4.56 ERA. Ryne Nelson will take the mound for the Diamondbacks in the series opener. While his 6-6 record and 4.98 ERA may not inspire confidence, he has pitched well against the Cubs in his limited career starts, posting a 3.00 ERA. The Diamondbacks’ offense will need to provide run support for Nelson if they want to secure a win in the first game.

Cubs: Home Sweet Home at Wrigley?

The Cubs enter the series with a 47-51 record, 3 1/2 games out of the final wild-card spot. Their offense has been inconsistent, with a team batting average of .235. However, they showed flashes of power before the break, hitting six home runs in their last game. Their pitching staff has been their strength, with a 3.79 ERA. Justin Steele, who will start the series opener for the Cubs, has been impressive this season with a 2.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. If Steele can continue his stellar performance, the Cubs will have a significant advantage on the mound.

Prediction Models and the Over/Under Debate

Several MLB prediction models have weighed in on this matchup, offering varying predictions for the total runs scored. PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, and Bill James’ Pythagorean Expectation all predict a total of around seven runs, while ZiPS and FanGraphs Depth Charts Projections lean towards eight runs. While these models provide valuable insights, it’s important to consider other factors that could influence the outcome of the game.

Why Picking Over 7.5 Total Runs is a Better Bet

Despite the prediction models suggesting a total of seven or eight runs, there are several reasons why betting on the over could be a smarter move:

1. Offensive Potential: Both teams have shown they can put runs on the board, with the Diamondbacks boasting a higher team batting average and the Cubs displaying power before the break.

2. Pitching Matchup: While Steele has been exceptional for the Cubs, Nelson has struggled at times this season. The Diamondbacks could capitalize on Nelson’s inconsistency and put up some runs early in the game.

3. Injuries: The Cubs have a long list of injured pitchers, particularly in their bullpen. If the game is close, their lack of bullpen depth could be exposed, leading to more runs scored in the later innings.

4. Wrigley Field: The friendly confines of Wrigley Field are known for being a hitter’s park, especially in warm weather. This could lead to more runs being scored by both teams.

5. Momentum: Both teams enter the series with momentum after strong finishes to the first half of the season. This could translate into aggressive play and a higher-scoring game.

Conclusion

The Diamondbacks vs. Cubs series promises to be a thrilling matchup between two teams fighting for their playoff lives. While the prediction models suggest a close, low-scoring game, several factors point towards the over being a more likely outcome. The combination of offensive potential, pitching matchups, injuries, ballpark factors, and momentum all suggest that this game could be a high-scoring affair.

Ultimately, the outcome of this series will have significant implications for the NL wild-card race. Will the Diamondbacks continue their winning ways or will the Cubs defend their home turf? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: this series is a must-watch for any baseball fan.

Pick: Over 7.5